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VOL. 28, NO. 24, March 20, 2009 (Chaitra 07 2065) |
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Adaptation
Is
Key
With extreme weather events occurring, Nepal’s agriculture system, which has been modernized by spending huge amount of resources over the last five decades, is facing a serious crisis to retain its achievements indicating that it will have far reaching implications on the life of millions of poor people living in different parts of the country. At a time when frequency of extreme events such as rainfalls causing flooding, landslides and droughts, heat stress, hot winds, cold waves, hailstorms and snowfalls have been noticeably increasing, the life of rural farmer constantly under threat from starvation to disaster. Although this is still a preliminary stage, the change in weather pattern is definite to affect the overall agriculture system in coming days. As the change in the weather pattern is unavoidable, the only way to minimize the effect in agriculture sector is to prepare a new adaptation strategy
By KESHAB POUDEL
“The cauliflower blossomed in a very short period of time this year. The cabbage, too, bloomed before schedule normal period. Similarly, mango flowers blossomed in the second week of January,” said Chandra Humagain, an agriculture technician at Panchkhal Horticulture Center, a government owned research farm for spices. All the spices and fruit, which usually grow during the hot weather, are now growing even in the midst of chilly weather of January.
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Agricultural Farm: New Change |
“The mango and Lichchi flower generally flourished at the end of February,” said Humagain who have been working in Panchkhal for last twenty years. “This is very unusual phenomenon. The temperature rose by 2 to 3 degree Celsius higher than last year during the month of January,” said Humagain.
Known as a successful pocket for transforming from subsistence-based agriculture to commercialization of vegetable crops, Panchkhal, a small valley with tropical climate, is a major vegetable supply center for capital Kathmandu. Thanks to abnormal temperature and dry months, the farmers have born heavy loss this year.
“We didn’t expect this kind of extreme weather. If this trend continues, we need to go for other kinds of crops,” said Krishna Prasad Sapkota, a small off season vegetable grower of Panchkhal. “I have lost Rs. 25,000 (US$ 300) because of early blossoming of Cauliflower in January and February.”
Along with Sapkota, Nepal’s farmers, whose per capita income have gone up recently and came out of the trap of absolute poverty by shifting to off season vegetables, are now in trouble. Even the farmers relying on traditional crops like rice, maize or wheat have to face similar situation.
Even if government announces alternatives crops now, the change in the weather pattern is going to bring about a major impact in the agriculture sector. With the variant of topography and climate, Nepal requires huge resources and time to switch from the present system.
The mercury rise has not only affected vegetables and fruits. Even wild red fruits like strawberry, which is supposed to grow in mid March and April, flourished in second week of February in Dadeldhura district, 700 kilometer west of capital Kathmandu this year.
“Although one cannot generalize the situation looking at this year’s extreme weather phenomenon, it has indicated that there is definitely something happening in the overall atmosphere,” said Dharmaji Bhujang Rao, resource person from UNDP, in a program National Awareness Raising Workshop on Climate Change.
Organized by Ministry of Environment Science and Technology and UNDP headquarter in February 9-11, the experts from Nepal discussed various issues regarding the effects of climate change and ways for mitigation and adaptation.
Extreme Weather
Over the last few years, Nepal has seen a number of extreme weather including hot and cold events taking place resulting in intense floods and drought and affecting the life of overwhelming people surviving in subsistence farming. These new phenomenon is also making serious effects in commercialization of agriculture.
In the month of September 2008, the far western region was badly affected caused by heavy rainfalls. According to UN Office of Commission of Humanitarian Assistance, the heavy rains of September 19 hit several districts in mid and far western regions of Nepal. The incessant rains caused floods and landslides in Bardia, Banke, Dang, Dadeldhura, Kailali, Kanchanpur, Doti and Salayan districts. In Kaliali and Kanchanpur districts, 180,000 people were displaced. According to Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, it recorded the rain of over 400 mm, one quarter of total rainfall of three months monsoon period, in just 24 hours.
In August 2007, the heavy rainfall badly damaged vast areas of agriculture land destroying the crops worth millions of rupees in Banke and Bardia of mid-western region.
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Himalayas: Snow melting |
General temperature in Nepal is increasing and temperature in the Himalayan region is increasing in faster rate with serious impacts on glacial lakes. According to the report of Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, there are definite trends in aggregate precipitation but evidences of more intense precipitation observed in different parts of the country.
“Thanks to the change in the weather pattern, the country has seen adverse crop yield due to winter cold wave. The production of potato, toria sorson, raya, lentil, and chickpea has been affected,” said Bal Krishna Prasai, an expert who prepared a national paper for National Awareness Raising Workshop on Climate Change. “Due to shift in climate zones upwards, maize, chilli, tomato and cucumber is now adapting in Mustang, over 14000 feet above sea level.”
Food Production
According to Bal Krishna Prasai, in his paper, National Issues Paper on Adaptation, in the last decade, rice yield increased by 95 percent in terai and 5.9 percent in hill and 16.6 percent in mountain.
Based on the data compiled from 1995-2007, Prasai drew the conclusion that the production will continue to increase to 17.9 percent in hills and 36.1 percent in mountains up to the rise of 4 degree Celsius. The yield dropped to -0.8 percent in terai and 14.6 percent in hills but increased to 39.1 in mountain at 4 degree Celsius rises and plus 20 percent rain.
