Managing Disturbed Peace and Uncertain CA Polls

Eroding or perpetually fluctuating trust among the key political players- NC, UML and the Maoists- as well as disturbing internal rifts within each of them continues to be among the crux of the problems. The six parties and the Maoists are generous in signing ambitious agreements, including the rehashed recent 23 points accord, but been poor in implementing them.

By Dr Som P Pudasaini

By any global standards, Nepal has undoubtedly made a remarkable headway towards peace building and democratisation in the past two years with many ups, downs and uncertainties. Nevertheless, desired peace remains disturbed and the planned April 10 constituent assembly (CA) polls by and large uncertain. While the six joint meetings in key Terai towns and one in Kathmandu organised or planned by the seven-party alliance is helpful in creating right environment as well as imparting desirable messages concerning CA polls, political activities in rural areas are hardly visible. Less than 80 days away from the poll no palpable enthusiasm appears among the political class as well as the general public.

Release of 1 million rupees per MP for so called local development a day before the election code of conduct came to effect significantly lowered the moral pedestal of the political parties claiming to be the icons of democratic and revolutionary values. A poor timing and opaque decision making approach of raising the prices of petroleum products second time in three months and its withdrawal within 48 hours upon severe public protests has further tarnished the public image of political leadership and soured the environment for the polls to an extent.

The security situation in the country is yet to be conducive for free and fair polls. Effective negotiations with Madhesis and other marginalised groups to layout short and long term strategies to address their genuine demands and to firmly deal with the proliferating armed criminal groups are still incomplete. Proper utilisation of desired external support and rejection of unsolicited harmful interferences are yet to be balanced.

Eroding or perpetually fluctuating trust among the key political players- NC, UML and the Maoists- as well as disturbing internal rifts within each of them continues to be among the crux of the problems. The six parties and the Maoists are generous in signing ambitious agreements, including the rehashed recent 23 points accord, but been poor in implementing them. Reported misunderstanding concerning electoral system, republicanism and CA polls may be only a part of other agendas. Unless all expectations are fully discussed and addressed hurdles in the future are likely to hamper the peace process and the planned poll.

In the context of disturbed peace and uncertain CA polls, four sets of issues may deserve due attention. First, the political parties within and outside the SPA and the Maoists may have to be unambiguously clear on a number of political and socio-economic issues of critical importance : (a) democratic republic or democracy with some ceremonial space for monarchy, (b) federal (if federal, type and criteria for delineating federal units that ensures politico-economic viability and territorial integrity) or unitary state with adequate devolution, (c) fully proportional or mixed election system, (d) effective post-conflict post-CA roadmap and socio-economic transformation package to build a New Nepal.

For instance, Prachanda's desire to work with the "nationalist royalists", fence-sitting by RPP and RJP, utterances of Sujata and some other senior Nepali Congress leaders have confounded the parties' commitment to republicanism or monarchy in the minds of many people. Additionally, people have serious doubt on political leaders’ commitment for building an inclusive prosperous new Nepal as they have failed to present their vision on this issue and only harp on CA polls and continue bargaining for power/posts.

Second, the resolution of ethno-regional conflicts and building an inclusive polity is crucial. Genuine representational, administrative and developmental rights of Terai/ Madhes, janajatis, dalits and the residents of marginalised communities, including Karnali, must be assured through a combination of clearly defined short-run and long-term strategies.

Prompt constitution of the State Restructuring Commission manned with competent neutral professionals may offer necessary inputs for the purpose. Additionally, mass-based Madhesi political parties as well as the potential Terai-Madhesh Political Front (consisting of Tarai political parties, Madhesi Forums and possibly the armed Groups) must be utilised wisely and promptly as they could either help stabilise or destabilise Terai depending on how the six parties and the Maoists and our influential Southern neighbour play their cards.

Third, proper management of about 19,000 UNMIN verified PLA (plus several thousands rejected) as well as restructuring and further democratisation of over 90,000-strong Nepal Army (NA) remains important. Development of a National Security Strategy and adoption of a well thought out Security Sector Reform would be the most logical and scientific way of dealing with the contentious issues of integration, downsizing, politically neutral and inclusive national army. Humiliating NA with public utterances would not be in the national interest.

Fourthly, the support of international community, particularly India and then US and China is important. India has clear security and economic interests in Nepal and has always played its part, particularly in time of crises, with successes and failures. Given the fast spreading Maoists problem in a dozen states in India it may not want the Maoists to gain upper hand in Nepali politics. But it wants to retain influence over the Maoists and the political parties to ensure its interests and help resolve the conflict.

The USA probably finds difficulty in trusting many Maoist moves, including commitment to competitive politics and may wish to see it significantly weakened if not diminished. Its interest of watching China and possibly India by being engaged in Nepal would be hard to dismiss totally. The Maoists started as totally anti-Indian (anti-expansionism) and anti-USA (anti-imperialism) but have been changing their tunes in the last two years to meet their strategic moves to attain state power and international recognition. The Chinese are carefully watching the unfolding developments and increasingly engaged in recent times though they usually term political developments in Nepal as "internal matter". It is believed to be concerned with increased Indian and American involvement but has worked with the two to help resolve the conflict and protect its interests.

UNMIN is considered to have been reasonably useful so far. More effective UNMIN supported by the UN Security Council and also by India would be helpful in arms/army management support, election monitoring and human rights protection.

Consequently, while India, China and the USA are important for political and financial reasons; Japan, UN and EU will also have to be cultivated to be eager partners for funding a comprehensive peace process and post-conflict post-CA roadmap necessary to build lasting peace, progress and stability.

Clearly, Nepal is in a period of massive uncertainty and volatile transition. Wisdom of the SPA and the Maoists leaders, arms and army management, resolution of ethno-regional conflict, proper handling of international support and interferences and constructive role of civil society and professionals from the mountains, hills and Madhesh will have an important bearing on building peace, ensuring timely CA poll and progressive new Nepal. It may be prudent to ponder that a bit delayed CA formation, if necessary, which leads to broadly accepted constitution, would be less harmful to the nation than a resented one that would encounter rejection or require countless amendment as soon as it appears.

(Dr. Pudasaini is the Coordinator of the International Relations, Human Rights and Peace Committee, NCWA and can be reached at: som.pudasaini@gmail.com)

(Editor’s Note: Nepalis, wherever they live, as well as friends of Nepal around the globe are requested to contribute their views/opinions/recollections etc. on issues concerning present day Nepal to the Guest Column of Nepalnews. Length of the article should not be more than 1,000 words and may be edited for the purpose of clarity and space. Relevant photos as well as photo of the author may also be sent along with the article. Please send your write-ups to editors@mos.com.np)

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