Analysing the CA Poll Results

Yes, the Maoists out-maneuvered and out-muscled other parties to gain the electoral victory in the hills, and the Terai except in areas under the influence of the Madhesi parties. Nepali people gave them the benefit of doubt, because of fear that they would go back to the jungle if humiliated and because of hope that they would bring changes they promised in their electoral manifesto.

By Dr Padam P Sharma

The post-election political map of Nepal looks all red with the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist) sweeping the Constitution Assembly (CA) polls from East to the West. While the pre-poll favorites, the CPN (UML), held on to its bastion of support at scattered constituencies throughout Nepal, the mainstream Nepali Congress mostly won by default due to vote sharing between the two leftist parties in the hills and among the Madhesi parties in the Terai. This article looks at the polling numbers of 37 constituencies the Nepali Congress has won in first past the post system (FPTP), and hypothesises, on what could have happened to NC’s performance had the attempted pre-poll alliances of the leftists and the Madhesi parties been materialised.

It is an open secret that, India in particular, the US and the western democracies in general, the mainstream Nepali media, and the elitist Nepali intellectuals at home and abroad wished the Nepali Congress and UML to win the election. They also wished the Maoists to make a third place finish so that the ultra-leftists would be tempted to remain in town and play the mainstream political game. This collective wishful thinking gave a false sense of assurance and led them to fail to assess the ‘unprecedented’ outcome of the CA polls.

Repeated attempts by Madhesi parties to forge an electoral alliance failed mainly due to lack of time. Rumours are also floating around in the Terai that India was propping the Terai Madhesh Loktrantrik Party (TMLP) to undermine the MJF and prevent a possible electoral alliance to covertly support the NC’s chances in the Terai. Similarly, repeated attempts by the Maoists to forge an alliance with the UML failed due to UML leadership’s haughtiness and the pressure from the South Block. The Indian establishment’s overt motive was to show that they favour the UML over the Maoists while covertly supporting the NC to win the election by default. The UML was a lamb the South Block could afford to sacrifice.

What would have happened had the proposed alliances been materialised? Let us assume that both the alliances (the leftist and the Madhesi) did take place before the polls. We’ll know in the future the details of the dialogue between Prachanda and Madhav Nepal about the proposed sharing of the constituencies between the two leftist parties. For the sake of argument and simplicity, let us assume that a fair deal would have been to split the constituencies into two halves of 120 seats each. The Madhesi front would also proportionately share the constituencies in Terai amongst the three main constituent parties of MJF, TMLP, and Sadhbhawana. Another assumption here is that the Nepali Congress was on its own with no chances of electoral alliance either with the left or with the right wing parties.

Let us look at the poll data from the hill and the Terai constituencies where NC has won in head-to-head contest with the leftist parties and with no significant challenge from the Madhesi alliance parties. A simple addition of the votes obtained by the Maoists and the UML show that the NC would have lost the FPTP elections to the Maoist-UML alliance in Taplejung-1, Panchthar-1, Illam-3, Jhapa-5, Morang-1, Udaypur-1, Dhanusa-2, Tanahu-2, Nuwakot-2, Bara-5, Syangja-2 and 3, Arghakhanchi-2, Nawalparasi-1 and 2, Rupandehi-3, Kapilbastu-1, Baglung-3, Parbat-1, Dailekh-1, Bajura-1, Dadeldhura-1, and Kanchanpur-4. Except for Kathmandu-1, NC would have lost the five seats it has won from the capital city. The leftist alliance would also have won the seat of Sadrul Haq – the independent candidate from Saptari-5.

Only five NC contestants would have won the election. They are: Prakash Man Singh from Kathmandu-1, Bimalendra Nidhi from Dhanusa-3, Mohammad Aftab Alam from Rautahat-2, Ajay K Subedi from Parsa-2, and Ajay K Chaurasia from Parsa-3. Along with Amod Prasad Upadhyaya, Dr Ram Sharam Mahat, Narahari Acharya, Dr Shashank Koirala, and 26 others, Sher Bahadur Deuba would have lost both of his constituencies in the far-west. The existence of the alliances would have changed the entire dynamics of the election process, and fear is that, NC would have been completely obliterated in the Terai.

Now let us look at the performance of the hypothetical Madhesi alliance (MA) which includes the MJF, TMLP, and Sadhbhawana. The MA would have won three NC seats of Dhanusa-5, Rautahat-4, Parsa-5, two Maoist seats of Rautahat-3 and Bara-2, and the independent seat of alleged terrorist Baban Singh from Rautahat-1. On the other hand, the Maoist-UML alliance would have taken three Madhesi alliance seats from constituencies of Morang-4, Saptari-1 and Rupandehi-2, yielding a net gain of 3 seats for the MA and 1 seat for the leftist alliance. The rumor in the Terai that a potential Madhesi alliance would have doubled the current number of FPTP seats at the cost of the Maoists is, well, just a rumour. The numbers do not show it.

