QUICK RESOLUTION OF PRESENT POWER SHORTAGE CRISIS
Dr. A.B Thapa
The recent shifting of the Kosi river course to the east had been followed with an enormous loss of life and property particularly in North Bihar. In future the flood damages would be quite frequent and such damages could be much more widespread. It must have now become perfectly clear to the general public as well as policy makers of India and Nepal that the works to prevent further Kosi flood damages must take priority over all other matters.
All top experts on Kosi agree that the provision of storage dams is the only solution to resolve the Kosi flood problems. We draw such conclusion from the Chinese experience also.
How China Solved Huang Ho Flood Problem?
Since 1949 some eight dams have been built and four more are under construction along its 4,674-kilometre course to control the Huang Ho River flooding. Among the dams built a long time ago are the dams Liujaxia, Sanmenxia, Longyangxia which were constructed in the years 1968, 1979 and 1988 respectively.
Necessaties of India and Nepal
It is necessary to implement as soon as possible storage dam projects – Sun-Kosi 1 and Tamar 1 - with the provision of a reasonably large share of flood storage in total storage volume of the reservoirs to save the life and property of millions in Bihar state of India and to a lesser extent that of people living in Nepal. Dr. N.K. Khosla and his team, who are the pioneer of Kosi storage projects’ study, were also in quest for high dam sites on the Tamar and Sun-Kosi. At that time the inaccessibility to potential project sites must have been the greatest hindrance.
In immediate future Nepal requires electricity to the tune of 200 MW and perhaps another 300 MW within the next 5 to 7 years.
Why Sun-Kosi High Dam First?
There are four compelling reasons why the Sun-Kosi Dam Project along with comparatively very small Tamar-1 Storage Project , instead of Kosi dam project should be immediately implemented to completely prevent the Kosi flood disaster. .
(1) Sun-Kosi Project and Tamar-1 Project can be implemented within the coming seven years if it is decided to build them on war footing. These two projects can completely resolve the Kosi flood problems at least for a period of next 40 to 50 years.
(2) The mammoth Kosi Dam Project would be comparable in volume of works and complexity in engineering studies to China’s Three Gorges Project. It took China thirty years to complete the latter part of the studies and implementation of the Three Gorges Project. It would be immoral to let the people affected by Kosi flood to suffer for such a long period if there are other quick alternatives.
(3)Immediate implementation of the Kosi high dam would have devastating flooding in the lower reaches of the Kosi in Bihar due to extensive retrogression of the river bed immediately after the dam as was seen in Boulder Dam of the USA, Danjiangku ( a tributary of Yangtze) dam etc.
(4) It is not technically possible to implement the Sun-Kosi Dam Project if the Kosi Dam Project is implemented first but it is possible to implement the latter if the Sun_Kosi Dam Project is implemented first.
Sun-Kosi and Tamar Projects
The total power generation of the 600 MW Sun-Kosi 1 and 400 MW Tamar 1 projects would be about 7,500 GWh. Both these project can be implemented within the next 7 years. Out of it about 2 years would be needed to complete further investigation and design works, and another 5 years to finish the construction works.
Cost of Projects
The investment cost of the Sun-Kosi 1 project would be around US $ 1.5 billion. Similarly, the investment cost of the Tamar-1 would be about US $ 1.0 billion. Thus the total cost of both the projects would be around US $ 2.5 billion.
Nepal Justified in Asking Indian Assistance
Nepal, wherever possible, must divert the scarce resources earmarked for our country’s power sector to the implementation of the proposed Sun-Kosi 1 and Tamar 1 projects.
Nepal’s entire resources and manpower would be fully tied up to implement the Sun-Kosi 1 and Tamar 1 projects. As a result, our country would not be in a position to take up any other new major hydropower projects to resolve the present power shortage crisis. Thus, Nepal would be fully justified in asking India to get power supply from India’s central grid to overcome the present power shortage crisis.
Power Exchange and Transmission Lines
India must be requested to agree to provide Nepal in immediate future about 200 MW power and another 300 MW within the next 5 to 7 years from their central grid. The power thus obtained from India should be gradually returned back to India after the completion of the proposed hydropower projects.
The proposed project sites in Nepal and the central power grid of India must be linked at the earliest by transmission lines adequate to supply Nepal initially about 200 MW power. The power thus received from India would also be used to meet the demand for power in course of the construction of the proposed projects. The transmission lines to be provided to supply power initially from India’s central grid to Nepal would be used later on after the completion of the proposed projects to evacuate power from Nepal to India.
Additional Source of Financing
Sun-Kosi and Tamar projects are lifeline for the vast number of people of North Bihar. Our country can expect to get every possible reasonable help from India to implement these projects at the earliest since the life and property of tens of millions of Bihar people are at stake.
It would not be unreasonable to count on generous Indian financial assistance for our country to implement the proposed Sun-Kosi and Tamar projects. The shortfall in total fund required to implement the proposed projects over the resources Nepal itself would be able to generate including the committed grant assistances from India to Nepal in hydropower sector should be met by borrowings from India. The borrowed money should be gradually repaid back by selling the power to India soon after the proposed two hydropower projects start to generate electricity.
Negotiation with India
Bilateral negotiation on water resources is a tricky job. It requires a great deal of skill, knowledge and experience to conclude the negotiation to the satisfaction of both sides. Nepal must conduct thoroughly its home works before entering into a formal dialogue with India.
