The decision to handover Maoist combatants, their weapons and the camps to Nepal Army was indeed unexpected. This may pave the way for the conclusion of one of the central issues of peace process. Up to this point, it is a decision that must be taken positively. With this, the charged atmosphere prevailing in cantonments for some time seems to have been eased, at least for the time being. This is, thus, more of a time to ruminate than it is to rejoice.

Reason

First, I think, the combatants opting out for   voluntary retirement and also the others realized that their dreams for   a sweeping socio-political transformation through revolution, for which they were lured and made to endure inexplicable hardships during the insurgency and later on in the cantonment were now completely shattered. They felt   a deep sense of political betrayal and anger against their leaders and the Chairman, in particular.

It was very painful for them to see their leaders bask in the comforts of Katmandu’s posh bungalows and enjoying a free ride on expensive government vehicles, while they were made to languish in the difficult life in the cantonments. Every passing day, it became increasingly clear to them that their leaders were simply selling them never- to- come- true dreams and that the revolutionary fervors displayed by their leaders once were mere rhetoric. They were more than convinced a new Nepal with a new   socio-political dispensation that they had aspired for was never going to materialize, at least under the present leadership.

Fiscal impropriety as alleged in the party may be the second reason of discontent. It was reported quite frequently that a large sum of money was deducted from the salary of the PLAs , which was never properly accounted for despite repeated  demands inside the party. While the Baidya faction continuously raised this issue, the other side maintained a stony silence and never bothered to come up with satisfactory explanation.   This brazen and insensitivity of the Chairman may have further contributed to the erosion of loyalty and respect of the PLAs toward him and his team.

The financial irregularity came to a head, when the commanders in the cantonments were reported to have openly and forcibly taken away a large portion of the money paid out for those PLAs who had opted for voluntary retirement. When approached and attention was drawn to this effect to the Prime-Minister, and also to the Chairman, no action was taken, save for verbal assurances.

The Baidya faction not only condemned openly the acts of those commanders who had taken the money forcibly and criticized the Government for not doing anything to redress the problem. It also put pressures on the Government and its Chairman to have the money thus taken returned to the rightful owners. This time around also, no credible action was   taken against offending commanders.

This was perhaps the weakest link that may ultimately have broken the chain of command   under the Chairman Prachanda. The deeply distressed PLAs in the cantonments may have by now become convinced that there was no point for them to remain loyal to a person as their commander, who is unsteady ideologically, unclean financially and the one who had no ear and heart to listen to and redress their due grievances. �

A lot of them had already vented out their resentments and angers openly through the media. The result of their frustration and dipping morale is manifest in their increased number now choosing the voluntary retirement. Many of those who had earlier opted for integration were now not sure they would get through the Nepal Army’s strenuous norms and standards for inclusion in the Army.  Nothing would be more humiliating for them than having declared unsuccessful by the Army they once fought on equal footing. Rather than suffer further humiliation, they may have thought it wiser to go for voluntary retirement.

The worsening security situation witnessed in the camp was perhaps the outcome of these reasons. Larger number of the PLAs opting for voluntary retirement, the incapacitated  and other vulnerable groups in the cantonments and the UNMIN -certified incompetent groups- all together  failed to see any political future for them under the present Chairman. �

No wonder, therefore, that they were slowly and surely grown disenchanted from their Chairman. The anger and frustration building up slowly within them may have   ultimately   compelled them to take resort to open insubordination.

Consequently, the security situation in all the cantonments had reportedly deteriorated to such an extent that the PLAs were even ready to stage a revolt by snatching and looting the weapons.  It can be fairly said that the Nepal Army’s timely intervention did indeed spare the Chairman Prachanda and his colleagues from a possible great humiliation, nationally and internationally.

Limited option

It is clear from the above that under the prevailing circumstances, the Chairman and his team had a very limited option on hand. In fact,   taking preemptive action to handover the cantonments to the Nepal Army without further delay was the only option available for the Chairman Prachanda. Therefore, his statement that he had taken a very bold step in favor of peace rings hollow. It would, therefore, be unfair to give him the wholesale credit and praise him to the sky for this outcome.

Everyone knows clearly that he has done this merely to save himself and his faction from the possible fall into the pit he may have dug for others. With this swift action, he may have saved his and his colleagues skin for now. But this may prove to be a temporary reprieve only, if attempts at addressing the root causes of the resentments are not made equally swiftly and prudently. Failure of which   may have a serious negative implication for the meaningful conclusion of the peace and constitution writing processes.

