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VOL. 27, NO. 8, October 05, 2007 (Ashwin 18 2064 B.S.)
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Micro Impact Analysis on Economy
Professor Bishwambher Pyakuryal and Rabi Shanker Sainju analyze the impact of conflict in Nepalese micro-economy
By A CORRESPONDENT
Following the signing of Comprehensive Peace Agreement between Maoists and the government, twelve years long internal conflict came to an end in Nepal.
However, Nepal has to face the implications of the conflict for a long time to come.
From destruction of infrastructures like roads, schools, bridges and local level health and political institutions to other financial institutions like banks, twelve years long Maoists conflicts touched almost all the areas. The delay in the project implementations and disruptions in development efforts, too, affected much.
One can judge the damage due to the conflict in the infrastructures but the cost of overall disruptions in other economic areas is going to be long run and severe. One can analyze the costs of damage but the micro-level loss is difficult to assess.
Despite complexities and difficulties in assessing the overall impacts, Professor Bishwambher Pyakuryal and Rabi Shanker Sainju have done a very commendable
job to look into micro-economic implications of the conflict.
Although more than a year has already passed, the government is yet to assess the worth of infrastructures damaged during the twelve years long conflict. According to an estimate, national economy has lost Rs. 66.2 billion. National Planning Commission too has done some estimation but it is yet to completely analyze it. There are several estimates made by individuals and donor agencies but all of them have different ways to assess it.
Before the inception of conflict, Nepal’s annual GDP was growing between 4-5 percent but the GDP went down to negative when the conflict intensified at its peak. During the whole period after the dissolution of elected government and intensification of insurgency, Nepal’s GDP fell to minimum level.
“Except for the negative growth in 2002, Nepal has survived and maintained minimal growth and human development even during the significant political instability of the last decade. The greatest threat was political. This continued street protests and increasing political uncertainties may again deprive the Dalits and indigenous groups in the under-resourced hills of the mid and Far-Western regions of the advantages of public services,” write the author duo.
Along with the loss of human life and property, the conflict has inflicted huge damage in Nepal’s economy. Many books have already been published in the market by various bilateral and multi-lateral donor agencies to I/NGOs but this is the first book, which focuses its attention on micro impact analysis on economy.
“There are significant number of studies available on the macro-level impact of the conflict in Nepal but the study of micro-level impact was inadequate. We feel privileged to fill this gap by assessing the consequences of the on service delivery programs, local economic growth and people’s livelihoods. These issues are analyzed by taking into consideration the inter-linkages between low human development and the conflict. As
the findings of this study may not necessarily represent the nation as a whole, the recommendations should be taken with caution,” write authors duo in the acknowledgement.
Despite signing the peace agreement with major faction of the last twelve years of conflict, Nepalese society is yet to feel relief from all kinds of unstable and chaotic situation. Nepal’s southern plain saw unprecedented rise of violent insurgent groups in one or other forms. Similarly, political instability continues to affect day to day life.
Professor Pyakuryal, one of the renowned economists of Nepal, and Sainju have come up with a very interesting and useful book for the policy makers and other parties interested to know about the impact of conflict in Nepalese economy. This is a very timely and authentic book showing the true cost of conflict in Nepal.
NEPAL’S CONFLICT
A Micro Impact Analysis on Economy
By: Prof. Bishwambher Pyakuryal and Rabi Shanker Sainju
Price: Rs.350.00
Published by: Authors
Contact: Prof. Bishwambher Pyakuryal
Kathmandu, Nepal, Phone 00977-1-441429, 5521720
Pages: 120
