Crisis In Changing Phase

Nepal 's geo-strategic position is such that its own internal problems have external linkages, internal players have very insignificant roles to play in managing the political crisis. That is what one can see in terai's new upsurge also.

By KESHAB POUDEL

With the announcement of an agitation by newly formed United Madhesi Democratic Front (UMDF) - a tripartite tie up of Sadbhawana Party, Madhesi Janadhikar Forum and Terai Madhes Loktantrik Party (TMLP) – the county entered into another phase of prolonged political instability. Situated between Asia 's two major powers, India and China , internal political situation here has never been the sole reason for the reemergence of newer forces strong enough to push Nepal into deeper political uncertainty. Since its formation as an independent nation, Nepal has been passing through all kinds of political upheavals and crisis. But what has been changing is the face of such forces. Whether Maoists - an ideology-based political group or UMDF- a regional based non-ideological group – all of them have similar objectives - to destabilize Nepal . Given the regional scenario, this kind of situation might continue for many more years to come.

"Madhesis have been cheated many times when negotiating with the government dominated by Pahadis in the past. We want to see the government fulfill our six point demands or they will have to face new uprising from February 17 in whole terai," thundered Rajendra Mahato, leader of Sadbhavana Party and newly formed UMDF.

The UMDF demands include constitutional guarantee of autonomous Madhes Region with the right to self determination, immediate implementation of constitutional provision regarding equal representation of all marginalized groups in all sectors of governance and immediate recruitment of Madhesis in Nepal Army. Recognition of martyrdom for all 45 Madhesis killed during the Madhes movement, state funded treatment and compensation for the injured and genuine efforts to bring armed outfits of Madhes to a negotiation table are also their demands.

"We are ready to fulfill all demands of Madhesis including the federal structure for Madhes as well as reservation for Madhesis in the government jobs, army and police," said Minister for Peace and Reconstruction Ram Chandra Poudel. "Some of their remaining demands will be fulfilled after holding the election for Constituent Assembly."

Whatever they say about their position, internal adjustments and negotiations cannot solve the present stalemate of Nepal . If it were so, the country would already have seen election for CA as soon as the government and Maoists signed Comprehensive Peace Agreement.

Internal Contradictions

Nepal is a country with heterogeneous combinations of linguistic, ethnic and regional diversities. These contradictions have always been there, which could destabilize the country.  Even terai is full of contradictions in its composition of population. As Maoists have united the various ethnic groups of hill under its ideological cover to destabilize the region, the UMDF is trying to unite all heterogeneous groups, which are divided on the basis of caste, ethnicity and linguistic groups in Terai under a single unit of Madhes. But the question is whose interests are they serving?  

According to Census of 2001, among total population in Nepal , Maithali consists of 12.3 percent of population followed by Bhojpuri 7.53, Tharu 5.19 and Awadhi 2.47. Tharus are major ethnic groups in terai consisting of 6.75 percent  and Muslims 4.27 percent. Yadavs consist of 3.94 percent while Teli, Harijan, Koiri, Kurmi, Dhanuk, Musahar, Dusad and others are also in considerable numbers.

Despite efforts to raise the unified identity as Madhesi, existing linguistic, regional and cultural differences of terai are bound to trigger search for their own identity. Tharu groups have already claimed that they are the original inhabitants of terai and others are migrants.     

"The terai encompasses great linguistic and social diversity. Madhesis speak Maithali, Bhojpuri, Awadhi and Hindi, languages also spoken across the border, while ethnic groups such as the Tharus have their own language," writes International Crisis Group Policy Report Nepal 's Troubled Terai Region 2007.

An identity-based political consciousness emerged in terai with formation of the Nepal Terai Congress under Vedananda Jha in 1951. Its core demand included an autonomous Terai, recognition of Hindi as a language and adequate representation in civil service.

Raghunath Thakur was another prominent leader who formed the Madhehs Mukti Andolan and demanded autonomy for terai, appointment of Madhesis in police, army and the bureaucracy and landownership rights. Later on Gajendra Narayan Singh established Nepal Sadbhavana Party demanding reformed citizenship laws, official recognition for Hindi, federal system and greater Madhesi representation in the civil service and security forces.

"Every society has contradictions in itself at any time of its history. This is true with the society of every country including Nepal . If these are just internal contradictions, Nepal , too, has the capability to solve it. When it involves the security interests of much larger neighbors of Nepal , it will be virtually impossible for internal forces to manage them," said a political analyst. "Being a country sandwiched between India and China , it is inconceivable to keep Nepal immune from their interest and influence."

External Role

People from different walks of life talk all the time about internal contradictions of Nepal based upon its poverty, illiteracy and remerging ethnic and regional interest. Of course, these problems are sufficient to keep Nepal all the time in conflict and instability but these are not alone the determining factors.

"These kinds of problems are there on both the side of Nepal 's bigger neighbors India and China , but they are capable of managing them with their tremendous resources and capabilities. Nepal 's neighbors have the capability to withstand and counter any of the seen and unseen malicious designs against them. But Nepal lacks that capability to deal with external machinations and encroachments," said the analyst.

