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Ceasefire Gambit
Declaring a unilateral ceasefire for three months covering the Dasain and Tihar festivals, the Maoists created an awkward situation for the other two sides in the present conflict – the king and the mainstream political parties. Though the political parties cautiously welcomed the ceasefire and have been reminding the rebels to honour the spirit of the ceasefire, they are still hesitating to go the whole hog in forming a full-fledged alliance with the rebels. The king and his government have not come up with a specific response.
Though the king in his recent visit to the Terai of the Central Development Region was reported to have said that the final solution will require a dialogue, the ministers and the army spokesman are trying their best to convince the people that the Maoist ceasefire is only a ploy to recollect their strength and start their violence in a more fierce manner. If one recalls the experience from the previous ceasefires, there is a strong basis to doubt Maoist intention.
However, the government’s failure to respond positively to the Maoist step is taken as the reason why the king was forced to cancel his planned trip to New York to attend the 60 th anniversary summit of the United Nations. This gave the political parties a strong ground to claim that the present government is being treated as a pariah by the international community.
The other two most important political developments of the month were the decisions by the two largest political parties, Nepali Congress and CPN-UML, to officially become neutral about monarchy.
Meanwhile, the political parties have started more powerful street demonstrations demanding restoration of parliamentary democracy. But the strength of the agitation is likely to dissipate as the festival holidays draw closer.
Another related development was the revival of the old writ petition at the Supreme Court demanding restoration of the dissolved lower house of parliament. Some interpreted it as a ploy to appease the parties and dissuade them from forming an alliance with the Maoists. The Supreme Court has formed a full bench to review the case, but no further developments have taken place. However, reports quoting sources close to the authorities, as appearing in the press, say the palace is finalising the draft new constitution. The speculation is that the new constitution may be promulgated by the king with his annual Dasain message to the people (i.e. on October 12) or on the Constitution Day (November 9.)
This speculation received further support after Vice-Chairman of the Council of Ministers Dr. Tulsi Giri made a public statement at Biratnagar that the present constitution needs to be reversed.
Meanwhile, the business community too started taking to the streets demanding improvement in the law and order situation and better protection to the business units. As the business community is regarded to have a tendency to support whoever comes to power, the latest change in their strategy is being interpreted as an expression of their frustration with the present state of affairs.
Lately, the government issued a draft amendment in the labour law with proposal to incorporate many of the facilities demanded by the employers. That is obviously to appease the business community and dissuade them from being anti-government but has in fact provided an issue for the trade unions (affiliated to the political parties) to go for their own agitation which may only further incite the ongoing political agitation.
Equally important is the recent expressions of some staunch Royalists against the present government.
Considering all these, some analysts have started predicting significant change – both in policy as well as the government – during or after the festival holidays.
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