Prasai said that maize actual yield under the elevated CO2 rose 9 percent only in Terai, 4.9 percent in hills and 15.5 percent in mountains. Wheat actual yield rose to 41. 5 percent in terai, 24.4 percent in hills and 21.2 percent in mountain under elevated CO2 but the wheat yield dropped to -1.8 percent in terai and 5 percent in hills but increased to 33.3 percent in mountain at the rise of 4 degree Celsius.
“An indication of effect of rainfall on rice productivity in summer was not significant but greater effect of winter rain on wheat productivity was observed,” said Prasai.
Agriculture experts are worried about the shifts in the weather pattern. “If this weather pattern is indication for long term change, we must develop a new crops and new system to cope with the situation,” said Deepak Mani Pokharel, senior Horticulture Development Officer of Ministry of Agriculture and Cooperatives.
There are some advantages as well. According to experts, 4 degree Celsius rise in temperature and 20 percent increase in precipitation could increase paddy yield from 0.09 to 7.5 percent and beyond that the yield would decline, actual yield of wheat would increase in winter Nepal with the rise of temperature and decline in other regions. Due to extreme events, there will be forced migration and loss of biodiversity and fertile land due to extreme events.
Nepal is an agriculture country with contribution to 80 percent employment, and 38 percent GDP. Out of total land, only 33 percent cultivated land is irrigated and remaining 67 percent are rain fed. “As the weather pattern is changing, there is a need to new cropping system adjusting planting dates and cultivar selections. Besides that there is also need in developing and use of drought, flood and disease and pest resistant varieties of crops, rice for rain fed condition, rice for lowland rain fed condition, special vegetable and wheat. Crop insurance, resource conservation activity, minimum tillage, zero tillage, bed planting, rotation of crops are other necessary adaptation means,” said Ananda Kumar Gautam, chief of agro environment unit at Nepal Agriculture Research Council.
Although it is still in early stage, the efforts have already been made to introduce the alternatives. Encouragement to crop diversification program, alternative crops and cropping pattern and promotion of organic based farming are some of the strategies adopted by the government.
Experts argue that it is too little and too late compared to the impacts the farmers have been facing in the recent years. “If this trend continues, the entire success of commercialization of agriculture through the vegetable production will suffer a setback,” said Humagain. “Even the entire range of Panchkhal, which flourished as a vegetable production center will collapse causing heavy damage in the life of the people.”
Frequency of extreme events has been noticeably increasing in the last decade. There are adverse impacts on crop yield due to winter cold wave and hot wave. Crops like potato, sorson, raya, lentil, chickpea crops suffer a lot.
Rain and Drought
After heavy rain in September, the whole country faced dry season with a very nominal rainfall from September 2008 to March 2009. The months of December and January of 2009 were the hottest in winter. December 2004 was the coldest in decade. In 2009, average temperature of January and February went 2-3 degree Celsius higher than the previous years.
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Winter Crop: Pumping water |
According to the record of Meteorological department, Kathmandu recorded coldest day for the month of December in decade in December 27, 2004 with mercury plunging to -3 degree Celsius. This is a record temperature level for valley since 1992. According to the experts at Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, valley has experienced -2 degree Celsius in New Years Eve in 1977. Fall in temperature has been attributed to the snow heavy hall in the northern Himalaya. This year, however, there was virtually no snow fall.
According to experts, temperature is rising at a rate of 0.06 degree Celsius per year. Days and nights are becoming warmer. Decreasing number of annual rainy days but increasing number of rainy days with over 100 mm also suggest increasing frequency of erratic weather. Rainfall pattern is changing (season, duration and amount).
“The country remained drier and much warmer in month of December. Dense fog condition started at the end of second week and lasted for whole third week and into the few days of fourth week. The rain fall varied in accordance to the place from no rain fall to 24 MM in Okhaldhunga in eastern Nepal. Except some isolated spots of central parts, the mean temperature was above normal in large parts of the country,” said Director General of Department of Hydrology and Meteorology. “The situation in the month of January and February remained similar.”
Climate Change
Climate change is now a scientifically established fact. According to Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the average temperature of the earth surface has risen by 0.74 degree Celsius since the late 1800s. It is expected to increase by another 1.8 degree Celsius by the year 2100. According to meteorological data, twelve warmest years were between 1987 to 2006 and 2006 was the hottest year.
“The average temperature is increasing at 0.06 degree Celsius in Nepal. The temperature in the Himalayas is increasing at a faster rate with serious impacts on glacial lakes. No definite trends in aggregate precipitation, but evidences of more intense precipitation events have been observed,” said Batu Krishna Uprety, Under Secretary of Ministry of Environment Science and Technology.
Others, too, agree that there are enough evidences to prove how change of weather is causing havoc. As annual temperature is rising at a rate of 0.06 degree Celsius per year, Nepal’s agriculture system is going to be more vulnerable. “There will be forced migration, loss of biodiversity due to extreme events. There will increase floods, landslides and droughts,” said Adharsha Pokharel, former director general of Department of Hydrology and Meteorology.
As the weather pattern is unstable and unpredictable with extreme events, Nepal’s poor farmers will have to bear major effects. The adaptation is the key to face the extreme events and sustain the agriculture growth.
With a country of over 50 percent population living below poverty line, the effect of weather change will hurt poor farmers like Humagain. It took him nearly a decade to adapt to off season vegetables giving up subsistence farming. Given the change in weather, he does not know, which way he will have to follow now.
