 |
| |
VOL. 28, NO. 19, Jan 16, 2009 (Magh 03 2065 B.S.) |
|
LOAD SHEDDING
Life Without Light
With the cancellation of 402MW Arun III hydro-power project in 1995, the upsurge of violent Maoist insurgency and the successive governments' failure to invest money in the power sector, they only generated 40 MW of power out of its target of 315 MW in the tenth plan beginning from 2001-2006. As the current demand of electricity is 800 MW, NEA is able to supply only 300 MW due to dry season. Due to this huge gap and no immediate sign for completion of any major project soon, the country has to go through years of crippling hours of load shedding. Although it is known as a country with abundant hydropower potential with more than 40,000 MW of economically viable power generating capacity where the politicians of all brands have made all out efforts to sell the dream to make them prosperous by selling the power, Nepal's reality is now that the country is facing darkest years in its history with 108 hours of load shedding a week. As all the major projects are in the planning stage and some good projects have already been handed over to private developers with aim to export power, Nepalese are going to have to go through such a severe power crisis for a long time come
By KESHAB POUDEL
As Nepal Electricity Authority NEA announced weekly power cut of 108 hours from Sunday (January11, 2009), it has made all out effects in the country. From education to hospital and industry to day to day life, the power shortages have hit all of them hard.
Unlike in the past when there used to be a short supply in peaking power, this time there is deficiency in the base power supply itself. This is the reason there is so many hours of load shedding.
"As the water in the river goes down, the power generating capacity is drastically reduced. We don't have other option other than to cut the power. The deficit of power is around 5.4 million units daily" said Sher Singh Bhat, chief of Systems Operation Department of Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA). "The situation will improve in two weeks. The Middle Marsyangdi will generate 35 MW in the next 15 days. But it will again depend on the water level in the rivers."
 |
River : Less water |
As the political instability continues to rock the country, there is no immediate sign for ending the power cut any time soon. Nepalese have to prepare for severe load shedding for a long time. As soon as the winter approaches when demands of power go up, the power generation declines. As there is no option for load shedding, it is going to be a way of life for the population living in the urban areas.
The demand of power continues to increase with an average of 9 percent over the previous years. The cumulative electrical energy available for use within the NEA system totaled to over 2800 GWh. NEA obtained over 1500 GWh from its own hydro generation, over 16 GWh from NEA's thermal generation, import from India declined following the damage of transmission line in Kosi area. It also purchases over 950 GWh from private generators. As the NEA has over million customers, the domestic category accounted for about 97 percent and just about 2 percent is industrial. The technical loss is over 25 percent.
According to projection, the demand of energy for 2009 will be 3428.1 GWh with 9.3 percent growth and pace 759 MW. There will be high deficit all the time. According to NEA's press release, the future challenge for the NEA is to balance the growth and supply. According to NEA, the country produced just 40 MW of power in tenth five year plan 2001-2006 out of its target to produce 300 MW.
Although Nepal has announced an ambitious programs to produce more electricity from major projects, it seems to be impossible task to complete all the major projects on time given NEA's internal dynamics.
Even Chameliya is yet to fully take off as the NEA is yet to select supplier of electro-mechanical team from Korea. Similarly, there are many obstructions in the Kulekhani III and 309 MW Upper Tamakosi is facing similar problems.
Like all prime ministers in the past, Prime minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal, whose workers created all kinds of obstruction in decade long insurgency, harped the dream of selling power to India to make Nepalese rich. Just weeks after his statement that Nepal will construct the power projects about 10,000 MW in ten years, NEA had announced the severe load shedding of 7 hours a day.
In early December the weekly load- shedding had gone up from 31 to 45 hours a week. Since then, it has been a steady northward journey much to everybody's discomfort. The weekly load shedding touched 70 hours on December 18. As per the current schedule, there will be 16 hours load shedding daily that is 108 hours a week across the nation for six days a week.
According to NEA, the consumers can get four hours of uninterrupted power supply in two spells a day and there will be two daily cuts of eight hours duration each. There will be 12 hours supply in one day in a week.
Thanks to the new harsh schedule, many industries have already declared that they will shut down factories if the government does not supply adequate power. Due to power cuts, many workers have already been laid off.
"We don't have any option now other than to shut down the industries. Despite certain relief to the industrial corridors and industrial states, large number of industries lying outside these centers are set for closure till the regular power supply," said Kush Kumar Joshi, president of FNCCI. "If government gives us an opportunity, we will find a way out."
Shortage of Power
Because of destruction of transmission line in eastern region due to Kosi flood, Nepal is not in a position to import electricity from India. Since the water collection in Kulekhani reservoir is low due to short of rainfall compared to previous years, the power production of Kulekhani declined at nominal level.
Experts argue that the present load shedding characteristics indicate that our shortage is only for a very short period. So we require additional generation capacity only to meet extreme peak demand. What Nepal requires now is power stations exclusively for meeting peak energy demand.
 |
Electric Line : High lickage |
Although Nepal's present demand is for peaking power as well as base power, Nepal needs to implement projects suitable for generation of base load and peak load. Even if NEA suppresses the demand by adding few MW in central grid, after few years the power deficit level will reach up. Arun III and Upper Karnali, which are already handed over to the foreign developers, are the best project to meet the peaking and base demand.
Although opponent of Arun III projects chanted every unreasonable slogans to the extent that the cancellation of the project gave them relief. If one reads the pamphlets distributed by anti-Arun lobby (in 1995) that argued Nepal would have to face prolonged power crisis with high tariff if it was constructed. However, looking at the present crisis, no one would justify them whatever the arguments they have in their hand. One of their arguments was that the construction of Arun III under the World Bank's money will turn the country into puppet of the imperialist dictations.