The present trend of political instability and disruptions has been there since the beginning of Nepal 's statehood. "To Kathmandu , the current potentialities of external domination and subversion are not very different in kind – though they may be in degree – from those with which Nepali governments have had to contend for at least two centuries. And if the problems are not particularly new, neither is the repertory of responses devised by the Kathmandu authorities. There is a basic similarity between King Prithvi Narayan Shah's analyses of Nepal's role in the Himalayan area and his selection of tactics and that of ninth ruler in his dynasty, King Mahendra Bir Bikram Shah Dev," wrote American professor late Leo. E Rose in his book Nepal : Strategy for Survival published in 1971.

Even today, Nepal 's problem has direct link with its neighbors. "The Indian establishment appears sympathetic to Madhesi demands but does not go out of its way to pressure Kathmandu for concessions," writes ICG report. "Given the open border, a stable terai is particularly important, and New Delhi has in recent years developed a clear sense of how to use economic ties to promote more stable (and binding) political relations."

Chinese scholars, too, are carefully watching new development in Nepal 's southern plain. "We are very carefully watching the development in Nepal . We will not tolerate any kind of actions for disintegration in Nepal ," said a Chinese scholar.

The more the world relations are interlinked, the more there are reasons to get nations involved against each other. "To take Nepal 's problem in totally of the situation, one must take into account its immediate neighbors and their day to day involvement guided by their own interest – mainly the interest of security," said the analyst. "But, this is what generally people ignore to take into account even though these are so apparent to all."

Nepal lies between two titanic plates, India and China . They have bitter past with them. If they want to continue that no internal change and adjustment in Nepal can ensure peace, stability and progress –whether it is made monarchical or republic even with several new adjectives and rhetoric like federal with right to self determination and so on.

" Nepal , a country of 28 million, is sandwiched between the world's rising giants, India and China , who both have cast their eyes over the Himalayan nation as a buffer against the other. Any unrest in Nepal- hostilities have been suspended, not buried – could spill across  into their restive borderlands, particularly Chinese Tibet and the troubled Indian state of Bihar – developments that Beijing and New Delhi would view with alarm," writes  Ishaan Tharoor in Time Magazine (February 11).

Unity in Contradictions

Nepal has seen many contradictions but all of them are manageable. Nepali Congress and Maoists- who were bitter rivals till two years ago, are now better partners. Making and breaking of alliances have shown that internal players have no enmity at all.

The analyst argued, "If areas of mutual interest and understanding between India and China- which are referred as an elephant and dragon of present time - harmonize, Nepal need not go for risky experiments in politics. Nepal 's traditional structures and harmonious social relationships are enough to make it withstand any new pressure for change and readjustments."

If it was only internal contradiction, one cannot have imagined the change of alliance in Terai. Rajendra Mahato has now joined hands with his bitter rival Hridayesh Tripathy, who had played a key role to kick Mahato out of the government.

Similarly, Mahanta Thakur's bitter foe Jaya Prakash Ananda shared the same platform. Thakur - who labeled Madhesi Janadhikar Forum as a royalist and Hindu fundamentalist group till recent past – has now found Upendra Yadav as a now messiah of Madhes.

Interestingly, even now the traditional monarch is living with all his royal dignity in the Palace.

"Whether it was mesmerized or motivated, even a world wide circulated Time Magazine gave a cover page for Maoist rebels whose party has time and again found New Delhi as a suitable place to negotiate with its internal adversaries," said the analyst. "Reality is something different. Instead of the ground reality, propaganda through market media has been confusing the world opinion, which was expected to highlight the real contradictions internal as well as external."

The more Nepal is becoming unstable, the more neighbor are scared against each others' motives and designs. And the situation is becoming more and more complicated. "Given the large number of Tibetan exiles in India and Nepal-India open border, Nepal going under Indian security umbrella is serious security threat to Tibetan Autonomous Region of China," writes Wang Xiung Nepal 's National Defensive Strategy and Nepal-China Relation).

As the concerns of Nepal 's two neighbors increase, the internal forces are day by day becoming helpless and irrelevant.

"Indians and Americans are backing the agitation in terai so that election can be postponed and the Maoists are blocked from entering the government," said Maoist leader Prachanda, who came to Nepal after signing 12-point agreement with seven parties in New Delhi in 2005.

Unstable Nepal has caused much worries and apprehensions between its neighbors about their own security and national interest.

"As the budding super powers expand in influence and ambition, many see Nepal falling into the crosshairs of a new "Great Game" for the 21 st century," writes Tharoor in his article in Time Magazine.

Since long, two neighbors are trying to establish the sphere of influence. The crisis is the result of competition of Nepal 's two neighbors to take Nepal under their sphere of influence. Actually, no neighbor wants to see Nepal going to the sphere of influence of other as it involves the question of their own security interest," said the analyst.

Nepal 's geo-strategic position is such that its own internal problems have external linkages, internal players have very insignificant roles to play in managing the political crisis. That is what one can see in terai's new upsurge also.

As long as Nepal 's two neighbors continue to live in uneasiness with long border disputes, Nepal will not have peace and stability.

(Courtesy: Spotlight)

(Editor’s Note: Nepalis, wherever they live, as well as friends of Nepal around the globe are requested to contribute their views/opinions/recollections etc. on issues concerning present day Nepal to the Guest Column of Nepalnews. Length of the article should not be more than 1,000 words and may be edited for the purpose of clarity and space. Relevant photos as well as photo of the author may also be sent along with the article. Please send your write-ups to editors@mos.com.np)

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