 |
| |
VOL. 03, NO. 11, Oct. 30 2009 (Kartik 13, 2066) |
|
NEIGHBOURS
Difficult Frontiers
As deep and prolonged instability looms large over the political horizon of the neighboring Nepal heightening their security concerns, India and China scramble for a cover leaving the sandwiched nation in the woods. But there is hope, still.
By SUSHIL SHARMA
With SAROJ DAHAL in Kathmandu, UMAKANTA KHANAL in Jhapa and SITA MADEMBA in Dharan
 |
| Indian Ambassador Rakesh Sud (middle) with loacal monks in Mustang: Up north Photo: Indian Embassy |
Indian ambassador Rakesh Sood goes up north in Mustang, on the borders with China. For “trekking” -- in an area China considers most sensitive to its security. (The area was a major base of the Khampa rebellion, in the early Seventies, against the Chinese rule in Tibet).
He had been preceded a few months ago by a number of western diplomats including the-then US ambassador Nancy Powell.
Unlike his western counterparts, Sood gets permission from the Nepalese government to enter areas that had remained “restricted” for decades due to the Chinese sensitivities. He doles out funds to the saffron-clad monks for the local monasteries and schools.
Chinese diplomats get angry. They question, what is the point of declaring “restricted”, if permission is given to enter the area.
Down south, Chinese ambassador Qiu Guohong gets himself busy in areas on the borders with India near what is called the sensitive “chicken-neck” zone.
He opens China Study Centre in Jhapa that borders the (in)famous Naxalbari – the birthplace of India’s present number one internal security threat, the Maoist insurgency.
Qiu opens a Confucius centre in the nearby Itahari and assures all possible help to the locals after an unprecedented rousing reception by the janjati-dominated Dharan.
The Indian intelligence agencies get alarmed. The media quotes them as warning that the Chinese activities on the Nepal’s borders with India are “harmful”.
What is likely to alarm the Indian authorities even more is the reported Chinese plan for a penetration in a totally new area - the media.
According to sources, China is considering ways to “invest” in big media to counter the similar “investment” from the countries it sees as its rivals in Nepal.
It wants to make “a front door” entry not “a backdoor-entry”, though, said the sources. They did not elaborate.
 |
| Chinese Ambassador Qiu Guhong (center) in kakadbihtta: Down south Photo (Umakanta Khanal) |
The moves and countermoves of the big neighbors are only a reflection of their growing sense of insecurity in Nepal.
Said former foreign minister, Upendra Yadav, “both are deeply suspicious of each other.”
Security remains the top concerns of both.
As Nepal faces an uncertain future amidst an increasingly dangerous political transition, their security concerns have heightened.
This has led to a flurry of visits to and from both countries.
After two former prime minister, Sher Bahadur Deuba and Surya Bahadur Thapa, the UML boss Jhalnath Khanal is due to visit Delhi shortly.
Apart from the prime minister Man Mohan Singh, Khanal is expected to meet, of all people, a non-political but the influential national security advisor M.K. Narayanan.
That was what Thapa and Deuba also did.
On its part, China played host to the Maoist chief, Prachanda, in a highly publicized visit.
Chinese president Hu Jintao showed a rare gesture by sparing time to meet Prachanda.
Although the meeting lasted less than 10 minutes contrary to earlier reports of a longer chat, the Chinese president chose the occasion to counsel the Nepalese Maoists not to rock the fluid political situation.
He is also said to have cautioned against “annoying” India.
But the meeting held out of Beijing sent a shock wave across the Nepal-watchers and policy makers and the executioners in Delhi.
So much for the mutual mistrust and suspicion of Nepal’s neighbors.
“The unpredictable future of Nepali political course has made them nervous”, said a former foreign minister.
The political instability along with the absence of a stable and strong institution or leader in Nepal has left both neighbors without anyone to look up to, to take care of their concerns.
Hence both have been forced to bear the responsibility themselves.
The result: a free-for-all with a potential of exploding into a situation like that in Lebanon, Afghanistan or former Yugoslavia.
Some analysts see that as a too pessimistic assessment. But the big neighbors themselves do not feel sure about Nepal speaks for the gravity of the situation.
And there are some who see a ray of hope in the expanding economic and business ties between the two Asian giants. According to them, the two will be fool to risk big economic gains to make small political profit.
As both have a common stake in peace and stability of Nepal, the two can come to an agreement on how to achieve it.
Since India has a dominant say and influence in the Nepali affairs, the initiative will rest on it. And since China has come in a big way in recent years, India can not go it alone as in the past. Given the recent escalation in bilateral tension, the two biggies will be much warier of each other in their small neighborhood.
Reliable sources say, India is toying with two ideas at this stage for ensuring political stability. One, facilitating a national government with a non-Maoist figure as its head. Two, support an army-backed presidential rule.
Either of the options will need a vital pre-condition to yield the desired results of stability, said a highly-connected analyst.
“That is: the consent and full support of China.”
‘We Are Trapped In Mutual Suspicion Of India And China’
-- UPENDRA YADAV
Former foreign minister and chairman, Madhesi Janadhikar Forum
Lately, both India and China seem overly interested in Nepali politics. How has this affected Nepal?
India and China are suspicious of each other. Unfortunately Nepal is sandwiched between the two, hence the present unfortunate situation. Indirect influences are but natural. But if diplomatic influences are avoided Nepal could become politically stable and economically prosperous.
Man Mohan Singh Coming?
Amidst criticism over the Indian non-reciprocity vis-à-vis the prime ministerial visit to each other, Prime minister Man Mohan Singh is expected to visit Nepal early next year.
The visit is expected to take place in January.
Preliminary preparations are already underway although a final decision has not been made yet.
Barring the unforeseen and barring the unpredictable political situation in Nepal, Singh will definitely visit Nepal, said a highly placed source.
It will be the first visit by an Indian prime minister in more than a decade. The last prime minister to visit Nepal was Inder Kumar Gujral.
There had been five visits by Nepalese prime ministers to India since then.
‘ China Wants To See Us Lead the Government’
-- KRISHNA BAHADUR MAHARA
Former Information Minister and Senior Leader, UCPN (Maoist)
While in Beijing, how did you find the Chinese assessment of present political situation in Nepal?
The Chinese authorities appreciated our position. They said that being the largest party we should lead the government and that the constitution-making and peace process should move smoothly.
What about the Indian assessment? You often meet the Indian leaders too. What difference did you find?
Unlike India, China does not prescribe the mode of government in Nepal and that who should lead it and who should not. All it wants is the end to frequent change of government and end to any hostile activities against China.
Are you distancing away from India and getting closer to China?
No. In fact, our relations with India make up 80 per cent while with China it has just reached 20 per cent. How can we be closer to China than with India?
So are you going on a visit to India soon?
If invited, we are ready to go there. Talks are also underway to this effect. It is not that our relations with India have become bad or relations with others better.
But you accuse India of blatant interference in Nepal’s internal affairs.
I don’t think Nepal and India have bad relations. But to quote an Indian author, “ India is a big country with a very small heart.” Even now, everybody knows that the key of the Nepali government is not inside Nepal.