As Arun III is now handed over to Indian company and Nepal is trying to buy power from neighboring country, there is no one to raise the objections as they have done in the past.
After debacle of Arun III, 6 MW Puwa Khola, 17 MW Chillme, 140 MW Kali Gandaki, 14 MW Modi Khola, 36 MW Bhote Kosi and 75 MW Middle Marsyangdi were completed. Some small and middle level power projects were also completed by private sector.
Whatever the Anti Arun III lobby say, Nepal has lost a great opportunity and there is no such alternative in the hand now. According to experts, Arun III had capacity of 198 MW firm powers out of 201 MW. There is no project like this. Had Nepal implemented the project, the country would not have to face the present situation.
Short Term Plan
The country has identified short term hydropower development priorities that have not addressed our real requirements. Nepal presently needs additional capacity to meet extreme peak energy demand.
 |
Electric Bulb : No light |
Experts argue that the schemes for generation of peaking energy are relatively inexpensive. However, the attention is now given to rely on hydropower for base load energy generation which costs high to meet short term energy demand. Nepal could have either proposed diesel station or peaking hydropower. As the prices of diesel have gone up, hydro power could be best option.
The situation of Nepal is very contradictory. In a country reeling in load shedding, the politicians have been selling a dream by promoting the idea to make Nepalese prosperous by constructing the export oriented projects, and there is virtually no project which is under the construction for domestic use.
Arun III's Debacle
Although Middle Marsyangdi will add about 70 MW power to national grid from next year, the power is not enough to meet the growing demand of the consumers. The next five years will be darker.
As there is no new major project currently under construction, the coming days for Nepal is going to be much more difficult. " Nepal's own problems are not the shortage of power but a shortage of vision and commitments. All the major political parties concur about the power export not a power for the local generation. For full two years, they have done nothing but talk and talk," said an energy expert.
 |
Kathmandu Valley : High demand |
The load shedding has not come out of blue as it has a long history behind it. Soon after the scrapping of Arun III project in 1995, the country's overall power sector policy was virtually dysfunctional. By implementing the projects like Kali Gandaki A, Khimti, Bhote Kosi, Puwa and Chillime, the power crisis was somehow managed.
As there was no big size project in the pipe line, the load shedding became a reality. Nepal is among the few countries in Asia which started to generate hydro power a century ago but its own rate of growth is too slow. In the last one hundred years, it added just 5 MW a year in its grid.
Although anti Arun III groups are still giving many logics to prove their arguments, it is almost clear that the Arun III debacle will affect the country's power sector for a long time to come.
NEA's Capacity
Although NEA's total power generation capacity is 619 MW, it will generate about 400 MW due to reduced water level during winter. The system loss estimated to be about 25 percent means the actual power supply is 300 MW or half of its total generation. As NEA's entire power supply is based on the run-of- the-river type projects, they cannot produce the firm energy all the time. Except Kulekhani reservoir project, other rivers' energy production fluctuates according to the availability of water.
 |
Minister Poudel: No way out |
Power import from India is the only immediate option for the country. If the rehabilitation and reconstruction of high-tension line in Kosi completes on time, Nepal may import about 110 MW of power.
According to Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA), power and energy demand grew by 11.31 percent and 10.76 percent respectively in the review period. The system demand of 721.73 MW recorded on December 31, 2007, happened to be the peak power demand observed in Fiscal Year 2007/08. Likewise, energy demand over the year totaled 3490. 12 GWH. As this amount of energy was not available with the system, the deficit amounting to 309 GWh, had to be shedded to keep the electricity service running.
"There are few critical issues that are very important to resolve the present power shortage problems. Are we paying the due attention to properly maintain the existing hydropower projects and strict adherence to dates earmarked for the completion of the projects under constructions? Have we explored all possibilities to expand the capacity of the existing hydropower projects at least cost and time to significantly enhance the generation? Can the 309 MW Upper Tamakoshi project considered a dependable project to fulfill the need to solve the present load-shedding problem? At present the power demand is at the peak, whereas the capacity (KW) is greatly reduced (not necessarily energy KWh)," writes water resource expert Dr. Ananda Bahadur Thapa, in his article.
Future Projects
NEA has already proposed some major projects to meet the growing power demand in the country. Upper Tamakoshi (309 MW), Raghughat (30 MW), Upper Trishuli – 3 A (60 MW) and Upper Modi 3A (42MW) are on different stages of development.
According to NEA, these projects are expected to be commissioned within five years. NEA is expected to add 525 MW power into the system. Under the Chilime Hydro Power Company Sanjen Upper (11 MW), Sanjen (35 MW), Middle Bhotekosi (80 MW) and Rasuwagadhi (75 MW) are planned. Similarly, under private sector, Kabeli A (30 MW), Upper Marsyangdi (50 MW) are to be commissioned by 2012. As there is uncertainty everywhere, nobody is certain that these projects will complete on proper time. The dispute of NEA with two major power projects Bhotekosi and Khimti has already sent wrong signals to the potential investors outside.
The global economic recession will have significant impacts on the foreign investment. In this scenario, Nepal's power crisis seems to be worsening further. By handing over two cheapest projects Upper Karnali and Arun III with firm energy generation capacity to export-oriented foreign companies, the government has revealed its priority towards the long run power policy.
Whatever the officials say about the power crisis, as long as politicians in power do not sincerely identify their own priority; the county will have to live without power for a long time. The time has come now to decide which should get the first priority: projects for internal consumption or export?
