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Fear of Political Polarisation
Dashain festivities were over without significant violence. But the country is still mired in the state of terror if the events before and after the Dashain are taken as indications.
The armed groups of Terai declared ceasefire for the period starting from Dashain till Chhath festival but the Jantantrik Madeshi Mukti Morcha (Jwala Singh faction) broke it soon and started violence soon after Dashain. Now other militant groups, old as well as new, have been stepping it up. Rajendra Mahato, leader of Nepal Sadbhavana Party’s splinter group, has announced plan to form a joint front with the armed groups of Terai.
Most important terrorist event of the recent period is the abduction and murder of journalist Birendra Sah by the Maoists. This has not only tarnished the image of government security units but also provided proof to the critics of the peace process for their claim that Maoists are basically terrorists. Accepting the involvement of their party cadre in Sah’s murder, Maoists have promised to initiate appropriate action against the murderers.
How this incident is handled by the state and the Maoist officialdom in the coming days will be a test case for peace and security in the country.
Political deadlock
The political deadlock over the demand of the Maoists to immediately declare Nepal a republic and to adopt fully proportional reprehensive system for the Constituent Assembly elections is now over after the Special Session of Interim Parliament approved two new proposals with a simple majority on November 5.
However, the analysts fear that this event has further complicated the political field for a number of reasons. First, as they say, this might intensify political polarization and second, this may lead to confrontation among the political parties in the days to come. While the need of the ongoing transition phase of the country is greater degree of coordination and consensus among the political parties. Third, the parliamentary resolutions may face difficulty in implementation as they are not legally binding on the government because they are simple resolutions (sankalpa prastabs), not laws. Implementation of the resolutions will need a constitutional amendment which is not possible without the Nepali Congress turning in favour of these resolutions – an unlikely development in view of the fact that the Congress voted against both of the resolutions in the parliament.
Another possible scenario, as feared by the analysts, is that various political outfits may come up with scores of new demands; such as fresh census to determine the actual number of people belonging to different castes, religion and gender. The latest census conducted in 2001 has been taken as too old and most of the geographical locations were not covered during that census due to insurgency.
Finding consensus on this and sorting out details about the fully proportional representative system is likely to take months if not years. If it takes too long, it may not be possible to hold the CA elections within April as was promised by the Prime Minister and some other leaders during the Dashain tea parties.
This supports the view that the Maoists don’t want the constituent assembly elections. All they want is to grab the central power through some other means. Meanwhile, Maoist leader Dr. Baburam Bhattarai has said that if the government does not go ahead with steps to implement the resolutions, his party will start seeking a change in the government leadership, which means changing the Prime Minister. One positive development is that CPN-UML leaders have indicated their unwillingness to continue their alliance with the Maoists.
Another major development of the month was the government’s decision to extend the tenure of the UN mission by one more year to oversee the peace process. Maoists are reported to be against that. According to reports, they are in favour of extending the UN mission’s tenure by only six months. Also India and China are reported to be in favour of sending back the UN mission as early as possible.
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