It is assumed that the alliance scenario would have affected only the FPTP seats and not the PR seats. The following table summarizes the distribution of current FPTP and PR seats and potential number of seats the Nepali Congress, the left alliance of Maoists and UML, and the Madhesi alliance would have won. If the left alliance and the Madhesi alliance had materialized before the CA election, the Congress would have lost additional 32 seats; 29 to the leftist alliance and 3 to the Madhesi front alliance.

The data show that the UML was the biggest looser in the CA election. By forming an alliance with the Maoists, they would have easily gained an equal share of the majority seats in the CA and the ministerial portfolios in the new government. Together, the leftist alliance would have obtained 353 seats – a clear majority in the house of 601 CA delegates. Thanks to the lack of alliance of the leftist parties and the Madhesi parties, the Nepali Congress survived this CA tsunami. The NC would have been left only with 78 seats coming as a third party behind the Madhesi alliance with 85 seats.

Current Seats in the CA				Seats Under Alliance Scenarios
Major Party	FPTP	PR	Total	FPTP	PR	Total
Maoist	120	100	220
UML	33	70	103
M+UML	153	170	323	183	170	353
Congress	37	73	110	5	73	78
MPRF	30	22	52
TMLP	9	11	20
Sadhbhawana	4	5	9
Madhesi Alliance	43	38	81	47	38	85

Source: Election Commission, Nepal (http://www.election.gov.np/reports/CAResults/reportBody.php)

The data also have implications for the parties on what to do next. Despite lack of time and lack of electoral alliances, the Madhesi parties performed very well. The Madhesi parties now need to form a caucus to come together with a common agenda of Madhes Pradesh. If they remain divided on petty issues and start undermining each other while jockeying for ministerial positions in the proposed Maoist government, they may loose focus on the tasks that are needed to be accomplished for the Madhesi empowerment goals. While seriously working for a common caucus strategy in the CA deliberations, they should also do the ground work towards potential electoral alliance for the next election.

The combined anti-congress vote both in the hills and the Terai was so significant that the NC needs to seriously search its soul and reorganise. With only 5 seats to their real credit, NC has lost all its morality to continue to hang on to the seats of power. The data show that NC has very weak organisational base at the grassroots level. To date, NC has been playing musical chair with the royalists and the UML to stay on the seats of power in Kathmandu. Without them to kick around, the NC needs to fall flat on its own foundation face, turn around, and grow up. Nepal does need NC to carry on the mantle of the middle of the road, non-violent, informed and transparent democratic politics.

The state of UML is in shambles. Compared to Nepali Congress, they do show significant following from the East to the West, in the hills and in Terai. Running right behind the Maoists in most of the constituencies, the voting pattern shows the strength of their organisational structure at the grassroots level. However, UML succumbed to the enthusiasm, better organisational structure, and the intimidation of the Maoist cadres. With this devastating loss, UML is left with no tricks in its political bag. They don’t have any political mission for their existence as an organisation. Except for a few skirmishes here and there against the Maoists, there is no scope and enthusiasm of starting a counter revolution or movement either. Since the people have given the Maoists the mandate of leading the constitution building process, the UML does not have a choice but to form an alliance with the Maoists and help tame them to function as a non-violent and civilized mainstream party. The leaders have to pay a penalty of humiliation for committing the political sin of not heeding to the will of the people but listening to bad advice from the media, the Nepali Congress and the brothers from the South Block.

Yes, the Maoists out-maneuvered and out-muscled other parties to gain the electoral victory in the hills, and the Terai except in areas under the influence of the Madhesi parties. Nepali people gave them the benefit of doubt, because of fear that they would go back to the jungle if humiliated and because of hope that they would bring changes they promised in their electoral manifesto. Maoists deserve credit for bringing the paradigm that it was possible to remove the 240-year old Shah Dynasty, and that it was possible to try to build New Nepal through a representative government of the people, by the people, and for the people. The post poll communiqué by the Maoist leadership and their attempts to continue to seek consensus with other parties in moving forward with the formation of the government, establishment of the republic shows promise. The leaders show humility and a sense of responsibility towards the peace process. While being skeptic and watchful of their behavior, the Maoists deserve all the support they need in the nation rebuilding process. Let us set aside the fear and trust Nepali people’s instinct of hope for a bright future.

(A resident of St. Paul, Minnesota, USA, the author is the President of Empower Nepal Foundation (www.empowernepal.org). He can be contacted at: padamsharma@comcast.net)

(Editor’s Note: Nepalis, wherever they live, as well as friends of Nepal around the globe are requested to contribute their views/opinions/recollections etc. on issues concerning present day Nepal to the Guest Column of Nepalnews. Length of the article should not be more than 1,000 words and may be edited for the purpose of clarity and space. Relevant photos as well as photo of the author may also be sent along with the article. Please send your write-ups to editors@mos.com.np)

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