Can Maoists Consolidate Peace and Sustain Change?
It is important to note that these are extraordinary times for Nepal, especially for implementing the peace process and not for experimenting new or old ideologies. While they have signed up to a peaceful multiparty transition, the Maoist strategy is shaped by a tension between purity and pragmatism. The Maoists seem to have recognised that they have misread the likelihood of determined international opposition and also woke up to the failures that caused the collapse of twentieth-century communist regimes. However, looking at the Maoist ideological direction, they seem to be sticking to the established principles of Maoism.
By Dr Anga R. Timilsina
Cautious Optimism on Peace Process
Nepal has a lot to celebrate. Within a three-year time period, Nepal has gone through a remarkable change. In the words of Dr. Kul Chandra Gautam, the former Assistant General Secretary of UN, “While the peace process is still fragile, already some extraordinary changes have taken place in Nepal’s body politic that are irreversible. It was so heartening and inspiring to see how the people of Nepal surprised the whole world by taking their destiny in their own hands. Let nobody ever again say that the people of Nepal are too poor, too ignorant, and too docile to take charge of their own destiny.”
Nepal’s constituent assembly (CA) election, one of the major outcomes of people’s April uprising of 2006, was a major step forward in the peace process. The Maoists, which had waged so-called “people’s war” in Nepal, have emerged as the major power after the election. The CA is a step towards social transformation as it is a remarkably inclusive body with far representative of Nepal’s ethnic, religious and regional diversity than any past parliament. One third of its members are women showing country’s commitment on gender representation and empowerment. More importantly, Nepal is emerging from Nepal’s societal hierarchy, which is largely based on political structure dominated by elites close to Nepal’s monarchy.
Although many, including Ian Martin, Special Representative of UN General-Secretary, has perceived Nepal’s peace process as the “remarkable do it yourself peace”, significant challenges to Nepal’s peace process still remain. While the peace process has shown momentum and delivered some significant results, old problems persist including weak governance, insecurity, and social and economic deprivation. The logical end to the peace process will not be achieved without writing a new constitution, reforming the security sector, restoring law and order, dealing with land reform and returning seized land, and delivering economic development.
Despite the well-observed ceasefire and reduction in killings of people in the conflict, the state of public security and rule of law is tenuous, particularly in some Terai districts and the rural area of Nepal. The Maoists are crafting their strategy to integrate the majority of their rebels, if not all, to Nepal Army although Nepali Congress, the main opposition party, has made it clear that it opposes any move that integrate cadres of a political party to the national army. A consensus among political parties is also yet to be formed on reviving local government, without which basic social services cannot be delivered.
Maoist-Led Coalition Government: Non-Cohesive and Non-Tenacious?
The outcome of the CA election has reshaped Nepal’s political landscape. The Nepali Congress, the oldest democratic party of Nepal, was forced to sit on the opposition bench despite a constitutional commitment among then seven-political parties to maintain a consensus-based administration. From the 12-point historic agreement between the Maoists and other political parties, the politics of consensus seems to have worked well.
However, the formation of current government is based on the rule of majority and not on the national broad political consensus and thus, the coalition can break anytime, opening up a difficult new transitional phase. The trust among coalition partners is fragile. The most serious problem is that the current Maoist-led coalition government represents a temporary convergence of interests and not a permanent conversion of philosophies, or interests among the coalition partners. The Maoists, the United Marxists Leninist Party, and the Madheshi Janaadhikar Forum (MJF) still retain different visions for Nepal’s future. As Nepal aspires to become a federal democratic republic, expectations are high among diverse groups for greater control of their lives and resources. The issues of geographic and ethnic peculiarities can make coalition partners remain potentially divisive on the issue of deciding the basis of federalism. Reaching a consensus with the UML and the MJF (the Madhesh-based party) about the model of federalism will be a formidable task for the Maoists and this may lead to a breakdown of coalition government.
The death threats and the continued targeted attacks by the Maoists against the media and people who oppose their unruly behavior is a testament of a culture of killings being bred within the organisations of the Maoists. Many leaders of UML have warned that if the Maoists do not stop the unruly activities and do not abide by the past political agreement, they would move away from coalition with the Maoists.
Nepal’s Maoists: Dogmatists or Pragmatists?
Looking at their contradiction in ideology and non-deviation in their militant behavior, the Maoists seem to be experimenting something than actually running the country. When he appeared at the closing of the Olympic Games in Beijing, Prime Minister Prachanda clearly mentioned, “We are making a big experiment -- not only for Nepal, not only for South Asia, but for the people of the world. We communists are more flexible and dynamic. We try to develop our ideology according to new conditions.”
However, it is important to note that these are extraordinary times for Nepal, especially for implementing the peace process and not for experimenting new or old ideologies. While they have signed up to a peaceful multiparty transition, the Maoist strategy is shaped by a tension between purity and pragmatism. The Maoists seem to have recognised that they have misread the likelihood of determined international opposition and also woke up to the failures that caused the collapse of twentieth-century communist regimes. However, looking at the Maoist ideological direction, they seem to be sticking to the established principles of Maoism. As a result, the Young Communist League (YCL), the paramilitary-like sister organisation of the Maoist Party, is actively using military tactics to achieve their party goals. This has strengthened the argument of those who believed that Nepal’s Maoists have changed their strategy and tactics but not yet their goals.
