Indepth Analysis

Challenges for Sher Bahadur Deuba numerous!

Kathmandu: Girija Koirala sources calculatedly leak that the sudden resignation of the Prime Minister was a result of the differences with the Royal Palace on the use of the Army at Rolpa among others. The fact that the resignation was sudden is revealing in the sense that the party, the family and the coterie were caught unaware of the Prime Minister making secret summons to the official media, read the Radio Nepal and Nepal Television, where his outgoing speech was relayed directly with even the covering mediamen unaware of the sudden summons to Baluatar.

This is in contrast to the adamant posture of the Prime Minister merely the previous morning refusing to yield to demands for a resignation. Constitutionally, G.P.Koirala was the leader of the majority party in parliament. The fact that Koirala remains strong is born in the 40 votes he secured for his handpicked nominee-the party general secretary Sushil Koirala. The new Prime Minister Deuba's 72 votes is largely a result of patchwork compromises triggered by GPs sudden withdrawal. It is this that is likely to be Deuba's source of doom.

Indeed, this decisive parliamentary session has now not only ousted the Girija hard-line but has put as parliamentary party leader and prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba in a position where he is unlikely to get positive support from not only 40 members of his own parliamentary party who clearly remain with Girija hard-line. Moreover, his party president and party general secretary are likely to be antagonistic to the new government. The new Deuba cabinet on the other hand is largely likely to be a result of compromises. This suggests that the ouster of the congress strongman may most likely have yielded a weak government.

This is of course, if Deuba remains by himself. His test will be in how he garners the opposition Left support anticipated on the basis of the indirect support Koirala's party opposition received from the Left in parliament and outside. Whether or not there is this unseen alignment will be reflected this session itself. Deuba can't but begin producing results on the matter of talks with the Maoists where Rolpa has been the biggest embarrassment. Among other things, a change in policy must emanate regarding the use of the Army given the deadlock at Rolpa.

Moreover, Deuba must set about producing the much-demanded political dialogues with the insurgents. For the UML opposition moreover, it will be how Deuba handles the much blown up corruption charges will perhaps be the condition of support.

All in all therefore, the new Prime Minister has a hornet's nest to tackle at the very outset. Girija babu's sudden resignation is designed to catch him on the wrong foot.

Of particular consequence will be the Koirala insinuations on the new monarchy. Given the congress history opposition activity within the congress will now center on the politics of the Palace. Anticipatory moves have already begun charging that Deuba will sell out to the Palace. This, regardless of the calculated Palace stand as the lone stickler to the constitution. It is revealing that only the congress, particularly Koirala sources, make derogatory remarks linking the Palace to the Rolpa stalemate.

Deuba's 'in-party detractors' already in action

Kathmandu: Nepal's beleaguered politics has taken a sigh of relief.

The relief understandably has dawned in the nation due to the sudden exit of Prime Minister Koirala from the chair he loved most.

However, things will not change much presumably with Koirala's ouster or say with his voluntary resignation.

The fact is that Prime Minister Koirala has handed over the mantle of the state-affairs to his nearest and dearest political "foe" Sher Bahadur Deuba at a time when the nation has plunged into a deep political crisis.

The crises are, among others, the Maoists were on the killing rampage; the security personnel unfortunately possess low morale due to the excessive loss in their camps; the military forces sent to Rolpa have perhaps their own story to tell; the entire opposition led by the UML demand a speedy recovery in the almost lost law and order situation in the country; the business in the tourism sector practically is an all time low; the congress party remains divided in as many possible groups as could be thought of and more so the common people have already developed a distaste towards the system now in force.

Thus, the new throne of the new Prime Minister is not the proverbial 'bed of roses'.

While the temptation of occupying the chair of the Prime Minister is one thing, leading the country out of the grips of the present malaise is entirely different.

However, the pleasant mood seen in the Deuba camp, more so among the sycophants, will soon presumably fade away when the Deuba detractors well within his own party start criticizing at the moves of the new Prime Minister in the latter's bid to initiate talks with the Maoists insurgents.

Indications to this effect have already started trickling in from NC quarters. For example, the all-time frustrated congress leader, Ms. Shailaja Acharya, addressing a gathering Monday afternoon wished to pass on certain satirical comments onto the new Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba.

"Deuba is the Prime Minister who is liked by the Maoists and would be obeyed by the Military", said Acharya.

One has not to press brains to get the gist of her saying which presumably possesses plenty of hints which in one way or the other could be the collective "thinking" of the entire anti-Deuba camp in the congress.

It is in general practice in the congress party that as and when the Koirala family wishes to express their things but can't do so for obvious reasons, Ms. Acharya or the likes come to their rescue.

Hence what could be summarized is that the present satires on Deuba could well be the internal feelings of the freshly ousted Prime Minister Koirala.

Add to this the rumors in Kathmandu intellectual circuit which maintains that "Koirala had to resign because he had developed a sort of sharp difference with the new monarch over the use of the Nepali Army in Rolpa and that when the King outrightly denied the army use there, Koirala preferred to resign".

