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EARTH QUAKE Time Bomb Is Ticking Lying in the seismically active zone, Kathmandu valley is prone
to devastating earthquake like that of Turkey. If similar tremor were to hit Nepal,
can we handle it? It is imperative that the government should stop construction of unsafe
houses and start awareness campiagn to lessen the damage. The question is: Is anybody
listening? -By KESHAB POUDEL After the devastating earthquake struck Turkey last week, Astaman Tandukar, 79, a resident of Koteshwor, recalled the day in 1934 when a similar quake had levelled the valley killing ten thousand people.
Astaman and his colleagues were witness to the catastrophe that can struck again as the government is not taking any steps to minimize effects of possible quakes. The comparison of the great quake of 1934 to Turkey's recent quake shows that loss of life and damage of property by earthquake occur basically due to collapse of buildings and other physical infrastructures. Effective national plan of preparedness can save the country from heavy damages and loss of lives resulting from such quakes. Unfortunately, nobody seems to be worried about hazards of the earthquake in the country. Nepal needs to strictly maintain the building codes and structural standards to prevent the construction of unsafe houses. Although Nepal lies in seismically active belt, earthquake preparedness has always received low priority. Even after knowing all these facts, the government and policy makers seem least interested to look into them. The situation is so bad that if the disaster happened there would be utter lack of coordination among different organizations to carry out rescue and evacuation efforts. In Turkey's case, local communities played a crucial role in rescuing and evacuating people trapped in collapsed buildings. Will the population of valley do similar works at times of disaster? "Unfortunately, the government agencies have hardly organized any training programs to train local volunteers about the post disaster rescue efforts," said an expert. Our Valley even lacks basic equipment like hammers, which are needed to rescue the population trapped in collapsed buildings. The hospitals and health related institutions require special programs to carry out efficient rescue at times of disaster. "Health ministry has regular programs to manage disastrous events. We have medicines and doctors on stand by to deliver treatment," Shree Kant Regmi, secretary at the Ministry of Health said. "We are also developing emergency rescue packages to carry out in the large scale treatment facilities." The tremor of 1988 taught some lessons to the country but important components to minimize damages are still ignored. Many unplanned and risky buildings have been erected in the valley since then and many others are under construction.
Faulty structure is one of the main reasons for large number of casualties and property losses. When even a country like Turkey was found to have such faults, one can only imagine how the situation would be in Nepal. "Almost all the buildings are erected without following basic guidelines and structural estimates. No basic precautions are taken against seismic activities," said architectural engineer Bharat Sharma. Although Central Disaster Relief Committee exists under the chairmanship of Home Minister to carry out relief, many doubt its capability to effectively manage rescue and relief operation in a city like Kathmandu that has the huge population of 1.4 million. "The ministry has experience to carry out rescue operations but we don't know how effective our mechanism will turn out to be when there is a need to evacuate large number of people," said a senior official at the Ministry of Home Affairs. As majority of the buildings are constructed below the level of basic standard, the earthquake like that of 1934 can destroy the valley.
"Lack of earthquake preparedness is that the available technical information has not been synthesized and applied to the infrastructure of modern day Kathmandu valley," said Amod Dixit, general secretary of National Society for Earthquake Technology-Nepal (NSET-NEPAL). At a time when the risk of major earthquake is very high in the valley, the policy makers and planners are yet to realize it. Although NSET-NEPAL is implementing Kathmandu Valley Earthquake Risk Management Project, they are still to take action to minimize the risk from a possible great quake. The technology of earthquake mitigation is affordable. "If people only spend 3-4 percent more money when constructing buildings, the risk can be minimized," said Dixit.
After the implementation of projects, it estimated possible loss of simple earthquake and major ones. It also gathered information on Kathmandu Valley's infrastructures. One of the positive parts of the project is that it is increasing awareness among political leaders of Kathmandu valley to forestall the valley's earthquake risk. "Kathmandu Municipality has already prepared a disaster preparedness plan for ward no 20," said Padma Sunder Joshi, chief of Urban Development Department, Kathmandu Metropolitan City. "We will prepare such plans for other wards also." Bhaktapur and Lalitpur municipalities are also considering to carry out campaigns to aware local population about the earthquake and ways to minimize damages. "I am strictly monitoring building construction work in the area and considering to train local volunteers," said Buddhi Raj Bajracharya, mayor of Lalitpur sub-metropolitan area. Although some positive steps have been taken by local bodies, central government virtually lacks national level preparedness program for major earthquakes.
