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VOL. 28, NO. 09, Nov 14 , 2008 (Kartik 29 2065 B.S.) |
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POWER SHORTAGE
Darkness Rules
Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) is close to announce load shedding hour for 14 hours a day - two hours more than a year ago. However, the discussion and debate is now on selling the dream of making Nepalese prosperous by exporting the hydropower to Nepal's neighbor. Instead of looking at the domestic demand, priority is given to export-oriented hydro-power projects. As the government has already handed over some of the best and cheapest projects to foreign companies, there are only a few projects left to end the load shedding any time soon. The situation now is such that the citizens of a country with rich hydropower potential are forced to leave without power half their life. Whatever the leaders say about Nepal's hydro power export, irony is that Nepal is importing power from India to maintain the supply. With no major project currently under construction to add extra power to Nepal's grid, load shedding is going to be a part of life for urban Nepalese for many years to come
By KESHAB POUDEL
"We will construct the hydro power projects of about 10,000 MW to export within ten years to India. Exploitation of hydro power is one of the ways to make Nepalese prosperous. This resource must be utilized to make all Nepalese rich," thundered prime minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal inaugurating Okhaldhunga festival, 400 east of capital.
"I have already directed concerned ministries to give green signal to all investors who want to invest in the projects that are export oriented."
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Hydro resources: Being wasted |
When Prime Minister Dahal was addressing the crowd calling for more investment on hydropower projects, which aim at exporting (November 6), officials at Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) were planning to publish harsh load shedding schedule, which will be implemented from last week of November.
"As the water recedes in the rivers, our power projects are now producing just half of their capacity. Since our projects are unable to meet the demands of all our customers, there will be 14 hours power cut from last week of November," said Sher Singh Bhat, director of NEA's System Operation.
Although prime minister Dahal's party claims itself as a party of the proletariat, his mind seems to have been influenced by the outmoded mantra of selling power and making money. Even at the cost of the internal crisis, prime minister Dahal's thrust is to export the power. Thanks to the new harsh schedule, many industries have already declared that they will shut down factories if the government does not supply adequate power. Due to power cuts, many workers have already been laid off.
Shortage of Power
"As the water is gradually receding in the rivers and demands of power (especially at peaking period) is rising, we don't have any option other than to cut the power supply. We will publish the rescheduled load shedding," said Sher Singh Bhat. "Thanks to destruction of high-tension transmission line in eastern region due to flood, we are not in a position to import the electricity from India. As the water collection in Kulekhani reservoir is low due to short of rainfall compared to previous years, we are not in a position to produce the power as per the demand," said Bhat.
Experts argue that the present load shedding characteristics indicate that our shortage is only for a very short period. So we require additional generation capacity only to meet extreme peak demand. What
Nepal requires now is power stations exclusively for meeting peak energy demand.
Although Nepal's present demand is for peaking power, Nepal is going ahead to implement projects suitable for generation of base load energy to resolve the present power shortage crisis. Even if NEA suppresses the demand by adding few MW in central grid, after few years the power deficit level will reach up. Arun III and Upper Karnali, which are already handed over to the foreign developers, are the best project to meet the peaking demand.
The country has identified short term hydropower development priorities that have not addressed our real requirements. Nepal presently needs additional capacity to meet extreme peak energy demand.
Experts argue that the schemes for generation of peaking energy are relatively inexpensive. However, the attention is now given to rely on hydropower for base load energy generation which costs high to meet short term energy demand. Nepal could have either propose diesel station or peaking hydropower. As the prices of diesel have gone up, hydro power could be best option.
The situation of Nepal is very contradictory. In a country reeling in load shedding, the politicians have been selling a dream by promoting the idea to make Nepalese prosperous by constructing the export oriented projects, and there is virtually no project which are under the construction for domestic use.
Completion of Middle Marsyangdi
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Transmission line: Shortage of infrastructure |
Although Middle Marsyangdi will add about 70 MW power to national grid from next week, the power is not enough to meet the growing demand of the consumer. The next five years will be darker. As there is no new major project currently under constructions, the coming days for Nepal is going to be much more difficult. " Nepal's own problems are not the shortage of power but a shortage of vision and commitments. All the major political parties concur about the power export not a power for the local generation. For full two years, they have done nothing but talk and talk," said an energy expert.
The load shedding has not come out of blue as has a long history behind it. Soon after the scrapping of Arun III project in 1995, the country's overall power sector policy was virtually dysfunctional. By implementing the projects like Kali Gandaki A, Klimt, Bhote Kosi, Puwa and Chillime, the power crisis was somehow managed.
