Knocking At The Door
Hundreds of foreign election observers have arrived from various parts of the world and the election fever has gripped the whole nation. The much awaited election for Constituent Assembly is a week away. Because of prolonged political instability and inexplicable political conflict, there still prevails distrust and mistrust among the people about the election. This psychology of uncertainty will haunt the minds of the people till the date of election. Given the present scenario, the election appears right in hand. The twice-postponed poll is now almost a reality
By KESHAB POUDEL
"The period from today (March 31) will be extremely sensitive. A small incident could lead to serious consequences. Therefore, I request you all not to make any offensive statement," said prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala at the Election Commission.
"Don't talk any negative thing about election. There will be election for CA on April 10," said CPN-UML general secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal. "Don't go after rumors."
"There is no question of disrupting the CA polls. I don't say that some of our friends have not committed mistakes. Maybe, we still have hangover of yesterday's war. We will try our best not to repeat the mistakes," said CPN-Maoist leader Prachanda.
At a time when prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala, CPN-UML leader Madhav Kumar Nepal and Maoist leader Prachanda were summoned to the Election Commission (EC), which asked them to rein their cadres, CPN-Maoist cadres attacked Nepali Congress workers and candidate of constituency no 1 of Tanahun district Govinda Raj Joshi.
Along with former home minister and Congress central committee member Joshi, some two dozen NC workers were injured when Maoists attacked them. Similarly, Maoist cadres and CPN-UML cadres attacked the party office and followers of Nepali Congress in Dadeldhura district, the constituency of Nepali Congress leader and former prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba.
"We must hold the election at any cost as almost all preparations have already been completed on our part. Only thing we now need is to set up the polling booths which will begin from Thursday," Chief Elections Commissioner Bhoj Raj Pokharel told Spotlight. "After my meeting with three top leaders, I am confident the situation will improve a lot."
Although Maoist leader Prachanda, who has already abandoned his nationwide election campaign because of personal safety, repeatedly urged his party cadres not to indulge in violence, the cadres of Young Communist League have been launching the crusade against the leaders of other parties.
Along with Congress leaders, CPN-UML leader K.P. Sharma Oli, Speaker of interim parliament Subas Chandra Nembang, Rastriya Janashakti Party leader Surya Bahadur Thapa and RPP leader Pashupati Sumsher Rana, all of them faced atrocities from YCL.
"Maoists are not serious about election. YCL cadres are forcing my supporters and voters not to go to poll issuing threats of physical actions," said former prime minister Surya Bahadur Thapa. "Whatever they do, they cannot postpone election now."
Despite intensification of violent clashes between the workers of major political parties and Maoist sister organization, YCL, the statement of leaders of three major political parties show that the election is now inevitable.
"Prime minister Koirala told us that the all of Nepal's friends from neighborhood and outside want to see the election. There will be election at any cost," said one of the close colleagues of prime minister Koirala who met him on Tuesday morning in Baluwatar.
The situation has changed after the meeting between Maoist leader Prachanda, CPN-UML leader Nepal and Civil Society members in Baluwatar on Monday. "Election is the issue of prestige for all of us," said Koirala. "Maoists will come to their term and size."
Election Is Reality
Others, too, argue that the postponement of election at this juncture is unthinkable. At a time when international election observers from various parts of the world including Cater Center of USA, European Union, Japan and other international organizations have already arrived in the country and local human rights organizations have mobilized the local observers, the postponement is improbable.
According to the European Union Election Mission, they will have 120 observers from 22 different countries including Norway and Switzerland. This mission is made up of a core team of 10 election experts. Providing all necessary logistic support, western democracies and USA have shown that they want to see the election for CA in Nepal at any cost.
The United Nations Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) has been monitoring the election process. The UNMIN chief Ian Martin has been traveling throughout Nepal to look at the election preparations.
When all preparations are at the final stage, there are no reasonable apprehensions to about the postponement of the election. Internal cause cannot postpone the election. If it is postponed, it will be because of external factor - particularly the distrust among Nepal's neighbors.
