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VOL. 03, NO. 03, July 01, 2009 (Ashadh 17 2066)
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Extending Uncertainty
Despite the extension of tenure of UNMIN for another six months, the issue of integration and rehabilitation of ex-Maoist combatants remains as thorny as ever
By BHAGIRATH YOGI
The six month - extension of tenure of the United Mission to Nepal (UNMIN) by the Madhav Kumar Nepal-led government reflects the complexities Nepali polity is passing through at the moment.
This is the fourth time that UNMIN’s tenure was extended since it was set up to facilitate Nepal’s peace process in January 2007.
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| Maoist Combatants: Uncertain Future |
One of the mandates of the UNMIN is to monitor the management of arms and armed personnel of the Nepal Army and the Maoist army, which the UN agency is undertaking in line with the provisions of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement signed between the Nepal government and CPN (Maoist) in November 2006.
But it is the proposed integration and rehabilitation of Maoist combatants that is proving a hard nut to crack as crisis of confidence prevails among the major political actors in Nepal.
Nearly a year after the elections to the Constituent Assembly and nearly seven months after the formation of the Maoist-led coalition, an eight member Army Integration Special Committee (AISC) was constituted under the chairmanship of premier Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda.’ A separate eight-member Army Integration Technical Committee (AITC) was also formed to assist the AISC in its job. But the AISC remains defunct after the sudden downfall of the Maoist-led coalition last month.
As Nepal’s peace process reaches arguably one of the most critical junctures yet, international community –that was quite upbeat when the CPA was signed—has started pressurizing both the government and the Maoists to set aside their differences and find a common ground for the integration of the Maoist combatants.
While visiting Kathmandu in early June, the newly appointed US assistant secretary of state for South Asian affairs, Robert Blake, warned that the international community did not have unlimited patience. He urged rival parties to work together to achieve peace in Nepal.
“In diplomatic speak, this is a veiled warning to Maoists as they seem to be buying time in the past,” said Dipak Gajurel, a political analyst and assistant professor at the Tribhuvan University. “Now, the Maoists and the government need to put their cards on the table.”
Soon after the visit of Indian Foreign Secretary, Shiva Shanker Menon to Kathmandu, Prime Minister Madhav Kumar Nepal first put his cards on the table. He told Reuters news agency that only up to 5,000 former combatants who fulfilled criteria for enrollment in the national army could be absorbed in the Nepal Army and that the remainder must be given alternative jobs. “The future of Maoist fighters must be settled before the new constitution is written. The rehabilitation of combatants would be complete by the end of the year,” he added.
What prompted premier Nepal to stick to the magic figure of 5,000—which is just one-fourth of nearly 20,000 Maoist combatants verified by the UNMIN—is not known but it comes close to assertion by Maoist supremo Prachanda—while addressing his combatants more than one and half years ago that the real strength of his party’s fighters was around 7,000-8,000 only. After the controversial video was made public, the Maoist chairman tried to downplay it saying that he had said it in a different context.
Prime minister Nepal too has tried to downplay the remarks that he purportedly made in the Reuters interview. His office has denied the remarks attributed to the prime minister. The office said that the PM’s remarks have been distorted and put out of context.
But the controversy has not died down. The Maoists leaders suspect that the fresh proposal by the premier has been put forth to divert their major demands like ‘maintaining civilian supremacy over the army’ and correction of President’s move. “We are not ready to discuss the modalities of (army) integration unless our major demands are addressed,” said Barsha Man Pun ‘Anant,’ a senior Maoist leader.
Whatever Maoist leaders may say, it is but obvious that they are under tremendous pressure to fulfill their promises as stated in various agreements and understandings that they had signed in recent past. Analysts, however, say precondition for any progress towards integration or rehabilitation of the Maoist combatants would be return to power for the former rebels. Whether they would agree to join the so-called ‘national government’ or insist that they head the new coalition remains to be seen.
But, changing geo-politics may not be helpful for the Maoists. The routing of LTTE in Sri Lanka and the Indian government’s decision to ban Indian Maoists may have limited the options for Nepali Maoists. But as the single largest party in the 601-member Constituent Assembly and a nationwide network of militant cadres, they still hold the key to success or otherwise of the peace process. Dialogue and encouragement, rather than isolation, may help the process, say analysts.
But, many people believe that the present coalition is too fragile to push through a major agenda like army integration—that too within the next six months. Stakes may never have been so high for the Nepali political actors as well as for the international community.