It has hoped that the peace process would force practical and theoretical rethinking to the Maoists; however, the majority of the Maoists cadres and many influential leaders of the Maoists believe that “democratic republic” is only a stepping stone on the way to a true “people’s republic”. Prachanda, the President of the Maoist party argue that they can create a new form of “peaceful revolution” that is true to their communist aims but reflects the reality of Nepalese politics. Thus, the Maoists are caught up between balancing complex equations of domestic and international support and opposition and defining the peace process to their cadres that it is a transitional phase in which they can destroy the “old regime” to establish a people’s republic Nepal.
The Maoists are expected to formulate party’s strategies in the current situation. There is ongoing debate on whether the party should follow Prachanda's strategy of consolidating the federal democratic republic or Kiran’s (one of the Maoist influential leaders) strategy of People’s Republic.
It is important to note that whether by persuasion or force, the Maoists have been successful in dismantling the old political and social structure and in some sense, the economic structure as well. The Maoists seem to be reluctantly accepting the idea of multi-party democracy. Now the question is: whether the Maoist would be able to reconstruct Nepal’s economy and politics.
Nepali Congress: Catch-22 Situation?
The Nepali Congress Party, which should be credited for bringing the Maoists to the mainstream and successfully holding the CA election, chose to remain in opposition. Among many things, the Nepali Congress is unconvinced of the Maoists’ commitment to democratic politics and is particularly opposing the integration of all cantoned Maoists into the Nepal Army. However, the Nepali Congress is in a “catch-22-like” situation. If it does not support the peace process, Nepali Congress risks of being termed by the Maoists and others as the enemy of peace process. On the other hand, as being the country’s oldest democratic party, it has to shun the Maoist dogmatic ideology in favour of democratic principles.
Road Ahead: Trust Maoists but Verify
The Maoists have two choices: ideologically, they can be either dogmatic or pragmatic. However, the burst of people power that has led to a peaceful revolution and brought the Maoists to the power also provides an important lesson. The majority of Nepalese people cannot be fooled by empty promises. Thus, the Maoists have no choices other than working closely with the other political parties including Nepali Congress. Regardless of whether former rebels are in the government or in the opposition, experiences show that many countries revert back to conflict just a few years after successful peace settlement when the Disarmament, Demobilisation and Reintegration (DDR) process is poorly handled and economic reconstruction are not carried out along with the political settlement. Politically, there are three major challenges faced by the Maoists. First, the they should integrate their army into the Nepal Army ensuring Nepal’s Army’s integrity and professionalism is not being threatened. Second, in order to address the issue of residual violence and culture of impunity, the Maoists should immediately disband the YCL and cease all kinds of atrocities.
Given that the Maoists good will is on test, the international community and the Nepalese Diaspora should give the Maoists the benefits of doubt for some time. This may serve as carrot for transforming them into a competitive political party. However, the international community should also be vigilant and serve as watchdog because the democratic peace in Nepal is far from won. The Maoists have not only continued their atrocities, but still seems to be sticking to their old dogmatic Maoist ideology, which can lead the country towards a path of an authoritarian regime.
As a signature phrase of President Ronald Reagan says, “Trust, but Verify”, the Nepali Congress should wait and see how the Maoists will behave in the near future. The Congress party, at this historic moment, needs to play a constructive role if not a role of loyal opposition (the opposition which abides by the principle not by mere party policitiking). It should play an important role in drafting constitution, while putting pressure on the Maoists to transform themselves to a competitive party.
Most importantly, as in other post-conflict societies, peace can not be sustained without addressing the challenges of post-conflict reconstruction and economic development. A new Nepal cannot be envisioned just by talking the talk. In order to sustain peace and build a new Nepal, there needs a careful planning for reconstruction and the execution of that plan. According to some estimates, Nepal may require up to $40 billion over a ten year period for reconstruction and development. Thus, the Nepali Congress, the International Community, the civil society, and the Diaspora communities could contribute significantly to a new start by putting pressure on the Maoist-led government to lead a process for a donors’ summit for the reconstruction and development of Nepal. The experience from Ireland, China and India shows that the Diaspora is away but not apart and can play a greater role than just sending remittance to Nepal. It has the potential to be source of ideas and support for a new start.
(The Author can be reached at: anga34@hotmail.com)
(Editor’s Note: Nepalis, wherever they live, as well as friends of Nepal around the globe are requested to contribute their views/opinions/recollections etc. on issues concerning present day Nepal to the Guest Column of Nepalnews. Length of the article should not be more than 1,000 words and may be edited for the purpose of clarity and space. Relevant photos as well as photo of the author may also be sent along with the article. Please send your write-ups to editors@mos.com.np)
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