| Complications of the Interim Period
The recent days were the days of the Leftists, not just in Nepal but even abroad.
Soon after Sandinista leader Daniel Ortega reassumed the presidentship of Nicaragua a few weeks back, Hugo Chavez took the oath of office as the President of Venezuela for the third term. And while Rafael Correa (US-educated Leftist economist) was sworn in as the President of Ecuador, the Maoists in Nepal joined the interim parliament with a massive strength of 83 members which gives them a chance to control the government if they can convince the CPN-UML to join hands as they too have 83 seats.
If all the Leftists come together, they can command a hefty majority of 182 in the 330-member Nepali interim parliament. Therefore, octogenarian Nepali Congress leader and Prime Minister GP Koirala will have a tough time devising ways to stop such Leftist coalition being formed. However, this gives the Maoists a strong bargaining power to claim powerful seats in the Cabinet. Meanwhile, the Maoists are also reported to be negotiating with CPN-UML for unification of their parties.
The complicacies are compounded by the provisions of the interim constitution which, analysts say, gives the PM dictatorial powers. A few days before promulgating the interim constitution, Koirala himself had expressed dissatisfaction at such provisions. When the members of the House of Representatives (before its dissolution to make way for interim parliament) raised questions about these provisions, Koirala promised that these issues can be discussed and the necessary changes made also by the interim parliament. However, given the complicacies of the political balance, such an amendment seems to be very difficult.
After administering the oath of office to the Chief Justice, Koirala told mediapersons that the new Cabinet may be formed in early February. The delay is due to the incompletion of the verification and storing of Maoist arms.
Meanwhile, a UN team has already started its job to monitor that the Maoist army is confined into cantonments and their arms are locked into containers. Maoist chief Prachanda has already declared dissolution of all the local governments his party had set up in areas controlled or not controlled by it.
Just before entering the interim parliament, the Maoists declared their foreign policy which they said will be based on the principles of Panchasheel. Declaring the policy, Maoist leader CP Gajurel showered praise on India but strongly criticised the US , which has not yet agreed to remove the Maoist party from the list of terrorist organisations. In this announcement, Gajurel also said that his party has severed ties with the Indian Maoists but will remain in the RIM and CCOMPOSA, the international associations of the Maoists. Welcoming the interim constitution and formation of the interim parliament, the US Embassy expressed hope that the Maoists would now stop intimidating people and forced donations.
However, despite the entry of the Maoists into the Parliament, troubles don’t seem to be over for Nepal . Janatantrik Terai Mukti Morcha and factions that broke away from the Maoists are still waging a terrorism drive against the hill people in the Terai. Only a few weeks ago, the western town of Nepalgunj experienced ethnic violence following a strike called by the Sadbhavana Party (Anandidevi), a member of the ruling coalition, protesting lack of sufficient rights to the Terai people. Royalist forces are suspected to be behind the Nepagunj violence, but the report of the Commission set up to probe into the incidence is yet to come.
The conflagration that erupted in eastern Terai after a Maoist cadre opened fire at a peaceful demonstration at Lahan has not subsided yet.
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