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Extended Ceasefire
After the seven-party alliance struck an agreement with the Maoist rebels in Indian capital Delhi in mid-November, the course of political events in Nepal has suddenly taken a new turn. With all the anti-palace political forces concentrated in one camp, the palace was expected to take some drastic steps immediately.
But what drastic steps? The speculations were and still are, rife. While some predict that the palace will take a number of very strong steps to crush the Maoist insurgents as well as the seven-party alliance, others foresee a complete U-turn in the palace stance and returning the power back to the political parties. However, the King’s immediate response has been further expansion and reshuffle in the Council of Ministers.
The understanding however does not mean a working alliance, say the leaders of political parties. According to Nepali Congress President Girija Prasad Koirala, the Maoists and parties will not be working together. However, they will not be confronting each other and their activities will be directed only towards getting the people’s rights back.
One good point of the parties-Maoists understanding is that the Maoists have agreed to abide by the principles of multiplicity of political parties, civil liberties, human rights, rule of law and democratic values and stopped insisting for a republican state. They have now stopped insisting for abolition of the ‘monarchy’ itself and started advocating for the abolition of ‘autocratic monarchy’, which is equivalent to the concept of ‘constitutional monarchy’, the ideology of the other political parties. The Maoists have not agreed to lay down the arms right now, but they have agreed to put their armed forces under the supervision of the United Nations or any other credible international agency for the period of the election to the constituent assembly if the government army too is put under similar supervision.
Both sides have agreed that an election has to be held for a constituent assembly to draft the next constitution for the country, but they are yet to develop an agreement regarding how to go about that. While the parties are of the view that first the dissolved House of Representatives has to be restored, then an all party government has to be set up which will hold talks with the Maoists and finally the election has to be held for the constituent assembly, the Maoists are insisting that a national political conference of the democratic forces has to be held and it should choose an all-party government to conduct the election to the constituent assembly.
Since these modalities are still not made clear, some political analysts think that the final solution to the present stalemate is still not near the sight.
Therefore, all sides were waiting for the king’s return from his African visit. As the scheduled date of arrival of the king (December 2) coincided with the date when the three-month long unilateral ceasefire of the Maoists was to expire, it was expected that the government would announce its ceasefire. But that did not happen while the Maoists extended their ceasefire for one more month showing that they are really serious about peace. Had they failed to do so, their claim to be a political force would not have held water. Whether this will encourage the international forces like the USA to change their view about the Maoists and start treating them as non-terrorist force is still to be seen. If that perception continues it will benefit the present government, not the opposition parties nor the Maoists. On the other hand as the government failed to respond positively to the party-Maoist roadmap, the parties may be forced to be further closer to the Maoists and agree to the agenda of the rebels to hold national conference (the so called round table conference).
In the message to the nation upon his return home, the king sounded determined to go along his own way (holding municipal elections) though he passingly mentioned that any effort from any quarter to restore peace would be welcome. The expansion of the council of ministers is a confirmation of that mood.
In case the new council of ministers announces ceasefire and engages in patient dialogue with the opposition political parties and the Maoists, the days of armed conflict may be over though the final solution to the ongoing problems and restoration of complete stability in the country would still take a long journey.
But everyone is ready to wait for that as there is no credible alternate and peace processes throughout the world have proven lengthy exercises.
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