As there was no big size project in the pipe line, the load shedding became to reality. Nepal is among the few countries in Asia which started to generate hydro power a century ago but its own rate of growth is too slow. In the last one hundred years, it added just 5 MW a year in its grid.
"Kam Kuro EKa Tira Kumlo Boki Thimi Tira. That is what exactly what our previous governments did. Instead of working on Nepal's own power shortages, it wasted two precious years approaching export oriented projects like Upper Karnali and Arun III. The present government is behaving no differently- chanting its new found Mantra of 10000 MW in ten years. We need to be genuinely serious of our power crisis- at a time when the global financial crisis is going to hit hard as well," said S.B. Pun former managing director of Nepal Electricity Authority.
NEA's Capacity
Although NEA's total power generation capacity is 619 MW, it will generate about 400 MW due to reduced water level during winter. The system loss estimated to be about 25 percent means the actual power supply is 300 MW or half of its total generation. As NEA's entire power supply is based on the run-of- the-river type projects, they cannot produce the firm energy all the time. Except Kulekhani reservoir project, other rivers' energy production fluctuates according to the availability of water.
Power import from India is the only option for the country. If the rehabilitation and reconstruction of high-tension line in Kosi completes on time, Nepal may import about 110 MW of power.
According to Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA), power and energy demand grew by 11.31 percent and 10.76 percent respectively in the review period. The system demand of 721.73 MW recorded on December 31, 2007, happened to be the peak power demand observed in Fiscal Year 2007/08. Likewise, energy demand over the year totalled 3490. 12 GWH. As this amount of energy was not available with the system, the deficit amounting to 309 GWh, had to be shedded to keep the electricity service running
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Kathmandu Valley: Growing demand for energy |
The number of customers availing electricity service of NEA reached 1524610 which is an increase of 9.07 percent over that of previous year. Of the total customers, 95.66 percent belonged to the domestic category accounting for 40.52 percent of total energy sales and 40.66 percent of total revenue.
Industrial units, through representing only 1.67 of the total customers, have significant contribution amounting to 38.81 percent of total energy sales and 35.93 percent of total revenue earned. At a time when global economy is inevitable to hit Nepal, the new load shedding will add future woes.
"There are few critical issues that are very important to resolve the present power shortage problems. Are we paying the due attention to properly maintain the existing hydropower projects and strict adherence to dates earmarked for the completion of the projects under constructions? Have we explored all possibilities to expand the capacity of the existing hydropower projects at least cost and time to significantly enhance the generation? Can the 309 MW Upper Tamakoshi project considered a dependable project fulfill the need to solve the present load-shedding problem? At present the power demand is at the peak, whereas the capacity (KW) is greatly reduced (not necessarily energy KWh)," writes water resource expert Dr. Ananda Bahadur Thapa, in his article.
Future Projects
NEA has already proposed some major projects to meet the growing power demand in the country. Upper Tamakoshi (309 MW9, Raghughat (30 MW), Upper Trishuli – 3 A (60 MW) and Upper Modi 3A (42MW) are on different stages of development. According to NEA, these projects are expected to be commissioned within five years.NEA is expected to add 525 MW power into the system. Under the Chilime Hydro Power Company Sanjen Upper (11 MW), Sanjen (35 MW), Middle Bhotekosi (80 MW) and
Rasuwagadhi (75 MW) are planned. Similarly, under private sector, Kabeli A (30 MW), Upper Marsyangdi (50 MW) are to be commissioned by 2012. As there is uncertainty everywhere, nobody is certain that these projects will complete at proper time. The dispute of NEA with two major power projects Bhotekosi and Khimti has already sent wrong signals to the potential investors outside.
The global economic recession will have significant impacts on the foreign investment. In this scenario, Nepal's power crisis seems to be worsening further. Handing over two cheapest projects Upper Karnali and Arun III with firm energy generation capacity to export oriented foreign companies, the government has revealed its priority towards the long run power policy.
"We are committed to construct the proposed projects in accordance with our schedule. As most of these projects have already received the financial commitments from one or other companies, construction of the project seems to be not far away. Kulekhani III hydroelectric project and Chameliya Hydroelectric (30 MW) are now under constructions," said Uttar Kumar Shrestha, newly appointed managing director of Nepal Electricity Authority.
Whatever the officials say about the power crisis, as long as politicians in power do not sincerely identify their own priority; the county will have to live without power for a long time. The time has come now to decide which should get the first priority: projects for internal consumption or export?
