INTERNATIONAL

The glue that holds the Germans together

-Dr. Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann, Germany

"We are facing a pile of ruins", Lothar Gall, the historian, said. That was almost at the end of a one-day symposium on the topic. "The glue that holds us together in Germany"’, organized by ZDF television last summer to mark the tenth anniversary of reunification. Professor Dieter Stolte, the head of ZDF, explained the aims of the symposium: the idea was to be in a better position to answer the question "What does the inner cohesion of our nation consist of?/ How tightly, or how loosely have the stitches of reunification now been sewn by the east and the West?/ What direction must our society move in?/" There was a long series of gloomy statements. Ex-president von Weizsacker did his best to brighten things up:; "It is the past and the future which holds us together-glory and remorse." Right at the end, Marcel Reich-Ranicki applied some discipline to create a certain degree of order: "We are held together by three things-commerce-the past-culture".

Since April 1990, the Allenbacher Institute has been interviewing 2000 Germans, a representative cross-section of society:" Is German reunification more a reason for you to rejoice or more a cause of concern"? Every month, the same result was repeated in Eastern and Western Germany. A large majority of Eastern Germans always said "More a reason to rejoice"’. And, with a short interruption from 1992 to 1994, the West Germans also regularly responded "More a reason to rejoice". Now, in summer 1999, 48 % of West Germans said "More a reason to rejoice" against 28% saying "More a cause of concern".

In a test of which concepts were associated with good feelings and which with bad, 70% of those asked in August/September 1999 said they associated the word "reunification" with good feelings; 19% said "bad"’. In the spring 1999 survey, people were asked what they hoped for most, and out of 17 wishes one of the top hopes, ranked third in both Western and Eastern Germany, was "That German unity might succeed".

The strongest signal which emerged from the demonstrations in Leipzig in autumn 1989 and which has gone down in German history forever was the cry "We are one people". For a time, it looked as though this realisation had got lost after unification. In 1994, an Allenbacher survey for the first time asked: "What do you think? Do you feel this slogan is apt or misplaced today? The majority of West Germans-50% with 30% against-said in 1994: "It still applies today". 24% said, "it is misplaced" in the survey conducted in late August/September 1999, which forms the basis for this report.

Proverbs bear witness to shared roots. Ten were tested in the survey. Half were known by more than 80% of West and East Germans, and only in two cases was the percentage of those familiar with that particular saying more than 10% apart. The question, "Which of these sayings do you fully agree with, which can you subscribe to from your own experience? Arrived at the same results.

"’Speech is silver, silence is golden" :50% of West Germans and 58% of East Germans put this saying in the first place. "Those who dig a trap for others will fall in themselves": 43% of West Germans and 41% of East Germans said "I can confirm that from my own experience". "Ingratitude is the reward of this world": "that is true," said 46% of Western and 53% of East Germans. A family likeliness is already apparent:; the skepticism, the suspicion, the distrust.

But there is also pride, no matter how restrained. Asked straight whether they are proud of their nationality, fewer Germans say yes than any other nation. The shared history is a heavy burden.

But when asked more cautiously about what can one be proud of as German, the views of Western and Eastern Germans coincide almost entirely. They are proud of the rebuilding after the war (87% of the western and 83% of the eastern Germans). They are proud of Goethe, Schiller, the great poets and of Bethoven, Bach, the classical composers.

The same goes for medieval towns and churches, the beautiful landscapes, the achievements of German sportsmen and women, German science and research, cars from the Federal Republic and the quality of German products in general, "made in Germany".

The family likenesses are particularly striking in all matters affecting children: how to bring up a child, what to influence children about, what table manners children should learn. This is an indirect reflection of the system of values of our society and it is another sign of the similarity between eastern and western Germans.

Since we know the extent to which totalitarian regimes try to affect the upbringing of children, an Allenbacher survey from July 1999 asked about childhood memories. The answers from the east and west Germany were then broken down into the decades in which those surveyed group grew up, the fifties, the sixties, and so on. The childhood memories did change from decade to decade, but did not differ between east and west Germany. In fact, the answers were so similar that it was as though Germany had never been divided.

The greatest surprise was the discovery of just how similar the characteristics of western and eastern Germans were after reunification. The idiosyncrasy of the western Germans, known to us mainly from comparisions with other Europeans, is the particular intensity, the "bound less rejoicing/total depression" which can be demonstrated in a test developed by the Chicago based scientist Norman Bradburn. This very same intensity and this moving from one extreme to the other was equally to be found in the Eastern Germans, as was the perfectionism, the tendency of men to play around with gadgets and the absolute "Here I stand, I can do no other", as Luther put it, which many western and eastern Germans regard as their personal ideal.

So what it is that holds the Germans together? Perhaps it can be put very simply. Perhaps it is even the most important feature if one wishes to describe a nation is : the Germans want to live together.

( Text courtesy: Embassy of Germany, Kathmandu).

The Celtic Tiger - About to be slain?

