| Risks of Delay
Political events do not move in a straight line, say political scientists. Just wait over the night and the timber will start sprouting, says a Nepali proverb. Both appear to be quite true looking at the events and developments that unfolded during the last month in Nepal. The risks of delaying arms management and fixing the date for the Constituent Assembly elections are increasing every week.
Monarchy that looked almost written off till a few weeks ago, has surfaced as a major issue of debate with Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala clearly taking a stand in favour of retaining ceremonial monarchy while the Maoists are threatening to wage an urban rebellion to do away with the monarchy. After the Kamidada meeting of their party's central committee, the Maoists have become more belligerent and their Chairman Prachanda has declared that the Maoist army will not confine themselves into cantonments until the country is declared a Republic. Coincidentally, October is round the corner sending chills up everyone's spine who recall Prachanda repeatedly mentioning the October Revolution. The UN team, requested to oversee the gradual disarmament of the Maoists, is sure to face hurdles in its task. However, optimists are of the view that there is nothing to worry about Prachanda's threat as it is intended to keep the Maoist rank and file calm for the time being. Didn't someone rightly say that there is a lot of difference between what the Maoists say in public and what they actually do? Still, the three days between August 18 and 20 when the government increased the petroleum prices and rolled them back following street violence have indicated a very serious situation - i.e. the people's trust on the present government has eroded substantially and the forces of extreme right and extreme left may find it very easy to take over the power on a slightest pretext. If the Maoists continue their adamant stand refusing to lay arms by exploring various options, the government may be weakened and create a space for the rightist elements to grab power or perhaps the Maoists see this as an opportunity for themselves. And there indeed are further indications of the seven party alliance weakening. The division within the seven parties themselves seems to be widening with each constituent struggling for greater space in the political arena. While the Nepali Congress and its splinter group Nepali Congress Democratic are talking of reuniting (before Dashain, i.e. by the last week of September, according to PM Koirala), other constituents, particularly CPN-UML, seems to be taking it as a threat. Also the Maoists and the staunch monarchists may be taking seriously this likely unity of the major political forces of the country as it may weaken both of them as well. One cannot forget that the strengthening of Maoists and the royalist forces in the past was directly correlated with the schism within the Nepali Congress and its ultimate split. In this background, what is to be seen is how the Maoists and the seven parties manage to narrow their differences and mend the damage that is already caused by the lack of consensus to prepare the interim constitution.
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