The tragedy in Nepal is that the Royal Palace neither issues contradictions nor prefers to come out with statements. Under such circumstances the people generally are forced to believe the circulated versions.

While we can't speculate as to what could have transpired in between the King and his Prime Minister on this regard before the resignation episode, however, intellectuals say that there were some other reasons which forced Koirala to resign.

Notably, they say, when the RPP and more specifically the Nepal Sadbhavana Party decided not to support the Koirala regime in the parliament, Koirala got the point.

NSPs support or denial of the support to any regime in Kathmandu is significant, said one intellectual who is closely watching the NSP political overtures especially after the advent of this system.

There could also be the reason that when Koirala sensed that his internal support-base was eroding, he preferred to resign. "In doing so, Koirala could save some face in the party organization and could enjoy more love and respect in the party if he treats all equally", added another intellectual.

Moreover, Koirala could have resigned, say Opposition sources, when he sensed the mood of the UML led opposition that they would continue to disrupt the ongoing session much the same manner as they did with the previous session.

Interpretations could vary from person to person regarding the ouster of Koirala. However, the hard reality is that Koirala is already out and that the nation has another Prime Minister.

The national population has every rationalism to rejoice at his ouster. However, equally true is the fact which we all have to gulp is that things were not that easy as we might have imagined of.

In essence, the politics of the nation has become so "clumsy" that it would be pretty difficult for Deuba to make it upright straight without inviting satirical remarks from his own party and from other responsible quarters.

The messages lie in between these lines. However a clue for the readers. Many a congressmen well within the party itself dub Sher Bahadur Deuba as "Royal Congress man" for his having matrimonial relations with one Rana family that is relation wise close to the Nepali Royal family.

Poor Deuba indeed!

Comrade Prachanda reciprocates Deuba's appeal in lightening speed!

Kathmandu: What is in this new man very exclusive and special that the Maoists insurgents who have through their fiercest activities have practically paralyzed the whole nation since six years or so could at his maiden call "suspend" their entire guerrilla warfare and give the panic-stricken population to take a respite?

This is the general comment of the Kathmandu intellectuals regarding the new Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba whose Monday afternoon "appeal" made in the name of the Maoists tentatively for the latter to heed to his call and acted accordingly.

Deuba's fervent call for the Maoists to shun violence immediately and his appeal to the insurgents to come to the negotiating table has apparently been taken in a positive manner by the other camp.

Deuba's appeal was almost simultaneously reciprocated by Maoists movement Chairman, Comrade Prachanda alias Pushpa Kamal Dahal who has already notified his comrade-in-arms to bring to a total halt all the warfare tactics currently being utilized to harass the police force and ultimately the government in Kathmandu.

The sudden change in the insurgents' overtures towards Sher Bahadur Deuba assumes special significance in the aftermath of the ouster of Prime Minister Koirala last week.

Scores of questions abound regarding this sudden "lovely" posture acquired by Maoists towards Deuba who has not even taken his oath of office and is yet to form his cabinet.

However, what is for sure is that the insurgents from the very beginning considered Deuba-Bhattarai combine as comparatively liberal than Koirala.

The fact is also that Koirala as the leader of the government always took the insurgency as "terrorist" in nature. Contrary to that the Deuba-Bhattarai duo considered it as a political problem.

Besides this Koirala and his tentative 'hardline coterie' considered the insurgency as a disease that needed surgical operation through the use of the guns and bullets while his opposition pushed the idea of dialogues which was tentatively backed by the entire political spectrum including the lay population.

Encouraged by the sentiments of the political parties, common men and of the Bhattarai-Deuba duo perhaps the insurgents concluded that the King could never send the army to contain their threats in the far-flung districts. However, things went against the insurgents. The army was sent but could do little to rescue the kidnapped policemen in dozens and dozens. The ground reality in Rolpa at the moment is yet unknown to the common men but it is becoming apparently clear that the army would still wish not to press their triggers against the Maoists.

Under such situation, the present Deuba overtures and his call for dialogue and the insurgents' ready-made acceptance has got to be watched.

That Deuba can move ahead on his own could be taken for granted. In the past, Deuba under the command of the then Premier Bhattarai had, we were told then, enjoyed "one-to-one quiet dinner" with top hats of the insurgency at some Hotel in Patan. This means that Deuba personally knows them and could yet again invite the two top hats for "constructive and meaningful dialogue" through the use of little efforts of his own sources.

However, Deuba has tremendous limitations. For he can not exceed his limits as the nation's Prime Minister and could only talk well within the framework of the constitution.

However, the Maoists will demand much more from him, which he can't, and hence yet another deadlock. Because the insurgents will perhaps not "settle for less" because their ultimate demand is frightening.

Nevertheless, the dialogue process must resume at the earliest.

