The way to go now

By Anand Gurung

Now that the government's axe has finally fallen on General Katawal, it now remains to be seen how skillfully the Unified CPN (Maoist), who were the singular force behind the government's decision, will handle the aftermath. It all depends on the Maoists aptitude for crisis management, the flexibility they can show to appease opposition parties (including those within its own) and of course diplomatic dexterity (like it or not, Indian concerns should be considered) to avoid the dangerous abyss the nation is now looking straight into following the decision that has been taken at the expense of other parties.

Not only have the Maoists vexed parties outside the government including main opposition Nepali Congress by unilaterally deciding to sack General Katawal, but it has distanced its key coalition partners UML including MJF and SP to whom it had promised of resolving the issue on the basis of political basis.

As per its earlier decision to "look for new options" if the Maoist-led government take such a unilateral decision, UML has decided to withdraw its support to Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal's government and its ministers has already tendered their resignation.

UML general secretary Ishwor Pokharel, talking to media persons after the party's Standing Committee meeting which took the decision, accused Maoists of violating the accord of taking decision of national importance with consensus.

"A time has come to forge a new alliance of all parties with a national consensus," Pokharel said, making it clear that UML is looking for an alternative to Maoist-led government by forging alliance with Nepali Congress, MJF including various other political parties.

The meeting of the 23 political parties called by UML yesterday may just as well be to garner enough support (and seats) for a new government possibly to be led by UML itself, and which is said to have India’s nod.

NC, which had earlier held parleys with UML and even pro-monarch parties like RJP to build "democratic alliance" against the government led by the former rebels, has also started discussion with UML and other fringe parties to take a no-confidence motion to the Constituent Assembly against the current government and bring it down through it. Going even further, NC has also asked President Ram Baran Yadav to "right" the wrong decision of the government and defend the [interim] constitution.

To add to the prevailing confusion, President Yadav, who proving himself to be more than just ceremonial figure head or a rubber stamp to government's decision, has said he would decide on the next set of actions only after consultation with various political parties and constitutional experts. Meaning: The government's decision remains pending because as per the provision in the Interim Constitution, the President needs to approve the government's decision to sack the Army chief. The President can even advise the government to reconsider its decision or even withdraw it if he deems it inappropriate, according to some experts.

In a letter to Prime Minister and Unified CPN (Maoist) chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal soon after he was formally informed about the cabinet decision, President Yadav asked the latter to take constitutional provisions into consideration while implementing the decision to sack Katawal.

Although Maoist leadership has claimed that Nepal Army command stands behind the government's decision and has dared opposition political parties to challenge its decision by bringing no-confidence motion against the government it leads, PM Dahal, however, made it all clear how close the country is to disaster when he urged President Yadav after informing him about the government's action against the Army chief over the phone to help him avert the "possible catastrophe" that may happen owing to it.

So, what should the Maoist led government do to avert the "possible catastrophe" the country is likely to face now, the forewarning of which has come in the form of UML and SP pulling out of the government?

But before delving into that, there are few things that need to be clarified. Those who contest that the Maoist led government only invited trouble by seeking clarification from the Army chief and should have avoided touching the army in the first place should understand that the die was already cast for General Katawal when he went ahead with the recruitment drive and reinstated eight army generals against government orders. Though it is altogether different matter whether it was the government (for asking the army to stop recruitment and refusing to extend the tenure of the retired generals) or the Army (for defying both orders) was right for doing what they did, Katawal should not have thought it was the army's moral victory against the government led by its former nemesis when the Supreme Court decided on the army's favor on both counts. As security experts say, Katawal should have gone ahead with the recruitment drive and reinstated the generals in coordination with the Maoist-controlled Defense Ministry no matter how opposed they were with each other on this issue. Not doing this clearly made the army appear flouting, what the Maoists call, "civilian supremacy".

And the army pull out from the national games protesting the last hour entry of Maoist People's Liberation Army into the games was, as what some analysts call it, the last straw, as PM Dahal was then left with no option but to sack Katawal or invite whole amount of new problems for himself from within his party.

It was the classical "Damn if you do, Damn if you don't" scenario for PM Dahal as he was sure that sacking the Army chief will not go down well with his own coalition partners, let alone opposition parties led by fault-finding NC. He also knew that the decision will very likely invite India's wrath against his government as New Delhi had repeatedly made it clear through its representative in Kathmandu that any tampering with the army during these crucial period will be unacceptable to it and very well spell disaster for the current government.

