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VOL. 27, NO. 38, June 06 , 2008 (Jestha 24 2065 B.S.) |
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A New Phase Of Instability
Even a week after the declaration of Nepal as a republic and creation of the post of president through the fourth amendment of interim constitution, the political deadlock continues as political parties are yet to reach consensus on who will lead the new government and who will be the new president. If the current political trend is any indication, it shows that another round of major political conflict is looming. As Neal has been passing through phase-wise political crises for long, the coming crisis, which was triggered when members of Constituent Assembly abolished the institution of monarchy without any visible alternative in their hand, could be more intense, more violent and more chaotic. In absence of stabilizing institutions, the country may have to face any number of mid-night miracles evolving through unseen maneuvering
By KESHAB POUDEL
"We will have no option but to launch a struggle, if the crisis (on government formation) is not resolved," thundered Maoist chairman Prachanda, addressing a mass meeting in Gorkha. "Only the Maoists have the right to claim the posts of both prime minister and president on moral and political grounds."
"If parliamentary parties continue their foolishness, Nepal will become People's Republic," threatened Prachanda. "If Nepali Congress and CPN-UML do not honor the mandate of the people and allow us to form the government, we will openly launch an October Revolution as Lenin did in Russia in 1917."
"The Maoists will face the situation like that of monarchy if they try to impose authoritarian rule in the country," said vice president of NC and Minister for Peace and Reconstruction Ram Chandra Poudel. "How can they claim to form the government when they don't have even simple majority of seats."
"If Maoists have the absolute majority, why don’t they go ahead and form the government on their own. They were not given mandate to rule absolutely," said CPN-UML general secretary Jhalnath Khanal. "The Maoists should not impose their agenda and should not claim all the key posts."
A week has already passed since the abolition of monarchy through the fourth amendment of interim constitution creating the position of president, but the political parties are yet to agree on power sharing. Everybody wants power and in a current situation of vacuum of power, the extremes from all the sides are trying to press their demands.
As series of meetings of country's major political parties have already been held to sort out the political crisis, they have shown their rigid stances on power sharing as differences continue to persist indicating more turbulent political situation ahead.
Political Settlement
This is not for the first time when leaders of political parties exchanged such harsh words and demonstrated rigid stands but, in the end, they have always have had accommodation. Like all the political settlements in the past, political leaders, people expect, will come out with an agreement prepared in invisible place just before the second meeting of CA, which is scheduled for June 5.
As the working committee of seven party alliance has already decided to authorize three top leaders to find amicable solution of the present political crisis, another mid-night drama may settle the question of government formation.
"We agreed to create the post of president only to implement the agenda of republic. But it does not mean that we agreed to give the posts of president to any particular political party," said Prachanda. "We wanted to maintain the existing constitutional provision in which prime minister can also act as head of the state until a new constitution comes into effect. But we had to agree on the presidential posts after the NC and UML leaders hinted at giving continuity to monarchy if we did not agree to their terms. That is why the first CA meet was delayed by 11 hours."
One source close to the meeting disclosed that many times even senior most leaders of political parties remain ignorant about the major agreement. For instance, the first meeting of CA was delayed by 11 hours because of vehement opposition within the Maoist. "Two senior Maoist leaders Mohan Baidya Kiran and Ram Bahadur Thapa Badal raised objections at the provision to creation of ceremonial president. After Maoist chairman Prachanda revealed that this was a part of secret agreement made during the signing of 12 points agreement in New Delhi in November 2005, the two leaders let the proposal move ahead, the source said.
The motion tabled at the first CA meeting by home minister Krishna Prasad Sitaula, who was rejected in the election with no constitutional right to vote in the motion, abolished the monarchy through the fourth amendment and created the figurehead president like that of constitutional monarch of previous constitution.
No Sight for Peace
Although the post of president has been created and monarchy abolished, the situation in southern terai is getting worse day by day as about half a dozen of innocent people have already been killed in a span of a week. Public life in Birgunj city was paralyzed as businessmen, civil servants and commoners took to the streets after a spate of killings and attacks on businessmen. Similarly, the life in Janakpur was paralyzed following killing of an employee of Janakpur Cigarette factory on Monday (June 2).
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CA members: Manifold challenges |
As political parties are fighting over power sharing in capital, the violent groups are intensifying their activities in southern plain even as many other organizations are threatening to launch stir.
The organizations like Nepal Federation of Indigenous Nationalities, Tharu Welfare Assembly, Backward Group of Terai have already threatened to organize nation wide stir.
"We strongly object to the way the 26 seats are being divided among the parties. This shows that the 601 member CA will not be able to protect our rights. We must be prepared for a fresh agitation to get our rights guaranteed in the new constitution," said Pasang Sherpa, president of Nepal Federation of Indigenous Nationalities. "Girija Prasad Koirala, Jhala Nath Khanal and Prachanda should not act like king now."
Thanks to the short supply of fuel, the normal life is already paralyzed and transport entrepreneurs and petroleum dealers have already called the indefinite strike from June 15.