- By Sean McKiernan Junior.

(I am a student of the Irish Institute of Public Administration, and am aware of your Newspaper via its online edition. I wondered would you be so kind as to consider this item below on the Irish Economy for your international news/analysis section. Thanking you, and with every best wish; Sean McKiernan Junior. "Trinity Bungalow", Virginia Road, Bailieborough, Co. Cavan, Irish Republic. )

Last week the Central Bank of the Irish Republic issued its most dire warning yet regarding the outlook for Ireland’s rapidly expanding economy, nicknamed the ‘Celtic Tiger’ of Europe. It cautioned that "the Irish economy is increasingly vulnerable to a sharp slowdown in growth."

Since the mid 1990’s the Irish economy has registered strong and vibrant growth, averaging this year at 8.75%. Employment has increased by 40% since 1994, and there are now significant budget surpluses in contrast to the bankruptcy which faced public finances as little as 10 years ago. This new air of caution comes following the recently unveiled budgetary policy of Ireland’s centre right Government headed by Prime Minister Bertie Ahern of the Fianna Fail Party. The Bank is obviously unhappy with the stimulus the economy has been given through more tax cuts in Budget 2001, significant spending increases, and an increase in wages due to massive industrial unrest across the key sectors of air, rail, bus and lorry transport workers, teachers and nurses, all of whom are dissatisfied with the eroding effect of inflation on their already meagre pay.

There is a general consensus that fiscal ideas, suitable to a society with high unemployment and unused capacity, are being applied to a society where there is overheating, overcrowded infrastructure, massive industrial unrest in addition to widening social inequality and a polarisation of wealth. The Bank's warning comes on foot of some economists' concerns at the extraordinarily high levels of personal debt incurred by Irish citizens, resulting from runaway housing prices and a rise in the cost of living.

Inflation is now a major factor in the Irish economy. It reached 7% for the month of November, 3 times the European average, but it is predicted that it will average at 5% for the whole year. The Government’s proposed £4 billion package of extra spending and tax cuts announced at the start of this month have been widely proclaimed by Finance Minister Charlie McCreevy as a significant action in combating inflation. However, the Irish Central Bank warns that the budgetary measures will add 1% to consumer prices, while the cuts in Value Added Tax and fuel duties will eliminate only 0.5%. However, if the new Euro currency rises, and rates for home loans fall next year - as many believe they will, inflation should however be lower than the bank's forecasts of 5.5%. It is the accepted view of Minister McCreevy that it is the underperformance of the Euro (making the imports necessary for Ireland’s growing consumerism more expensive), plus the global rise in oil prices, which have more effect on inflation than budgetary policy. But the Irish Central Bank believes around half the inflation is generated within the domestic arena, particularly within the services industry, which has been hit particularly hard by wage demands. The cost of wage increases generally must be past on in price hikes to the Irish consumer, since much of Ireland’s rapid economic growth does not actually stem from an increase in productivity, but rather an increase in the working population in Ireland. Their is a stark contrast between the record unemployment in 1994 and nearly full employment today. The demand for labour was generated in the interim by a proliferation of American multi-national companies, particularly in the IT sector, availing of lucrative grants and tax breaks to set-up their European headquarters, call centres and key production facilities in Ireland.

Inflation, house prices, credit problems and growth are all very vulnerable to the increasing demand created by the Government's polices, the Bank warned in its winter bulletin. This month’s budget has injected additional demand into an economy that is already running at full capacity, without taking any measures to increase that capacity. The Irish economy is currently suffering from severe labour shortages and inadequate infrastructure, it is estimated that traffic congestion will suck £1 billion from the economy this year.

Last week’s announcement by the US Federal Reserve’s Alan Greenspan and President Elect George W. Bush that there was now a risk of a sharp downturn in the US economy, and even recession, is of concern for the Irish Government also. Even a small downturn in the US will have repercussions for Ireland’s potential to attract the American investment that is the cornerstone of the Irish economic miracle. In addition it will weaken demand and spending power in the US markets, effecting Irish exporters, since the US is close to overtaking the United Kingdom’s dominant position as the destination for most Irish exports. Many will be hoping that indications of Mr Greenspan and the US Federal Reserve cutting US interest rates in the near future, in a bid to sustain a reasonable level of growth in the US, are implemented for Ireland’s sake.

Another danger is a reversal in the fortunes of the Euro; a sudden recovery in its price will result in obvious pressure for Ireland’s exporters, whilst ironically easing inflationary fears. These concerns were echoed in the Irish Central Bank’s analysis.

It would be foolish and unduly pessimistic to take the warnings of the Irish Central Bank as a portent for impending recession on that island. However it serves as a timely wake up call for a nation justifiably proud of its newfound economic success, but as a result hostile to criticism, irrespective of whether or not it is constructive. Until now the general Irish population has been quite oblivious to the small, open nature of its economy, and the susceptibility to international trends, particularly the health of the US economy and the related Dollar to Euro exchange rate.