The Butterfly Effect
We should be proactive in preventing ethnic violence by supporting relationships building across ethnic lines and by promoting equal opportunities policies.
- By Shirish Ranabhat
Nepal has a complex social structure. Characterized by a vast spread of cultural diversity and heterogeneity, this structure has become chaotic in recent years. Deterioration in our social structure has been immensely influenced by politics. Ethnic conflict has arisen and it has begun to eclipse our social harmony.
The latest move of forming a regional party and formation of many localized political cum ethnic groups in Terai indicate the growing political uncertainty. Both internal and external elements are pushing the nation towards disorder and disintegration. The result of seven party alliance’s authoritarian rule in the country for past two years and their inept governance have failed to maintain the law and order situation in the country. Governing political leaders’ lack of foresightedness and their political ambitions have become catalysts to present ethnic and, to some extent, sectarian conflicts.
The current situation of political instability, ethnic conflict, lawlessness, and uncontrollable violence in our country may be the early phase of what is popularly known in scientific world as “The Butterfly Effect.” In chaos theory (a scientific theory describing certain system that changes its behavior erratically over time), “The Butterfly Effect” refers to the discovery that in a chaotic system, tiny disturbance in the initial phase may sometimes lead to major changes in the long term behavior of the system. The same principle can be applied to human society. Tiny changes in one person's state of mind can, on occasions, lead to major changes in society as a whole.
Ethnic conflict in our country is mainly a struggle for power between two groups – the majority that is controlling the power and institutions (seven party alliance’s oligarchy, which is mostly headed by social elites) and the minority that is seeking to acquire power (organizations of different ethnic groups). We are facing a struggle from the minority/weaker ethno-nationalists for equality aimed at ensuring its survival from the threat of the powerful majority.
Minority rights and co-operation between communities are essential for sustaining social harmony. However, significant resources have not been made available to promote minority rights or peaceful coexistence in Nepal.
Violent ethnic conflicts arise when socio-cultural groups are excluded in multicultural societies. In the context of changing political scenario, these conflicts have higher chances of turning violent as the dissident groups put forth irrational political demands that may not be fulfilled. In our country, the political leadership has ignored the aspirations and demands of others for inclusion. As a result of this exclusion, many ethnic groups have alienated and turned violent over the course of time. All these factors have caused a rise, both in number and political clout, of ethnic and region-based parties. We have invited bigger problems with no solutions. Even if solutions exist, it may take many more generations to take the country back on track of peace and stability. With the rise of ethnic conflicts, the chances of getting the country towards disintegration increase.
The root cause of the growing the ethnic conflict in Nepal has been (a) the presence of ethnic antipathy, (b) precipitating events creating an emotional reaction of anger and hate (c) weak law enforcement, and (d) political parties' cruel and cynical use of communal and ethnic disagreements for short-term, narrow political gains.
We must understand that if basic needs are threatened or are neglected a long period of time, the results could be violent reactions. People do not compromise over fundamental needs and values.
What we must prevent or at least reduce is violence. We must learn how to clash as civilized creatures, not as conflict illiterates. We must always remember that there could be more differences inside a group than among groups.
The escalation of ethnic tensions cannot be arrested without radical socio-economic and political reforms. It would be a blunder to presume, however, that such reforms will automatically bring ethnic relations back to normal. Moreover, any further worsening of the social and ethnic situation will render these reforms impossible. Therefore, our country is in urgent need of an ethnic conflict prevention approach. Such an approach can be an optimal combination of various means to relieve tensions and prevent the outbreak and escalation of conflicts. Such means may include economic stimuli and sanctions; information, dialogue among the conflicting parties; creation and effective enforcement of laws in the sphere of ethnic policy, etc.
We should be proactive in preventing ethnic violence by supporting relationships building across ethnic lines and by promoting equal opportunities policies. To reduce the possibility of disintegration in a multicultural country like ours, we must keep our social harmony and socio-cultural unification intact. We must show unity in diversity. Peace and political stability can and will diminish the high amplitudes of “The Butterfly Effect” that we have been observing in our country lately.
(Ranabhat is executive member of Nepali Janasamparka Samiti, USA and can be reached at shirish.pokhareli@gmail.com)
(Editor’s Note: Nepalis, wherever they live, as well as friends of Nepal around the globe are requested to contribute their views/opinions/recollections etc. on issues concerning present day Nepal to the Guest Column of Nepalnews. Length of the article should not be more than 1,000 words and may be edited for the purpose of clarity and space. Relevant photos as well as photo of the author may also be sent along with the article. Please send your write-ups to editors@mos.com.np)
(Registration required)
