Govt formation within deadline unlikely
By Thakur Amgai
Even as President Dr Ram Baran Yadav has called political parties representing in the Constituent Assembly to come up with a consensus government by Saturday, the political turn of events show the possibility of formation of the government so soon is very slim.
The humiliation of having to resign from the government still afresh in their minds, Maoist leaders and cadres have started taking vengeance against their NC and UML counterparts. The Maoists, who faced obstructions in almost all major decisions they took while in the government, have already started reciprocating, even before they are officially out of the government. Even though Congress and UML leaders welcomed Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s resignation saying the resignation had opened avenue for a new consensus, the Maoists will not let ‘new consensus’ build up so easily.
Given the experience in the government for the past nine months, Maoists rank and file has been pressurising the party leadership to rather stay in opposition than erode their public image by not being able to implement their policies when in the government. Thus, the party will not easily accept to lead the government again even if offered, let alone joining the government under other parties.
The NC has agreed to form new government under the leadership of UML. However, these two parties do not have enough seats in the parliament to get a majority. They will be able to form the government only if Madheshi Janadhikar Forum and a few fringe parties support them.
Having understood their importance well, the MJF chairman has already put forward conditions to the UML-NC alliance.
The party - considered decisive to determine the shape of future coalition- is expected to take a decision soon as its Chairman Upendra Yadav has cut short his foreign visit and returned home Wednesday.
MJF has covertly expressed interest to lead the future coalition. “It’s a different matter if we get (the post of) Prime Minister, otherwise we don’t need to jeopardize our vote bank by the digressing from our ideological stance,” a close confidant of MJF chairman Yadav quoted the latter as saying.
MJF leaders have accused Congress and UML of not having a strong vision about solutions to problems faced by people in Madhesh. The ‘ideological stance’, MJF chairman is indicating is none other than its alliance with the Maoists which the MJF thinks has a better strategy to win the hearts of people in the Terai than NC and UML.
The NC and UML’s unofficial proposal to make Madhav Kumar Nepal, the new Prime Minister of Nepal is not likely to materialise simply because of inadequate support on their side. Given the circumstances, MJF chairman Upendra Yadav looks like the most probable candidate to lead the government. The strongest reason behind this is the latent support of the powerful players, Yadav has behind him.
In the meantime, speculation is that Indian establishment, which has undeclared but strong influences in the formation and dissolution of governments in Nepal, is also likely to support Yadav as the future Prime Minister.
A coalition will be forged sooner or later. The major players on the stage will come to a denouement as per the instructions of the director. But, as usual, the people of Nepal will once again suffer through the chaos.
Nepali people who had heaved a sigh of relief after the end of the decade long conflict are once again pushed into the whirlpool of tussle of political and foreign forces. nepalnews.com May 06 09
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