Had the political parties demonstrated the same sense of mutual political understanding, sense of commitment to pledges and agreements that they used to evince in pre-Constituent Assembly election period and People's Movement II, it could be comfortably predicted that PP deal and C are both within one month-reach.

Top politicos of Nepal sound these days highly optimistic in their expression on Peace Process (PP). Prime Minister Dr. Baburam Bhattarai pledged publicly at a Chhath-Tihar-Bakr-Id- get together in Janakpur "the first draft of the Constitution (C) will be made public by November 30, 2011," the last day of the present extension of the Constituent Assembly. He believes that political parties would finalize, by then, the much awaited PP pact.

His party boss – UCPN-Maoist Chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda) – looks equally buoyant in his public appearances and rhetoric. He has of late taken the ownership of PP so seriously that he publicly terms it as "his responsibility" because of being the sole surviving member of two signatories of the Comprehensive Peace Accord concluded on November 21, 2006 (the other is: late Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala). Prachanda seeks to finish the deal for PP before he leaves for New York on November 5 because, he hopes, the move would give him much needed credential for peace in his discussion with the UN on, among others, Lumbini-Development.

The verbal milieu created for PP by the top Maoist leaders has impressed most politicians including CA Chairman Subhash Nemwang. This has motivated him to request all top political leaders not to leave capital city. The Speaker's emergency-like whip has been fueled by the latest positive words on PP by Maoist leadership. Moreover, it serves as a reminder of the urgent need for PP deal prior to November 30. The House cannot remain animated after that date unless its tenure is extended through political consensus which is simply impossible without tangible PP deal because of the stand that Nepali Congress has been taking in this regard. Â

Listening to Nemwang promptly, Sushil Koirala, President of NC, a key Opposition Party, has promised not to leave Kathmandu for a month. The move could be taken as an instrument for facilitating or pressing Maoist leaders, to translate their peace-discourse into real action of settling the issue of integration of Maoist combatants. The CPN UML, another major Opposition Party, is also backing NC in this regard in its own way.

Feeling rather comfortable over the way the leaders of three of Big Four Parties in CA are talking PP, Deputy Prime Minister Bijaya Kumar Gachhadar predicted confidently in East Nepal the other day that the tenure of CA would be extended by three to six months. As a leader of one of the Madhesh Parties, which together occupy the fourth position in CA, Gachhadar knows well: the issue of extension of CA term is linked with specific PP deal: parties' agreement on the number of Maoist combatants to be integrated, the golden handshake package for those who opt for rehabilitation, etc.

Tactics

How to interpret the latest rosy political atmospherics? Does it indicate: completion of PP is next door? Could it really denote erosion of the great obstacle that has hindered the act of final scripting of C for such a long time? Or is the whole scenario simply a façade of things that are not visible?

Had the political parties demonstrated the same sense of mutual political understanding, sense of commitment to pledges and agreements that they used to evince in pre-Constituent Assembly election period and People's Movement II, it could be comfortably predicted that PP deal and C are both within one month-reach. But the way they have been behaving (or misbehaving) and talking (or babbling) in times after CA poll does not allow one to interpret current political panorama that positively.

Factors such as series of differences, and misunderstandings among parties, unhealthy politics and top leaders' failure to give direction to parties' youths and maintain their own houses in democratic order also do not permit analysts to be more hopeful. The fact that the Big Four have not engaged other 28 political parties represented in the CA in the whole exercise manifests their highhandedness and may raise in future questions that might puncture the consensus needed for institutionalizing PP and C.

But this is not to suggest that the present show of optimism carries no value. It actually has some positive signals that indicate some breakthrough in a month. The compromise, as discussed by senior leaders in public forum, specifies the number of Maoist combatants to be integrated (some 6,000) and the golden handshake rehabilitation package (in the vicinity of Rs.700,000) should be appreciated. If it is finalized, it could be termed a great step forward indeed to the logical end of PP. Much can be built on it as time passes by.

Yes, it has a rather dark side too. The latest political landscape crafted by the Big Four Parties - two ruling and two opposition - could be no more than a tactical measure to develop a rationale, nay excuse, for extending the CA tenure for another term of three to six months. It might be just a way to provide some sort of lollypop-like raison d'etre to people to justify another extension. It could serve as the parties' tool to convince people in the country and friends abroad about why the life of CA has been extended. It might also work as a bypass to the objection to continued extension of CA by some in legal front.

People in general have by now been well acquainted with all these tactics of political parties. The media and political analysts have also sensitized them on these manipulations. They have been airing this positively through various forums as well. The public frustration itself is an expression of the same. But they have not yet found an appropriate way to ventilate their feeling. As a result of it, they have been compelled to be silent on-lookers of how their mandate is getting insulted each time the CA term is extended.

Benefit of doubt

As they prepare for the same dumb watching of CA-tenure extension in four weeks, it would, however, be better for them to give benefit of doubt to politicos one more time. It would not be undemocratic to expect some positive outcome this time when the country has an elected Maoist Prime Minister for the second time in four years. It would not be unfair to hope at a time when the largest single party of the CA is ruling and being led by none but a signatory of Peace Accord. It would not be illogical to anticipate at a time when powerful political forces committed to parliamentary democracy and peace are either co-ruling or presiding over opposition and also participating in PP deal.

It is time for all of them to be serious in delivery of PP deal and then C by translating newly emerged optimism for peace into a reality. If they miss the opportunity, how will they, in future, be able to take the challenge of public fury that is simmering day by day?

The writer can be reached at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it . Nepalnews.com Nov 1, 2011.

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