As Nepal's two neighbors- who are marching ahead with high economic growth- too are pursuing the policy of accommodation and adjustment for peace and stability in the region, it is not in their interest to push Nepal into a failed state. Nepal has a space for peace and stability. This is the space where the forthcoming election has greater importance.
Looking at the recent statement of India's security advisor M.K. Narayanan, India has a clear stand regarding the stability in Nepal as he pointed out his preference of a political party, which can guarantee the political stability in Nepal. For India, Nepal Congress is first choice, he said..
At a time when communist parties still rely on radical political agenda, Nepali Congress is a centrist party which can accommodate all different forces to guarantee the stability in Nepal.
"Making of the constitution could be easy or difficult depending on helping or hostile role of Nepal's immediate democratic neighbor. It will be very unfortunate and unpleasant situation in the history of Nepal in case a biggest democratic country of the world in Nepal's neighborhood plays a destructive and obstructive role. There is no other country which has that kind of leverage in Nepal's political order," said a political analyst.
Uncertainty Over Election
As the election process is on the final stage, internal forces do not have the strength to postpone it. Although external force has the capability to postpone the election, it has its own limitation. "At least, one can see there is wisdom in Nepal's neighbors that they would not transgress their tolerable limit."
If the situation is such, why people have still confusion over the election process? One of the reasons is the prolonged political instability, which has created the fear and uncertainty in the minds of the people.
Since October 2002 when the date for election for the House of Representatives was postponed, country has seen postponement of election several times. Even the election for CA were postponed three times in the last two years.
"Because of inexplicable conflicts, there still exist distrust and mistrust. This psychology will haunt the minds of people till the date of elections," said the analyst.
"So far as indicators show, one can reasonably hope that election will be held even in a situation of sporadic violence," said the analyst. "Compared with many states in third world, situation of Nepal is better. It is not like in Afghanistan, Sudan and East Timor. We still have organized political parties playing a lead role since the political change of 1951 despite reversals in political experiments."
According to the analyst, one may dislike particular politician in the leadership and their style of functioning but one cannot rule out their country wide access with the people through broad based organizations. That is a positive side of the political situation in Nepal despite failing of the leadership.
In fact, leadership gets energized through its involvement in periodical elections, which make them responsive to the popular opinion. The important aspect of the present election is that political parties have revived their contacts with the people at the grass root.
In realistic assessment, candidates have the first and foremost priority to get elected and voters' prime motivation is to see his/her interests met. In a way, it is a realist way of fulfilling each others' interest.
"Neither this election nor coming elections are going to fulfill all the needs and aspirations of the people. Nepal has been dragged into a politics of instability in which several constitutional experiments have already failed. And few more may meet the same fate. Knowing this, many people in politics and particularly candidates don't bother about the forms and contents of constitution. What they consider more important is the way to reach to the power preferably on popular voting and voters in Nepal have become wiser by their past experiences and therefore they don't look about high sounding ideals but select from best possible choices," said the analyst.
For New Political Order
The campaigns are in full swing. Despite violence and threat, all the candidates are concentrating their efforts to woo voters. Almost all candidates in all the parts of the country are now in the doors of voters with package of promises.
Whether former prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba or Maoist leader Prachanda, CPN-UML general secretary Madhav Kumar Nepal, all of them are knocking the doors of sovereign voters.
Now CA has become a fait accompli as the country has to undergo the pain and turmoil of bringing out a new political order through the Constituent Assembly. It will depend on the tolerance and foresightedness of our political leaders.
The Constituent Assembly will take a fresh look and it could dismantle all the imperfect tasks carried out by previously nominated interim parliament. Whatever they say, the elected parliament can change the priority and leadership.
If everything goes normally, there will be election in the country after the lapse of nine years. It will be the test of wisdom of the people. The candidates are under the discipline of political parties but the common people while exercising their franchise are, in fact, exercising their sovereign rights to choose their servants for given period.
Country will be under the threat of disintegration and survival even after the election for CA but the sovereign people have no other alternative other than to face the consequences of the election.