However, PM Dahal could not even avoid taking action against Katawal as that would have sent a wrong signal to the radical section of his party leadership and the restless cadres whose ambitions have grown since the party came into power -- that the Maoists gave in to the pressure of the opposition parties, that PM Dahal let the Army chief get away with his open defiance against the Maoist-led government, and, most seriously of all, he is unable to defend the party's prestige.

And, of course there were larger things at stake, as there was possibility of Maoist choice for the army chief accepting wholesale integration of Maoist combatants into the Nepal Army with plum posts for its deputy commanders – a kind of army integration the Maoists always wanted.

Now that PM Dahal has finally stopped beating about the bush on this issue which had the country held hostage to for the past two weeks and has booted the disobedient General, let’s now revert back to the original question again – how should the Maoist-led government avoid the possible political catastrophe its decision may have invited for the country?

Firstly, there is much possibility that the government may not be able to implement its decision to sack the Army chief since President Yadav, prodded by NC including various other political parties, has already termed the move “unconstitutional” and hence “illegal”. So, as the supreme commander of NA who is vested with the constitutional rights to deploy the army and also take major decision on its behalf, there’s possibility that President Yadav may very well re-instate Katawal as the Army chief. (President Dr Ram Baran Yadav has already written to the army headquarters instructing Rookmangud Katawal to stay in position, despite sack orders from the government)

Secondly, maintaining that Dahal’s government doesn’t have the authority to sack him, Katawal has said he will move the Supreme Court against the decision. As the SC has issued verdict against every controversial government decision in the past and especially when it concerned the army (as past instances have shown where SC has allowed the army to go ahead with its fresh recruitment drive and gave a stay order to the government’s decision to pension off eight retired Brigadier Generals), there’s every possibility that it might do the same in Katawal’s case too and issue a stay order to the government’s decision.

In both cases Katawal might be reinstated as the army chief. But if that is to happen then the Maoists will have to quit the government, like it had said it would if the political parties backed by foreign power centers make it impossible for it to uphold the cabinet decision to sack the Army chief. The resulting scenario might not be good for main task of constitution writing and the fledgling peace process.

However, if the Maoists want then it can also continue in the government by playing a victim against parties ganging up against it - like the Pashupatinath episode had shown in the past where the Maoist led government had to back down from its decision to appoint a Nepali head priest in the place of the Indian.

Here comes the “third option” PM Dahal may like to consider, something which is close to the UML’s proposal of sacking all controversial figures in the present row -- Defense Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa, General Katawal and his second-in-command who has been appointed to the post of acting-CoAS – to end the row.

The only changes in it is that the government will not promote acting CoAS Khadka to the post of army chief and let his tenure expire automatically in two months time, flinging the door open for third-in-command to take over the mantle. The army, despite being as old as the state, has been thoroughly professional in accepting the changes that have taken place since the fall of the royal regime, and surely will accept government’s decision if it is meant for the greater interest of the nation the institution swears by.

This way the Maoists will not only fall in the good books of UML but will also allay concerns that General Khadka will play into the hands of the Maoists since he got the post on the discretion of the party.

At the same time, PM Dahal will also be appearing to balance out the humiliation suffered by NA in this episode by also removing Defense Minister Thapa from his post.

If removal of Thapa appears too much for the party’s leadership to bear then the Maoists can always make it appear like they are rewarding him by “promoting” him to the post of Home Minister since the position remains vacant now after Bam Dev Gautam resigned from the post following UML’s withdrawal from the government.

Then the Maoists can use the empty seat of Defense Minister including other ministerial positions to lure NC into the government. Although Sujata, who is senior NC leader and daughter of party President Girija Prasad Koirala, is said to be keen on taking the Defense Minister portfolio, there is little possibility for that as the recent Central Working Committee of the party had concluded that NC should under no circumstances join the government.

But given the serious horse-trading that takes place in this game of politics, we can’t easily discount all sorts of possibilities. And if NC joins the government, UML might not want to stay out of the government for long– preparing the setting for the formation of a truly national government which will then seriously engage in the task of constitution drafting and take the peace process to its logical conclusion.

But before that happens, the Maoists needs to convince India on its recent set of actions and take it into confidence. Will the Maoists be able to do that? It is something that remains to be seen. andygurung@yahoo.com nepalnews.com May 04 09

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