Clouds Of Uncertainty
Once again, the Nepali people could be deprived of their fundamental right to elect their representatives to govern them. Given the acute political deadlock, the Constituent Assembly (CA) election does not look likely to take place on schedule on November 22. The Maoists' demands can effectively postpone the polls date – whether they are rejected or fulfilled. Their position on fully proportional representation based election system – if it remains unchanged – will put off the polls. If their demand is rejected, the Maoists have already warned to foil the election. Besides any CA election without their participation is certainly going to be meaningless as it was meant to be a political compromise to end the decade-long conflict. And if their demand is accepted, then the Election Commission has already hinted that it may not be able to hold the polls on time since the change in the election system would necessitate change in the constitution, electoral legislations, acts, laws, rules, regulations and guidelines. Moreover, the already printed voting materials might have to be changed.
By SANJAYA DHAKAL
When the Election Commission (EC) agreed to extend the deadline for filing of closed-list of candidates for proportional representation based election by five days to October 5, the Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Bhojraj Pokharel categorically stated that the EC would not be able to make any further change in its poll schedule.
"This change has been done in the national interest and for the sake of political process," said Pokharel after the EC was requested by the government and the seven parties to postpone the candidate nomination date. Likewise, the EC has also postponed the date for filing nomination for candidates for direct election to October 8.
The latest postponement came in the wake of Maoist demand for adoption of fully PR based election system. The Maoist demand has put the government and EC in a quandary as they are racing against time to meet the election date of November 22.
Another election commissioner Dr. Nilkantha Upreti also aired similar views when he said that changing the election system is not as simple and quick as changing a car.
"Any change in election system will necessitate changes from constitution to act and from rules to guidelines," Dr. Nilkantha Upreti said. He hinted that such change would need to be followed by huge exercise including printing of different ballot papers, reviewing voters' education, reviewing training content and changing materials.
After the Maoists advanced 22-point demands – with particular emphasis on two demands of declaring republic from the parliament and adopting fully PR based election system – the CA has landed into yet another uncertainty. Although political leaders are said to have reached a compromise on the first demand by agreeing to approve a commitment resolution on republic through the parliament (for which purpose the Maoists have already petitioned demanding special session of the parliament), differences continue to persist on PR demand.
At present, the interim constitution and CA Member Election Act stipulates that the CA election will be held on the basis of mixed system. Of the total 497 members of the CA, one half (240) will be elected on the basis of PR system and other half (240) will be elected on the basis of direct election. The remaining 17 members will be nominated by the cabinet.
Maoist Mystery
Even though the Maoists were a part of the government and the political team that discussed and finalized these laws, they have made a sudden about-face. "Our earlier agreement was for the election on June. Since the CA could not take place in June, we have revived our demands," said Dr. Baburam Bhattarai, senior Maoist leader.
In what appears to be their unflinching attitude towards compromising on their demands, the joint central committee and central secretariat meeting of the Maoists on Sunday (September 30) decided to stick with their demand for fully PR based election system for November election. It, however, called off national strike on October 4-6 after the Election Commission postponed the nomination deadline by five days.
The Maoists leaders have threatened that they will continue with protest agitation if understanding is not reached within five days. Addressing a mass gathering in Tundikhel on September 30, party spokesperson Krishna Bahadur Mahara accused the prime minister of hobnobbing with reactionary and royalist elements. He also accused that other parties had proposed to postpone election date to mid-April next year.
The Maoist obduracy was also seen during marathon meetings among seven party leaders on Friday and Saturday. After they could not reach agreement on Maoist demand for fully proportional representation based election system, the leaders of seven parties agreed to request the EC to postpone the date for nomination of candidates.
The UML, on the other hand, is projecting the current deadlock as a result of inflexibility by Maoists and NC. Its central committee meeting concluded that the polls must be held on time and asked the Maoists and Nepali Congress to become flexible to end differences. "The Maoists' obstinacy and the NC's inflexible attitude is responsible for the deadlock," said UML general secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal.
Nepal's accusation has come in the wake of reports that PM and president of NC Girija Prasad Koirala refused to go for fully PR system at the current point of time when the EC has already made all preparations for the November 22 election.
Adding to the uncertainty, a faction of the Nepal Sadbhavana Party (NSP) led by Rajendra Mahato has also walked away from the coalition and has vowed to derail the election in Madhes region.
A day after Election Commission (EC) recognized the Nepal Sadbhavana Party (NSP) led by Anandidevi Singh as legitimate on September 28, the dissident faction led by Rajendra Mahato held protest rallies and burned effigies of EC. Mahato who resigned from his position of Minister for Industry, Commerce and Supplies, has announced agitation program aimed at foiling poll schedule.
What Happens Next?
For all practical purposes, it looks highly likely that the election will have to be postponed once again.
But this time, the postponement is likely to attract harsh reactions from international community, which has been supporting the current government to the hilt in the hope of free and fair elections.
Several hints have already been made by Indian and other diplomats that the postponement of the election will raise the credibility and legitimacy question over the currently un-elected government led by PM Koirala.
The international donors who have pledged millions of rupees of assistance for the election will certainly feel disappointed if it does not materialize on November 22.
Worse, the impending disillusionment, disappointment and frustration that will haunt the 23 million people of Nepal if the election is postponed yet again, is going to be the biggest and most serious fall-out.
At a time when over one dozen armed outfits have emerged in Terai and when various organizations are working overtime to create friction on ethnic, religious and regional lines, the postponement of the CA election will create a situation where all hell could break lose.
In a situation like this, the hopes of Nepali people and the international community is to see the CA election take place in free and fair manner on November 22 as scheduled. Any other decision could not only put this government in jeopardy but could also push the country towards highly unstable and divisive course.