The earthquake is not a problem of the valley, but the unplanned construction. The houses constructed without plans will increase the damage of life and property. The people of Kathmandu valley are also ignorant of the past devastation and experiences shared by their forefathers. If we go through the practices of last two decades, no one believes that devastation in Turkey will bring any change in the minds of the policy makers or city dwellers. "I am scared to calculate possible damages in the event of an earth quake like that of 1934 scale. Almost all buildings will collapse and people will be trapped within their houses," said engineer Bharat Sharma. "Had we strictly followed the mitigation plan prepared after 1934 quake, Kathmandu valley would not have been forced to fear any tremor." Nearly a hundred years ago, a plan was prepared to reduce the seismic hazards and a monument was built to remind the impact of great earthquake. Subsequent policy-makers virtually ignored the red signals. Their negligence came to light only last year when Earthquake Safety Day was observed. The day was observed with the joint efforts of NSET-Nepal, senior government officials, politicians and experts. The preparation of Kathmandu Valley Earthquake Risk Management Action Plan is one of the important steps in minimizing the magnitude of risk. "Although other parts of the country, too, are vulnerable, geological position increases the risk in Kathmandu valley," said Madhav Raj Pandey, chief of National Seismological Center. Valleys are at greater risk in the geologically volatile Himalayas where small tremors are recorded every day. National Seismological Center recorded about 12,000 seismic events in 1998 including 8,000 regional tremors. In 1996 and 1997, high number of seismic activities were recorded by the center. The recorded tremors were above 2 Richter scales. The center records the teleseismic events that affect area of 1000 K.M radius with the valley as its center. The center has now national networking centers to collect seismic information. Experts predict that Kathmandu Valley may be jolted by a disastrous tremor before the year 2034. Geologically, earthquake is a regular phenomenon of earth and it is natural for a country like Nepal where young Himalayas are gaining height owing to the creation of many big and small faults within the territory. According to geologists, the continuing northward motion of Indian plate at the rate of about 5 cm per year induced widespread deformation and faulting and thrusting of its rocks at the collision front giving rise to world's highest mountains. "Intense seismic activities in Asia and particularly along the Himalayan arc, are related to this ongoing process," said Pandey. The large scale thrusting developed from north to south in the last 25 million years giving rise to the main central thrust separating the lesser Himalayas from the higher Himalayas, main boundary thrust separating the lesser Himalayas from the sub Himalayas of Churia range and main frontal thrust systems. Bigger the magnitude of an earthquake, the greater is its destruction potential. Magnitude of an earthquake is expressed in Richter scale. The unplanned construction of buildings in Kathmandu valley does not need bigger earthquake for disaster. Even a smaller one can damage considerably. Nepal lies in the boundary of two tectonic plates of India and Tibet. Indian plate is slowly moving towards north. "Earthquakes can not be controlled but the hazards of earth quakes can be assessed and disasters mitigated. One of the aims of the NSET-Nepal is to evaluate the likelihood of occurrence of an earthquake. Experiences have shown that smaller the magnitude of earthquakes the more frequent is their occurrence. Lately, frequency of quakes have been less in Kathmandu leading experts to expect some bigger quake. "We need to look at what happened in Turkey. What happened there is what we can expect to happen in Kathmandu valley," said Dixit. Although people of different strata are horrified after watching the earth quake of Turkey, what lesson the officials have learnt from the devastation is yet to be seen. Even if officials and people are now gaining some awareness about
the situation, it is, experts say, too late and too difficult to correct it. ‘A Big Tremor Is Likely’ — Madhav Raj Pandey
MADHAV RAJ PANDEY, chief of National Seismological Center at the Department of Mines and Geology, has been working to expand the seismological network in the country. After the big termor at Turkey, Pandey spoke to SPOTLIGHT on different issues of seismological activities in the country. Excerpts: What are the possibilities of earthquake in the Kathmandu valley? If you see the impact of great earthquake of 1834 and 1934, it shows that Kathmandu is one of the most vulnerable places in the Kingdom. Although, whole of Nepal is geologically prone to earth quakes, they valley has been hit the hardest in terms of damage by earthquakes. There is no doubt that earth quake is inevitable in the valley. So far as time and date is concerned, it is unpredictable. According to seismologists, a massive earth quake may hit western region of the country at any time since that region had not seen such a quake in the past 500-600 years. Quake is necessary to maintain geological balance. What can be done now? We cannot control earth quakes but we can minimize its effect. There are various opinions on how to start mitigation efforts. Over the last two decades, we have seen large number of natural disasters and its effect on the society. The experiences have shown that man cannot go against the law of nature. This is the point we have to consider in preparing mitigation plan. Our mitigation plan must be sustainable to our economy and society. Earth quake is related to drought and flood. We must be prepared to face natural disasters like earth quake. It is not the quake which kills people but it is the people themselves who try to go against nature. What is the sustainable mitigation? If you want to develop