Common people's hope to see the return of peace after removal of monarchy and establishment of presidential system has already been shattered as the political vacuum created by the fourth amendment of constitution is difficult to fill. Even leaders of political parties who claimed in the past that the country will turn into heaven after the abolition of monarchy are not ruling out the possibility of chaos.
"Making Nepal a republic is not a panacea. One has to be prepared to see more chaotic situation before stabilization returns," said political scientist Dr. Lok Raj Baral. Baral was one of senior political scientists who held the view in the past that removal of monarchy will turn the country into a heaven.
As there is no possibility of any agreement among the leaders of political parties with heterogeneous interests, there is always that need for the intervention to press them. The consensus and political agreement coming through unseen maneuvering cannot bring about the long lasting solution and the country's political system will continue to be rocked by one or the other kind of internal bickering.
Question Of Stability
After the fourth amendment, the position of president was created and he or she has been given the ceremonial and constitutional role but it is still uncertain when the process of selection of president will begin. "Girijababu cannot just resign now as he is acting both as a head of the state and head of the government," said NC leader Bimlendra Nidhi. "This is the reason why we are requesting Maoists to come up with consensus political program soon."
In the past, the monarchy guaranteed the stability as an institution of continuity but Nepal has lost that institution after May 28. Though it was a political institution, the monarch itself essentially was a non-partisan person between political players of divergent outlooks and programs.
Some political parties like Madhesi Janadhikar Forum have already floated the proposal of choosing a non-political and neutral individual for president. "We must agree on a neutral person for president," said Upendra Yadav, leader of MJF. Given the present situation of political polarizations, searching for a neutral person is not that easy.
For monarchy, it had the advantage of ultimate neutrality but such thing may not be possible with other individuals. "From extreme right to the extreme left, in the process of democratic evolution since 1951, monarchy went through a series of roles. Ultimately, after the change of 1990, it had reconciled to its mystic role of a limited monarchy. After the Royal Palace massacre in June 1, 2001 and an unusual situation, King Gyanendra underwent an unpredictable situation and missed his moorings as a constitutional monarch with a nominal role," said a political analyst.
Silent majority of people were neither jubilant nor happy when CA declared Nepal a republic. One did not see the spontaneous outburst of emotions.
Having no idea about the alternatives among the ruling parties even after they voted out the constitutional monarchy, the political parties are now desperately groping for a new course.
Maoist led Government
Although there are strong pressures within the rank and file of Nepali Congress and CPN-UML, Maoist will be invited by prime minister Girija Prasad Koirala to form the government. If things go as plan, Prachdna will head five party coalition government next week.
According to a source close to prime minister Koirala told this subscribe, Nepali can see another miracle in the form of Maoist government. ”As Maoist has already performed the role in abolishing monarchy, making Nepal republic, their role in the government will be to restructuring Nepal Army and rewriting Nepal India 1950 treaty,” said the source. “Next week, the three party will sign the agreement for power sharing. The present differences will be settled as in the past.”
King's Role
Whatever he did in the past, the king was fair enough in his role to accept the change, which was legitimized through the recent elections. He was prepared to face any kind of threat, coercion or challenges from any side.
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CA: Playing a limited role |
In a meeting with Home Minister Krishna Prasad Sitaula, a severe critic of monarchy, former king Gyanendra expressed his acceptance of the new situation. Former king Gyanendra reportedly told Sitaula that he will leave the Naryanhiti palace before the June 12 deadline. "I talked to him as am talking with you and he talked to me in the same way. I found that the king had changed a lot," Sitaula told reporters after meeting with former king Gyanendra.
Sitaula went to the palace as an envoy of the prime minister after the two government panels advised the government to hold political-kevel talks with the ex-monarch. Ex-King Gyanendra himself came to greet the minister and other officials.
Even before the abolition of monarchy, former king Gyanendra was clear in his mind that he would not accept any role compromising the national sovereignty and national integrity. "If I was given a choice, I would be happy to live as a commoner of independent and sovereign country," king Gyanendra reportedly told his relatives. As his earlier commitments, former king Gyanendra accepted the verdict of people though the CA, whose whole process of dethroning him had flouted internationally accepted legal and constitution practice.
Whatever humbleness former king Gyanendra is showing by accepting the verdict of people, the coming days will not be rosy for him. The media reporting and reactions of so called civil society members and political leaders indicate that they will continue their tirade against him.
"King Gyanendra failed to apprehend the regional dimension of conflict and instability in which Nepal had to take care of undergoing regional tensions and conflicts. After the abolition of monarchy, the never ending debate is going on about the constitutional propriety and efficacy. But the most pertinent question in his time is regarding the removal of a time tested older institution of stability. Now political players of extreme outlooks and demands will be confronting each other in the game of political power in which the world at large and especially Nepal's next door neighbors cannot remain assured of the situation," said the political analyst.
"Each will have to do its best to keep away the other from becoming a dominant and dictating power in the affairs of Nepal. That way other players may also be forced to have their role in the country. Now the most dangerous scenario of irreconcilable conflict is looming large over the political horizon of Nepal, which will affect beyond its boundary," said the analyst.
