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VOL. 28, NO. 20, Jan 23, 2009 (Magh 10 2065 B.S.)
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Too Little, Too Slow
Nepal's capital will have to face major earth quake with devastating consequences, the preparedness needed to reduce the damage is yet to be a national agenda
By KESHAB POUDEL
It was neither a street drama nor a rehearsal of a film shooting. As the clock ticked 2:24 PM on January 16, a group of people including Minister for Industry Asta Laxmi Shakya, UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator Robert Piper, other senior government officials and workers of non-governmental organizations started to duck and prostrate to the utter amazement of pedestrians walking along the streets of Bhugol Park, a memorial of great earthquake of 1934.
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Concrete Jungle: Death trap |
To mark National Earthquake Safety Day (NESD) on Thursday, all the senior officials kneeled down and covered their heads holding the leg of a nearby table or chair to protect them during quake. That lasted for a minute.
"NESD was just a 24-hour window to raise awareness, but it will take national commitment to strictly implement the National Strategy for Disaster Management (NSDM) and the government should revise the building code," said Robert Piper. NSDM was developed in 2007 with support from the UN and other agencies.
People's apathy towards the program was understandable. When National Earthquake safety day was observed this year, there was no visible disasters to create panic, However, seventy-five years ago, on the same day at 2.24 p.m., 8,500 people had lost their lives and a quarter of all houses were destroyed when an 8.4 Richter earthquake hit Kathmandu.
"If an earthquake of similar magnitude were to hit Kathmandu today, its impact would be enormous. Thousands would be killed and thousands of buildings would collapse," warned Piper. "In 60 seconds Kathmandu is most likely to face far more deaths and the task of building a New Nepal would take a step one generation back."
According to Nepal Red Cross Society's Earthquake Contingency Plan 2008, an earthquake measuring 7-8 on the Richter scale could kill up to 50,000 people, injure 100,000 and destroy 60 percent of buildings, leaving 900,000 homeless. But even this is a very outmoded prediction as the casualty will be more than what is predicted as the number of population in the valley is over 4 million.
"Any delay in the implementation of NSDM could lead to losses worth billions," said Amod Dixit general secretary and executive director of National Society for Earthquake Technology-(NSET-N)."Lack of open space in Kathmandu could be catastrophic."
Although students, NGO workers and government officials carried slogans with appeals for earth quake safety and politicians and experts spoke about the need to take necessary precautionary measure to reduce the calamities, the building constructed around the park showed how authorities continue to remain silent over violation of building codes.
The Seismic Center records 3 quakes per day measuring 2 to 3 richter scale magnitude in Nepal. There occurs one quake of magnitude of 3 to 4 richter scale everyday. Similarly, there occurs five quakes per month of magnitude of 4 to 5 richter scale. Likewise, there occurs six quakes of magnitude of 5 to 6 richter scale per year while quakes of 6 to 7 richter scale magnitude occurs once in six years. Despite such occurrence of quakes in Nepal the seismicity is far from releasing all the energy accumulated by the rocks of the crust in Nepal due to the India/ Tibet convergence. Given its geological situation, Nepal is very vulnerable to major earth quakes.
In paper, there is everything including emergency disaster preparedness plan, the building code, hazard mapping but there is lack of commitment on the part of the government. Although it was a major day for the country, no top political leaders including prime minister saw it as a priority
NSET-Nepal
Thanks to the active efforts made by National Society for Earthquake Technology - Nepal (NSET-Nepal), people have been taking part in awareness generation programs in various parts of Nepal particularly at school level. One of the contributions of NSET-Nepal is to convince officials to organize the earth quake safety day annually. NSET-Nepal has also been supporting to build earthquake safety school buildings and raising awareness level in various areas by organizing community level programs for rescue and emergency relief. With the experts in hand, NSET-Nepal has been doing the work as much as possible.
Along with preparing earth quake hazard map of Kathmandu, NSET also conducts various programs related to earthquake preparedness. With growing pressure from NSET-Nepal and community, the government implemented the building codes. Despite all these steps, the government side is yet to work to create mass awareness campaign. Some see the earth quake resistant technology is too expensive and are discouraging people to use them.
NSET says it is largely a myth that earthquake-resistant technology is expensive, and argues that good design rather than expensive materials is the key to making a house safer. Yet, 86 percent of new houses are built without engineering oversight.
NSET, with support from international NGOs, has trained masons in building techniques, advised teachers on how to organize evacuation drills at schools, and built model earthquake-resistant schools in 26 districts
Celebration of Earthquake Day
Since 1999 Nepal has been celebrating Earthquake Safety Day but only a few urban people are aware about the safety, early preparedness, emergency rescue and such things. Even at the policy level there is little concern about the implementation of safety standard including the building code. Earthquake Safety Day is celebrated only as an annual ritual.
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School building: Vulrunable |
Experts argue that the amount of damage is strongly influenced by the composition of the underground. As the valley is a lake basin consisting of sediments such as clay-silt and sand, the large part of valley is susceptible to liquefaction to the presence of fine sand and a high water level.
However, the haphazard building construction in Kathmandu Valley indicates the level of awareness as it was like in 1934 when even then prime minister Juddha Sumsher Rana who was in his hunting trip to Pattharkot of Kanchanpur district, 800 kilometres west of Nepal held the view that the mountain surrounding the valley will prevent major quakes. According to Merokabita ko Aradhana, an auto-biography written by late Bal Krishna Sama, Juddha Sumsher, argued that even if there was earthquake somewhere else Kathmandu is safe because of walls of high hills surrounding it. Because of lack of communication, he received the news week after the devastation.
There is still some similar mindsets among the present rulers. Difference is that when Kathmandu valley was hit by the earthquake of magnitude of 8 richter scale in 1934, then Rana prime minister Juddha Sumsher was enjoying his hunting in far western Nepal and the current prime minister of New Nepal is enjoying his luxury life in Baluwatar.
With the population over 4 million, there is a heavy construction boom in the valley. According to Kathmandu Valley Town Planning, annually more than 10,000 new houses are added in the valley making it a most congested place.
"Although the municipality implemented building codes in the valley, we are yet to totally implement it," said Narayan Gopal Malego, head of Kathmandu Metropolitan. "We need to generate the awareness about the earth quake among the people of valley so that people will cooperate with us to fully implement the building code."
As the municipal body does not have elected representatives, it is now run by bureaucrats and the bureaucrats do not have big influence as it used to be with elected representatives. "We are unable to strictly implement the building codes. Even though the municipal authority can stop the construction in case it finds there is violation of building code, not a single building has yet been fined for violating the rules," said Malego. Since there require no permission to build the houses in the Village Development Committees, they are free for all.
Although the government has implemented compulsory building codes, only a few people are observing it. Since there is a lack of elected representative in local bodies, the bureaucrats are running the show. There is virtually no inspection at all and there if free for all so far as the construction of building is concerned.
Nepal has seen four major destructive earthquakes in the valley. The last earthquake, which occurred in 1934, shook valley badly turning it into a heap of rubble. According to records, Nepal faced big quakes in 1810, 1833 and 1866. The seismic record of the region, which extends back to 1255 AD, suggests the earth quake of 8 Richter occurs approximately every 75 years indicating that the devastating earth quake is inevitable in the long term and likely in the near future.