sustainable mitigation plans, it must be in consonance with nature and geology. We know the central Kathmandu was once a lake basin. The motion of a tremor is amplified in such basins. It means the duration of shaking becomes longer. We have seen in Turkey what happens if duration of shaking increases. In 1934's great quake, the shaking duration was about 4-5 minutes. We don't know how quake behaves in place like ours. We are yet to understand well the detail science of earth quake. In such an uncertain situation, every one has to think how much money do we need to invest. We must strictly enforce building code while constructing buildings of mass occupancy like hospitals and schools. We must not allow the construction of buildings that are more than two-storey high. At a time when nobody really knows about the behavior of a quake, no technology can guarantee against quake. Besides the great quake of 1934, we have already seen two quakes in the last three decades. What have we learnt from these two quakes? National Seismological Center is just a research center. We study what is the process of earth quake and how it occurs. We also study the relations between great earth quakes and other smaller tremors. We have many active seismological belts. Our center monitors all kinds of small quakes. We are trying to learn the effects of such quakes. The studies have shown that the quake in Bajhang and Udayapur occurred in different contexts. If earth quake similar to that of Bajhang had occurred in Udayapur, the damage would have been much higher. The epicenter in Udayapur was much deeper compared to Bajhang. The frequency of quakes in western region is higher. The quake measuring 6.5 Richter scale occurs every twenty years. In 1980, 1985, 1991 and 1998, there were quakes in Bajhang, Almoda, Utter Kashi and Chanali respectively. There were quakes in every fifty kilometers. What does it mean? These quakes are linked with another great quake. The process indicates, big quake is likely. Only question is its timing. All these small tremors are part of a great quake. After the establishment of the center, how many earth quakes above 4 Richter scale have been recorded? The center records every quake measuring above 2 Richter scale from around the world. We have recorded 25 thousands tremors in the last five years within 1000 K.M radius from Kathmandu. Among such tremors, 40 percent were recorded from Nepal. Annually, we have 5,000 quakes. We recorded in average 40-50 tremors measuring above 4 Richter scale. When there is a long gap in tremors, it may be an indication for another big quake. Two months before great quake in Turkey, only a few quakes occurred globally. I had imagined that there will be great quake soon in any part of the world. We had a quake in Dolkha seven days before Turkey. Our record showed that frequency of quake in Himalayan regions including other parts of the world for the past two months was very low before the great quake in Turkey. What will be the proportion of damage, if quake like that of 1934 were to rock the Kathmandu valley? If such scale quake hits the valley, the damage will be incalculable. The tall buildings will suffer more damage. This is the reason I have been saying that no building for mass occupancy above two storeys should be allowed to be constructed. Over 70 percent buildings here are vulnerable to quake. How do you see the public consciousness level? People are becoming more conscious about earth quake and polices and programs are also developing in this direction. But many people ignore it because the time of quake is uncertain. Experts have already told the risk of the quake. There are building codes but the implementation is very poor. The government should follow the guidelines of earth quake safety in bigger projects. Our work is just to study the quake. It is the duty of structural engineers to design buildings. There is no mechanisms to bring contractors and structural engineer together. This is a profit-oriented society. Which are the most vulnerable zones? Every ecological zones have their own scale of
vulnerability. We don't have detail study about the seismological vulnerability. We have
very small budget. We had received French cooperation to build the national network. ‘Villages Are Safer To Live’ — Astaman Tandukar Astaman Tandukar, 79, a resident of Koteshwor was 16 when the great earth quake of 1934 rocked the valley. Tandukar realized the tremor when an oil bottle fell from the table. Tandukar recalls the dark cloud and dust coming from Lalitpur city during that time. He shared his feeling of great earth quake with KESHAB POUDEL. Excerpts: What do you recall about the great earth quake? It was terrible as land shook like a cradle for quite a long time. I heard the sound "earth quake, earth quake" from my mother. Was your house damaged? Luckily, houses in Koteshwor were totally safe and there were few casualties. We had a thatched hut. Most of the houses in this city were covered with such thatch. Only tall and brick-made houses in the city were destroyed. What happened after the quake? We went to Patan next day and I saw dead bodies lying everywhere. Houses were reduced to rubble and there was liquefaction in the river sides in the city. What did the officials do? At that time we didn't have radio and other systems of communication. After few months, we were asked to visit Singha Durbar and prove if something was lost. Did you lose any of your relatives? I did not lose any of our relatives because all of them lived in village. Villages are safe to live during the quake. Can you imagine what will happen if such quake repeats again? I don't think we will survive. The place is now totally unsafe as my house is surrounded by tall concrete buildings. If you know thatched houses are safer, then why did you allow your offsprings to build concrete building? All my neighbors built concrete houses saying it is
safe for earth quake. How could I ask my sons to build small houses. |
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