The Day of Reckoning
Although the election campaigning is in full swing and the candidates of different political parties are knocking the doors of voters, there are still some elements of uncertainty about the election for Constituent Assembly, which has been scheduled for April 10. As election campaigning is reaching the households, large numbers of candidates have been receiving threats in terai as well as in hill from armed groups and Maoists, respectively. Thus, the possibility for the postponement of the election has not completely vanished yet. At a time when all major internal and external players, particularly, Nepal's friendly democratic countries from the west, United Nations and India, Nepal's close neighbor and world's largest democracy as well as its northern neighbor China, have come out openly in favor of elections, the election, at least in surface, seems to be a reality
By KESHAB POUDEL
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Political workers: Building Excitement |
For octogenarian prme minister Girija Prasad Koirala, Saturday (March 15) was a hectic day. From early in the morning till early evening, prime minister Koirala held discussions with Ian Martin, chief of UN Mission to Nepal, Indian Ambassador, French Ambassador, a gathering of film actors and finally the chief election commissioner Bhojraj Pokharel.
In all these meetings, prime minister Koirala's main agenda was to make the election successful. Whether one likes it or not, the country is now heading towards the election process.
Just a day after his meeting with foreign diplomats and high level election officials, who also raised the question of deteriorating law and order situation including threat to candidates and voters, Maoist cadres opened fire at the mass meeting organized by Bal Krishna Dahal, Koirala's personal secretary and candidate of Nepali Congress from Okhaldhunga district constituency.
Amid constant concerns expressed by Nepal's friendly countries and commitments expressed by prime minister Koirala and seven party alliance, it shows that the election for CA is now going to be the reality.
But, no one can predict what is cooking beneath the surface, which can make a lot of difference. Political pundits argue that since the momentum is going in such a fast mode, it is very difficult to reverse it back as stakes for all the internal and external players are quite high.
"Please go to your constituencies to campaign. Don't have doubt about the election. Since all the forces are backing me, I will hold the election at any cost," said Koirala to his party's central committee member Sunil Kumar Bhandari and Laxman Ghimire who went to prime minister's residence on Saturday. "Girijababu was determined to hold the election. I saw confidence in his face."
Along with Koirala, other leaders of seven party alliance, too, have been speaking in similar tones. "If we are unable to hold the election on April 10, we will lose all our legitimacy to govern the country," thundered CPN-UML leader Madhav Kumar Nepal speaking to journalists at TU Teaching Hospital where he went to meet his party candidate Dev Shanker Poudel who was attacked and injured by Maoist cadres in Ramechhap district.
Despite some threat and physical attacks against party candidates, the ground situation has changed suddenly all over the country.
Maoist leader Prachanda has already addressed a number of meetings in his two constituencies in Rolpa - 2 and Kathmandu-10. Similarly, CPN-UML leader Madhav Kumar Nepal recently visited his two constituencies in Kathmandu-2 and Rautahat.
Nepali Congress leader and former prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba is now in his home town Dadeldhura and Kanchanpur to address the mass meeting and meet the people.
Despite the hurdles created by local leaders, Sujata Koirala, daughter of prime minister Koirala, is launching campaign in her constituency in Sunsari. Former home minister and Nepali Congress leader Govinda Raj Joshi, despite the threat of Maoists, has been visiting his constituency in Tanahun.
Rastriya Janashakti Party leader Surya Bahadur Thapa and Rastriya Prajatantra party leader Pashupati Sumsher Rana, who were threatened by Maoists, are now in their home constituencies in Dhankuta and Sindhupalchowk districts, respectively. "Whatever cost I have to pay, I will stay in my home constituency to encourage my voters to take part in the election," said Thapa.
International Players
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District election office in kathmandu: Poll atmosphere |
Similar assurances have been coming from Nepal's friends from western countries and two neighbors. In his discussion with prime minister, Indian ambassador to Nepal Shiv Shanker Mukherjee reportedly assured the PM that India will provide all out support to hold the election.
In his recent visit to Nepal, Chinese Assistant Minister of Foreign Affairs He Yafei had said that China supports Nepal's peace process and said he was happy to see the process is nearing completion.
Chinese officials have already made it clear that they want to see Nepal at peace and prosperous. "Nepal needs to keep in mind our security interest and sensitivity in Tibet," said a Chinese official. "Nepal can make relations with any country and have any system but not at the cost of China's security."
Not only Nepal's two neighbors, Nepal's friends from west have been expressing their strong support to make the CA election possible.
