WORLD CLOSE TO DEADLIEST CATASTROPHE TRIGGERED BY KOSI EMBANKMENT BREACH
Dr. A.B. Thapa
The Yellow River of China known as “the Sorrow of China” resembles to a considerable extent the Kosi River similarly known as “the Sorrow of Bihar”. The killer Yellow River has already been tamed after the completion of the construction of several storage dams and it has completely relinquished its aggressive character, whereas the greatly feared Kosi River held back by side embankments and now flowing well above the adjoining surrounding lands remains a great danger to life and property of millions of our region. Judging from the angle of similarity between these two rivers the way they roamed rampaging their vast floodplain quite often completely changing their course, it appears, the world might be very close to the deadliest catastrophe triggered by the failure of the Kosi embankments.
World’s Worst Natural Disasters
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| Shifting Courses of the Yellow River |
Among the world’s top five worst natural disasters are the 1931 Yellow River flood in China, the 1887 Yellow River flood, the 1938 Yellow River flood, the Bhola Cyclone of 1970 in East Pakistan (now Bangladesh) and the 1556 Shaanxi earthquake in China. The next five in order of severity are the 1839 Cyclone in Coringa India, the 1642 Kaifeng flood in Henan province China, the 2004 Indian Ocean Earthquake and Tsunami in various nations, and the 1138 Allepo Earthquake in Syria.
The 1931 Yellow River flood devastated the China in summer. It took the lives of people numbering between one to four millions. It is the worst natural disaster ever to have been recorded of any time. The 1887 Yellow River flood resulted from a long period of rains which caused the river water to rise above the man made dikes. When that happened, it resulted in the worst natural disaster ever recorded prior to the 1931 flood. It is believed that between 900,000-2,000,000 people had lost their lives in that horrible disaster. The 1938 Yellow River flood disaster claimed the lives of people numbering between 500,000 and 900,000.
A Hanging River
The Kosi embankment had been designed for a maximum flood discharge of 9.5 lakh cusecs. The annual rate of the sedimentation upstream barrage based on observations as of the early 1980s is about 5 cm per annum. It implies that within the last 50 years after the commissioning of the barrage a layer of 2.5 meters thick sediments might have already deposited on the river bed. Now the Kosi also, as said about the Yellow River, truly looks like a hanging river. At present the capacity of the barrage to discharge safely the maximum flood could be only about 5 lakh cusecs, which is further decreasing year by year due to continued bed level rise. It is pretty obvious that in future the breaching of the Kosi embankments even during minor floods would be a regular phenomenon.
Monstrous Kosi
Very recently the Kosi burst the eastern embankment unleashing a reign of terror and shifted its course headed to south when the flood discharge was only about one lack and eighty thousand cusecs. This flood discharge is quite insignificant compared to the flood discharge of around nine lakh cusecs, which had already been recorded twice within the last fifty years. In spite of it the Bihar and Nepal suffered very heavy losses. The whole world was badly shaken by the news of this disaster.
It is frightening even to think of the horrors if the Kosi would suddenly burst the embankment at a time when the flood discharge is close to nine lakh cusecs. Needless to say that there would be a total devastation of the whole north-east Bihar. The flooding could have disastrous consequences for regions far beyond Bihar. The railways and roadways linking India’s north-east states with the rest of the country could be severed. Even the distant West Bengal and Bangladesh lying on the old course of the Kosi might not be completely out of the Kosi flood danger.
There is little doubt that the last year’s flood disaster is only the precursor of the deadliest catastrophe to be triggered off by the Kosi embankment failure in very near future. Many renowned top scholars, like Schilling Feld, had been forecasting since a long time the extreme severity of the fast approaching Kosi flood disaster.
The Present Day Yellow River
Since 1949 some eight dams have been built and four more are under construction along its 4,674-kilometre course to control the Yellow River flooding. Among the dams built a long time ago are the dams Liujaxia, Sanmenxia, Longyangxia which were constructed in the years 1968, 1979 and 1988 respectively. Now the Yellow River flood problems have been completely solved. Xlong Lel writes in CHINA DAILY dated October 16, 1998 that keeping the Yellow River at bay has saved China US $ 50 billion.
Taming the Kosi
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| Shifting Courses of the Kosi River |
It would be a big mistake to opt to implement at the very beginning the mammoth Kosi dam project to resolve the rapidly worsening flood situation. It will take a very long time to complete the detailed study and construction of the optimum sized Kosi dam project, that might have a dam perhaps the highest in the world and a hydropower plant capable to generate about 16,000 MW in accordance with further studies based on more correct recent data and well tested evaluation procedures recently applied in the Karnali project study.
Fortunately for us, there is a quick and easy solution. The implementation of relatively small Sun-Kosi Project and Tamar-1 Project would suffice to resolve the Kosi flood problems at least for a period of next 50 to 60 years.
Bihar Deeply Concerned
People of Bihar are often heard complaining that the Government of India is not doing enough to develop their state. Voicing the concern of the Bihar people Mr. Nikhilesh Jha, Joint Secretary CSIR has alleged in one of his published articles that the Bihar state was getting raw deal from the central government in allocation of resources. As a result Bihar being among the top three states of the country in terms of per capita income and administration in the early ‘50s has now languished at the bottom of ladder for decades.
It is certain that the Government of India would not leave the Bihar people in lurch in their efforts to protect themselves against the Kosi flood disasters. The projects earmarked to save the life and property of millions of Bihar people would be a top priority.
