Terai Agitation and the Possibility of CA Polls

The indefinite strike that has been called in Terai is easy to enforce as it requires just a couple of hundred activists. It is increasing becoming clear that the agitating parties lack popular support and are thus using these easy pressure tactics.

BY Bijaya Babu Shiwakoti

The indefinite general strike in the southern plains of Nepal called by the United Democratic Madhesi Front (UDMF) has hit hard life in Kathmandu and hilly regions. This incident has raised serious doubts about the state’s capacity to govern and deliver basic services to the people and also on the ethics of the agitating groups. It is relevant in this context to look at the root causes of the problem, find out possible solutions and assess whether constituent assembly elections can be held on time.

The recently formed UDMF, which includes the Madheshi Janadhikar Forum (MJF), Terai Madhesh Loktantrik Party (TMLP), and the Rajedra Mahato-led faction of the Sadbhabana Party (SP), has put forward six demands including swift implementation of the 22-point agreement the government signed with the MJF. Out of those 22 points, most of them have already been fulfilled. Some of the points of the agreement which have not yet been fulfilled include declaring martyrs the people killed during the Madhesh movement and the formation of State Restructuring Commission. The six-point demands of the UDMF are similar to the provisions of the 22-point agreements. The additional demands are ‘autonomous Madhes region’ with the right to self determination, parties fielding up to 50% candidates in the first-past-the-post system to be exempted from proportional rules of the electoral law and declaring the ‘45’ people killed during the Madhesh movement to be declared as martyrs (until recently, Madhesi activists were saying that 40 people had died in the course of the movement while the government statistics put that at 27. It must be remembered here that the numbers mentioned by the activists also include the one which was killed in a retaliatory action of one of the police officer killed by the armed assailants).

The inconsistencies in the number of people killed in the movement might have probably delayed the implementation of this particular point of the agreement. The government might have been unwilling to concede that it had martyred so many people. One reason could be that it might feel embarrassed about the fact that the government formed by the peoples’ movement is responsible for so much of death. Another reason could be the apathy of the government to this issue, which the Madheshi activists suspect. One face saving scenario for both the parties is that the government could look at the report of the judicial commission formed to probe the movement and act accordingly. This formula could also be used for providing compensation to those injured and handicapped during the movement.

There has not been any progress in setting up the State Restructuring Commission probably because of the mistrust of the Maoists rather than the lack of government’s willingness to form the commission. The fate of some six other commissions that were to be formed some time back as per the 23 point agreements among the seven parties is also the same and the reason could have been the same. The solution of this issue is to immediately form commissions which were previously agreed upon and allow the experts to carry out their work. The commissions would submit the report to the first meeting of the Constituent Assembly.

A framework has been set up for the fairer representation of the Madhesis in the state organs. The army, police and the civil service have the reservations for the women, Dalits, ethnic groups and Madhesis whether the repercussions of this decision especially in the army related to the number of women who would join it is thought of adequately or not is another question). The initiative that the army is taking in understanding the local culture and language is a step in the right direction and this can be expected from other agencies of the state as well. Political representation of all the groups has also been guaranteed by the law.

Parties fielding up to 50% candidates in the first-past-the-post system (currently this is 20%) to be exempted from proportional rules of the electoral law has indicated the nature of the future polity in Terai, that based on the origins rather than the harmonious participation of the all the people residing there. It is noteworthy that the leaders of Terai were saying that interaction among the communities should be encouraged when the electoral constituencies were being delimited (probably this argument favoured them in representation). Now, they are arguing for the polity based on origin rather than interaction among the people of different origin. What can we call it apart from hypocrisy and political opportunitism?

The autonomous Madhesh with right to self determination is the demand that is probably being used as a bargaining tool. Even the term “ free state of Terai” is also now being used to bargain for a better share of power. There are serious doubts among the Madhesi people about the practicability and feasibility of this demand as the Terai region is heterogeneous in terms of language, culture and ethnicity. Another point of view would be that a single province of Terai could be used for political blackmailing with other provinces, as precedence has already been set for such activity.

The signals that we are getting from all the concerned parties provide a glimmer of hope. The indefinite strike that has been called in Terai is easy to enforce as it requires just a couple of hundred activists. It is increasing becoming clear that the agitating parties lack popular support and are thus using these easy pressure tactics. That could one of the reasons for them to start this agitation as they want to be seen, overnight, as champions of the ‘freedom movement’. The delegation of India’s ruling Congress (I) must have put pressure on the agitating groups to participate in the polls (creating the environment for the timely constituent assembly poll was one of their TORs). And whatever might be the public posturing, it is very difficult for these parties to ignore such suggestions from the ruling party in India. The reshuffling of the government talk team and the formal letter sent by the government to the agitating parties appear to have been designed to persuade the agitating parties to participate in the polls. The response from the UDMF is also somewhat warmer compared to the response of one of its factions to the government’s earlier invitations for talks.

As for the armed groups, they have two options, either come to the negotiating table or face extinction. Their tactics are somewhat similar to the Al Qaeda in Iraq, although they have not used suicide bombing. And as we have seen in Iraq, especially the Anbar province, they will face a backlash from the communities they are claiming to represent.

The possible outlook for the political environment is the one of cautious optimism. But pressure must be put equally on both the parties to take steps carefully and wisely as a misstep is sufficient to add more misery the lives of already miserable people.

(The writer can be reached at bshiwakoti@gmail.com)

(Editor’s Note: Nepalis, wherever they live, as well as friends of Nepal around the globe are requested to contribute their views/opinions/recollections etc. on issues concerning present day Nepal to the Guest Column of Nepalnews. Length of the article should not be more than 1,000 words and may be edited for the purpose of clarity and space. Relevant photos as well as photo of the author may also be sent along with the article. Please send your write-ups to editors@mos.com.np)

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