Notably, Deuba's seriousness for talks is understandable because it was during his stewardship of the nation that the insurgents entered the jungles.

That Deuba needs cooperation from all the segments of the society including the international community is predictable. More so he needs real support from his detractors in his own mysterious party.

Undeniably, Deuba is a person who enjoys sympathy from all and sundry including hopefully from the Palace as well. Deuba could play a meaningful role in between the government, the Maoists, taking the opposition parties into confidence on matters of national concerns and the Royal Palace.

Deuba's political acumen awaits serious test

Kathmandu: The new Prime Minister awaits several trials in the days ahead.

Indeed his first test would be seen today when he forms his maiden cabinet. The people together with the entire opposition would wish to see a small and effective cabinet under Sher Bahadur Deuba.

To recall, it was during Deuba's previous tenure as Prime Minister that a cabinet as big as Jumbo-Jet was formed and the intention being simply to continue in power. Notably, Deuba is also infamous for inviting all the ills into this system including the Pajero/Prado culture and the most horrible buying/selling of the lawmakers.

However, contrary to people's expectations, the size of the cabinet would be rather big ultimately for obvious reasons. This will instantly annoy the political parties and the common men.

Secondly the intellectuals wish that Deuba's new team does not include the "already declared corrupts of the nation". However, this Deuba can't do simply because it were these a few notorious personalities who have in essence elevated Deuba this round to the present post.

Rumors have it that Deuba's cabinet will include, among others, one minister who possess a dozen of posh buildings in Kathmandu; one minister who brought two truck-load of Chicken/Hen from neighboring India at time of his son's marriage; one minister who feels comfortable in jumping the walls during unearthly hours and creates ugly scenes; one minister who only during five years in government now is a multi-millionaire and finally one would be powerful minister who deliberate or otherwise talked Nepal be declared as a republican state. However, he later retracted from his earlier stand.

With such a team in offing, perhaps it would be pretty difficult for Deuba to bag sympathies from all segment of the society.

This will undoubtedly invite wrath from the common men and intellectuals alike. The UML strongman Madhav Nepal has already aired his views in this regard.

Thirdly, Deuba can't satisfy all the NC lawmakers and award portfolios in the cabinet and hence he will definitely bring in those who either supported him this round or possess the potential to avert the artificial crises that could "any moment" suddenly grip him from "known party rival quarters".

Failing to include as many lawmakers as would approach him for ministerial berths could well be the beginning of the worst days for Deuba in government. Should this dissatisfied camp of the congress lawmakers join the anti-Deuba camp, the number 72 could drop dramatically. Notably, congress MP are known for changing of their allegiances from one camp to the other should a good bargain accompany the affair. If that happens then Deuba, as Prime Minister would simply consume his time and energy to keep him safe from any untoward event which means that the national issues will take a back seat and this what happened with Koirala.

Much will also depend on the personalities who will be included in the Deuba kitchen cabinet. For good results Deuba must have good men.

What will be watched with keen interest is, with malice to none, Dr. Arzoo Deuba's possible unnecessary penetration or say influence into the politics of the state affairs and the likes. This is simply because the women folks belonging to the power corridors have more often than not have misused the power around them which perhaps all know.

All put together, Deuba's political acumen and his ability to steer the nation will be tested from today itself.

US official Nepal visit meaningful!

Kathmandu: Political pundits of the capital district attach great significance and importance to the visit of the U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for South Asia, Ms. Christina Rocca to Nepal.

The timing of the US dignitary's Nepal visit is simply very interesting in the sense that at time of her Nepal landing there would be no cabinet presumably in the host country.

Secondly, it is also very interesting to note that she would now be greeted perhaps by Nepal's new Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba instead of Prime Minister Koirala who voluntarily resigned last week.

Thirdly, Ms. Rocca is in Nepal at a time when the new leadership in Kathmandu is all set to resume the abruptly suspended talks with the Maoists insurgency.

The United States apparently wishes that dialogues prevailed so that peace is restored in the Kingdom.

Ms. Rocca's visit is also important in the sense that Nepal is the host to the now suspended eleventh SAARC Summit. The US wishes that the SAARC summits resumed at the earliest.

Shital Nivas sources divulge that Nepal has already forwarded the possible dates for the convening of the SAARC Summit in Kathmandu.

Though the details of Ms. Rocca's program has not been made available to the media men, however, intellectuals opine that she might listen to the Nepalese leaders' view on the recently held Agra Summit (India-Pakistan summit) which apparently "failed".

The US official might also be interested in knowing the present state of Nepal's ties with her immediate neighbors, India and China.

With the sudden change in government in Nepal, the Bush Administration official would presumably wish to ascertain whether there were the possibilities of the Chinese assisting the Maoists insurgency or not?

That the US is pretty concerned with the Maoists insurgency in Nepal gets reflected from Ms.Rocca's interview with Phillip Kurta wherein she says: (sic)"The country also is under stress from the Maoists insurgency". See last page for the text of the interview-editor.

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