Although it is yet to be publicly announced, it is reported that the United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki Moon is coming to Nepal for a short trip to back Nepal's peace process.
The backing of international players is understandable. Since the last couple of years, all international players had been advocating election here.
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UML flag |
Like most elections, the CA still has elements of uncertainty. In the last five decades, Nepal has experimented with a number of constitution but they all failed to bring stability in the country. What happens after CA, therefore, is still unclear.
Initiated under India-mediated tripartite agreement between then King, Rana and Nepali Congress in New Delhi in 1951, the Constituent Assembly emerged as a consensus agreement. It again emerged as consensus point for the second time when seven party and Maoists inked a deal once again in New Delhi in November 2005.
"All of us must work to hold free, fair election for CA, which will draft the new constitution," said prime minister Koirala. "If we hold the election in free and fair manner, all of us will be winners."
Although Koirala made similar commitments last year, he postponed the election at the last minute. If Maoists create the situation like in the past, prime minister might repeat his last action. As all the major players have placed all their stakes in the election, it has become the question of prestige, legitimacy and moral obligation for all.
"Whether one likes it not, election is going to be held as it is required for major political parties to prove their legitimacy. If the election cannot be held, it will be failure of all parties," said a political analyst. "In case election is postponed this time, a large following of these parties and their sympathizers would lose their face while their leaders would lose their moral authority to rule the country. The parties will also lose their legitimacy."
"Nepal's neighbor and largest democratic country will also lose its face and legitimacy. In case the election is postponed again, all the forces of political stability will be losers except the anarchists and miscreants," the analyst said.
Security situation
From Sujata Koirala in eastern Sunsari constituency and Kamala Dhungel, NC candidate from Mahottari constituency no 1 in terai to NC leader Arjun Narsingh KC's constituency in Nuwakot 1 and CPN-UML leaders' constituencies in hill, one of the challenges all these candidates have been facing is that of law and order situation.
"Without strong security apparatus, both voters and candidates cannot be assured of free and fair election. Security situation in terai is very weak and much so for women candidates and voters," said Kamala Dhungel.
"Within a week, our supporters have received threats and were obstructed at three different places. They don't allow candidates to reach to the voters. We are campaigning at gun point and armed threats and the people in rural areas are not in a position to come out freely from their houses. I am surprised to see enthusiasm in women voters who are prepared to defy such threats. I am surprised to find that security officials still feel that strong directives for providing security are not yet given from the top. Threats, abductions and killings are reported almost on daily basis," said Dhungel who has been facing threats from armed groups of terai.
CPN-UML candidate Dev Shanker Poudel is in hospital for treatment following physical assault by Maoists in Ramechhap. Nepali Congress candidate Bal Krishna Dahal had a close shave after being attacked by Maoists in Okhaldhunga on March 16.
Despite threat to the candidates, the campaigns are in full swing and enthusiastic voters are taking part in the election process with gusto.
Issue of Political Structure
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Maoist cadres:On the move |
After publication of election manifestoes by all the major political parties, basic characteristics of future political system has been laid down though it will not be binding for elected members of Constituent Assembly. Parties have presented a blue print before the people. All have opened their card now.
Country's major political parties, particularly those in the seven party alliance, have proposed similar structures with president and prime minister. CPN-UML and CPN-Maoist have forwarded different system of government but both of them want elected executive.
They have also proposed the legislative bodies and structures for federal government. Till now, Rastriya Prajatantra Party Nepal is the only party, which pursues the constitutional monarchy and parliamentary democracy. At a time when all political parties are going from one extreme to another, there is no party which clear-cut ideas on centrist ideology.
Rumors of Postponement
But, there are powerful groups, which still believe that the election will be postponed at the last minute on the ground of security and Maoists will create a situation favorable to that. These kinds of rumors will be there till the last minute. So far as the violence and insecurity are concerned, that has been there for long.
Enthusiastic people particularly in the hills see election as a festival. Elections are not new for Nepalis. The first elections were held for local government in 1949.
"Federalism, inclusiveness should be tested by the popular opinion of the country through the election. One of the weaknesses of the society is skepticism. All these preparations are done and all political parties have announced their manifestoes with responsibility. To hold the election is not as difficult as it will be to manage the Pandora's Box that will be opened," said the analyst.
Whatsoever has come out yet as an outline of the future model of constitution may have to undergo practical test. All high sounding jargons of federalism, inclusiveness, gender etc may have to be reoriented under a pragmatic deal between newly emerged heterogeneous groups and interestsI