Losers and winners

This option may have two benefits for the PLAs who have chosen voluntary retirement option. Their personal freedom will be ensured and   they are free to choose whatever profession they may wish, independent of interference from their commander. Secondly, once out of the camp, they will be no longer bound to display allegiance to the party and its Chairman. �

Thus, Chairman Dahal and his team appear to be the biggest losers. The Chairman has lost the respect and esteem of the majority of the PLAs that he once enjoyed so absolutely. His bargaining power within and outside his party may have considerably weakened now that he has lost his grip over the PLAs. He is now a much weak and embattled leader in the Party.

Conversely, the Baidya faction, on the other hand may have been the largest beneficiaries. Perhaps, these people will have already been tacitly welcomed into his camp to fuel further the incomplete “peoples’ revolution”. Baidya and Ram Bahadur  Thapa and CP Gajurel have all along been openly  accusing  Chairman Prachanda and  Vice-Chairman Baburam Bhattarai  of sacrificing the PLAs simply to advance their personal interests at the beck and call  of what they term “ the feudalists, reactionaries ,  imperialists and the external  forces”.

And this faction already enjoys the support of a large number of YCL cadres, the PLAs- retired as well as waiting for integration in the Nepal Army- and the CA members.  Together, they have the potential to create enough trouble to unravel the peace and constitution writing processes in the immediate future. This faction may have now assumed a formidable clout and bargaining power vis-à-vis Chairman Dahal and his team.

Conclusion

In one of the stories, “The Speckled Band” the world famous detective “Sherlock Holmes” rightly observes, “Violence does, in truth, recoils upon the violent and the schemer falls into the pit which he digs for another.”   The serious breach in command and control in the PLAs cantonment does substantiate that  it is not possible achieve ones goal , however pious it may be, through a recourse  to  violence . It may ultimately boomerang on the violent. Those taught the language of violence will obviously speak the language of violence and act violently.

Clearly, the deep frustration and anger seen in the PLAs while  taking voluntary retirement  indicate the difficult time ahead.   Naturally, their ire and angst will be coming spontaneously and in a more virulent manner against their Chairman in the future. The backlash, therefore, may be extremely violent and more explosive.

Then there are those, wounded men and women combatants. They feel equally cheated and put to injustice as far as their rehabilitation packages given to them  are concerned.  No less embittered is the group declared incompetent earlier by the UNMIN during the verification process.  Still further, a sizable number of the YCL feel left out in cold and are obviously fuming. They all deeply believe that the Chairman Prachanda, the Vice-Chairman Baburam Bhattarai and their cohorts have merely used and left them in the lurch. They believe that their Chairman has   made   open   capitulations.

How is the Baidya faction going to respond to these developments in the days ahead? How are the Chairman Prachanda and Vice Chairman Baburam Bhattarai going to win them over to their side?  And most importantly, how are they going to  contain the possible threats that  may emanate from the thousands of the retired and unsatisfactory PLAs, if their legitimate grievances were left unmet? What guarantee is there that they will not be attracted by some illegal outfits to join them in the future?

Every effort, therefore, has to be made to win the confidence of the Baidya faction. All efforts should also be made to address the genuine demands of the retired PLAs and other dissatisfied groups. More than that, these groups of people must not be allowed to be lured into   violent activities by underground outfits.  This is where the Chairman, the Vice Chairman and Prime-Minister and his other colleagues need to exercise eternal vigilance. This is where the other big political parties, namely the NC, the UML and the Tarai Madhesi Morcha must  extend  cooperatation.

Similarly, the Maoist party has yet to pledge publicly that they have renounced violence for good. Its Chairman and other top leaders are still far from expressing atonement publicly for the death of thousands of innocent civilians in the decade-long and utterly futile insurrection that they waged in the past. Their commitments to the universal values of democracy and pluralism, respect for human rights and primacy of the rule of law are also yet come in a firm and explicit manner.

If the Maoist party and its Chairman can do so, perhaps then he may be termed as a leader truly transformed and committed to the cause of peace and constitution. The Maoist Party and its Chairman, in particular may have now grown wiser, having burnt his fingers rather badly in the fire of hatred he himself has   lighted.

For others and particularly the detractors of the Maoist Party, it is time not to revel in their setbacks but a time to ruminate seriously. It is also not the time to remain complacent.  For all of us, public, civil society members, intellectuals, the media and others, too, it is certainly a time to   remain seized of the challenges thrown by these sudden developments and lend our support and cooperation whatever way possible to help complete the peace and constitution writing processes within the stipulated deadline. This is the only way to   consolidating the gains of the janaandolana-2 and this will be the only way to making the peace and the constitution writing processes irreversible.

(Thapa is Former Chief of Protocol, Ministry of Foreign Affairs. He can be contacted at: This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it )